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Bitcoin Traders Now Target $120K as Bullish ‘Santa Claus Rally’ Gains Steam

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Bitcoin (BTC) set a fresh record above $106,000 earlier Monday, with traders now targeting the $120,000 level as the asset moves into the second half of a seasonally bullish December.

Recent catalysts that have supported growth in BTC include increased speculation of U.S. president-elect Donald Trump creating a federal bitcoin reserve, and crypto companies such as Riot Platforms and MicroStrategy purchasing billions worth of the asset in past weeks.

Optimism in U.S. policies are driving bitcoin ETFs inflows higher, contributing to increased prices, some point out.

“TradFi inflows now dominate all sentiment and price action in BTC unlike any other prior crypto cycle before,” shared Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA, in a Telegram message to CoinDesk. “This influence will only grow as more and more traditional firms finally need to have a digital asset policy given the immense revenue opportunities and sea-change in the political environment.”

Recent price action has shown bitcoin forming higher lows, indicative of a sustained uptrend. The formation of a bull flag or a bullish continuation pattern after recent highs could signal further upward movement.

This month tends to be historically bullish for bitcoin in a move that’s colloquially termed the «Santa Claus Rally.» Data from the past eight years shows that bitcoin ended December in the green six times since 2015, running at least 8% to as much as 46% (in the outlier year of 2020).

Seasonality is the tendency of assets to experience regular and predictable changes that recur every calendar year. While it may look random, possible reasons range from profit-taking around tax season in April and May, which causes drawdowns, to the generally bullish November and December, a sign of increased demand ahead of holiday season.

Meanwhile, some traders are now targeting the $120,000 level and above for BTC in the coming year.

“We think bitcoin still has tremendous upside potential and could easily hit the $125k mark by the end of 2025,” Jeff Mei, COO at crypto exchange BTSE, said over Telegram. “While some say the upside has already been priced in over the last month or so, we think the rally is just getting started.”

“This is because it takes time for institutions, family offices, and high-net-worth individuals to warm up to the idea of allocating 1%-3% of their portfolios to bitcoin and crypto as a whole. Once that happens, crypto inflows could skyrocket. And given Trump’s pro-crypto appointments, continued rate cuts, and stimulus spending from China, there are a lot of reasons to be bullish,” Mei added.

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Bitcoin ETF Inflows Surge as Basis Trade Nears 9%, Signaling Renewed Demand

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The U.S.-listed spot bitcoin BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $667.4 million in net inflows on May 19, the largest single-day total since May 2, signaling renewed institutional interest.

Nearly half of these inflows, $306 million, went into iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), now at $45.9 billion in net inflows, according to data source Farside Investors.

The renewed demand follows bitcoin’s strong price performance, having traded above $100,000 for 11 consecutive days, which has helped restore market confidence.

Additionally, the annualized basis trade, a strategy where investors go long on the spot ETF and simultaneously short bitcoin futures contracts on the CME, has become increasingly attractive with yields approaching 9%, almost double what was seen in April.

According to Velo data, this has sparked a modest uptick in basis trade activity as evidenced by an increase in trading activity in the CME futures.

On Monday, CME futures volumes hit $8.4 billion (roughly 80,000 BTC), the highest since April 23. Meanwhile, open interest stood at 158,000 BTC, up over 30,000 BTC contracts from April’s lows, further underscoring the growing appetite for leveraged and arbitrage strategies.

That said, both both futures volume and open interest remain well below the levels seen when bitcoin reach an all-time high of $109,000 in January, indicating there’s still significant headroom for further growth.

The upswing in the basis suggests the growth may be already happening, bringing back players that left the market early this year when the basis dropped to under 5%.

Recent 13F filings revealed that the Wisconsin State Pension Board exited its ETF position in the first quarter, likely in response to a then-less favorable basis trade environment. However, given that 13F data lags by a quarter and the basis spread has since widened from 5% to nearly 10%, it is plausible that it reentered the market in the second quarter to capitalize on the improved arbitrage opportunity.

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Ether Surges 8%, Bitcoin Nears $106K as Crypto Bulls Take Charge

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Crypto markets extended their climb with ether (ETH) jumping 8% and bitcoin (BTC) inching back toward the $106,000 mark in the past 24 hours, despite broader risk-off sentiment in equities and gold.

The resilience is in contrast to Friday’s surprise credit downgrade of the U.S. by Moody’s, which cited persistent fiscal deficits and political gridlock. Yet while equities sagged and gold extended its recent decline, falling nearly 7% from May highs, bitcoin held ground and even rallied briefly to $107,000 late Sunday before retracing.

“Bitcoin’s ability to rally over the weekend despite a risk-off tone in equities following the Moody’s downgrade reinforces its positioning as a legitimate store of value,” QCP Capital said in a Telegram broadcast late Monday.

The firm pointed to consistent inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs and institutional demand as catalysts, even as derivatives markets saw some leveraged long liquidations.

Ether was among the standout movers, surging past $2,900 in a strong follow-through move from last week’s breakout. The token’s recent strength has been tied to renewed interest in Ethereum staking flows and positive sentiment following the Pectra upgrade — though no new headline catalyst emerged on Monday.

Solana’s SOL, XRP, BNB Chain’s BNB and dogecoin (DOGE) rose between 2-4%, with the broad-based CoinDesk 20 (CD20) adding just under 2% in the past 24 hours.

Meanwhile, Aave’s AAVE tokens soared over 25% in the past 24 hours, though the move appeared largely speculative. No protocol-level announcement or governance proposal was immediately tied to the jump. The token is still down over 60% from its 2021 highs.

Traders say the decoupling between bitcoin and traditional “hard assets” like gold is worth watching.

“Unlike in previous months where BTC and gold went up in unison, bitcoin has been rising against a drop in spot gold, which is also reflected in ETF flows,” Augustine Fan of SignalPlus said in a message to CoinDesk.

“Gold ETFs saw a notable drop in flows against a small rise in BTC ETFs, with a similar pattern in gold vs BTC futures on CME. We should assume more of these micro-correlation breaks and relative value opportunities to take hold,” Fan ended.

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Nasdaq-Listed DigiAsia Plans to Raise $100M for Bitcoin Buys

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DigiAsia Corp (FAAS) plans to raise up to $100 million to seed a bitcoin treasury reserve (BTC), joining a growing list of publicly traded companies looking to diversify their corporate balance sheets with bitcoin.

The announcement on Monday (which emphasized plans rather than executed actions) helped push DigiAsia’s shares up 91% during regular trading to 36 cents, before pulling back 22% after hours. The stock is still down more than 50% year-to-date.

The company said its board had approved a strategy to allocate up to 50% of future net profits toward BTC purchases and was “actively exploring” a capital raise of up to $100 million, according to a press release.

It also plans to pursue yield-generating strategies on its bitcoin holdings, including institutional lending and staking through regulated partners.

“We believe bitcoin represents a compelling long-term investment and a foundational layer for modern treasury diversification,” said Prashant Gokarn, Co-CEO of DigiAsia, in the release.

The firm added that it was evaluating financing methods such as convertible notes and crypto-linked instruments to support the initiative.

In an April update, DigiAsia reported $101 million in revenue for 2024, with projected earnings before interest and taxes of $12 million this year. Whether DigiAsia follows through on its BTC purchases remains to be seen. But the signal alone has been enough to give the fintech a short-term boost on Wall Street.

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