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Polymarket Retains Loyal User Base a Month After Election, Data Shows

Published

6 месяцев ago

2 декабря, 2024

During the dog days of summer, Polymarket’s election betting surged on (correct) speculation that the Democrats would make a «hot swap» of Joe Biden for Kamala Harris as their presidential candidate. Trading volume grew and grew through the fall. All along, <a href=»https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/08/29/can-prediction-market-boom-continue-after-election-this-crypto-team-has-a-plan» target=»_blank»>doubts lingered</a> about whether the platform’s trader base would hold steady after the ballots were cast.

On Election Day, the research arm of gaming and VC giant Animoca put out a <a href=»https://research.animocabrands.com/post/cm34k8cug43d007mi0zpie48a» target=»_blank»>report</a> with a bold prediction: there’s nothing for Polymarket to worry about. The crypto-based prediction market, according to the report, had a significant base of non-election bettors to carry it through.

Naturally, there would be smaller numbers – what can be as captivating as a political face-off involving Donald Trump? – but it’d be a far cry from a ghost town. Three-quarters of Polymarket users, Animoca noted, trade contracts unrelated to the election.

A month later, that analysis is looking right.

A key data point to track is the open interest on Polymarket. Open interest, which is the total value of active positions in Polymarket’s prediction markets, reflects the platform’s liquidity, user activity, and overall market engagement.

Data from a <a href=»https://dune.com/queries/3343122/5601864″ target=»_blank»>Dune Analytics dashboard</a> shows that while open interest hit peaked just above $475 million on Election Day – and, predictably, significantly declined in the days after – it has been ticking back up in the last week.

The data shows open interest dropped to a low of $93.91 million on November 12, then slowly climbed to $104 million by November 15 and further to $115.25 million by November 30. These aren’t bad numbers for Polymarket by any means, because this is where open interest was in mid-September, when election fever was in full swing.

Similarly, <a href=»https://dune.com/queries/3343108/5601830″ target=»_blank»>daily volumes</a>, while down sharply from their $367 million peak the day after the election, have plateaued in the mid- to high eight figure range, which is still higher than they were in September.

The next metric to look at is the number of active wallets on the platform.

In the last week, this metric – which reflects the number of traders active on the platform – has been hovering around the mid-30,000 mark, which isn’t substantially lower than the weeklong run-up to election day, when there were an average of 39,100 active wallets at work.

And is Polymarket reliant on a few whales to drive volume? Not really.

<a href=»https://dune.com/queries/4061600/6839023″ target=»_blank»>Data shows</a> that around 60% of all bets are coming in under $100, and only 5.8% of bets are between $1,000 and $5,000.

Polymarket is here to stay, but dark clouds remain. It needs to <a href=»https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/11/13/fbi-reportedly-raids-polymarket-ceos-home» target=»_blank»>work through its legal issues</a>, which may soon be resolved if President-elect Trump installs a crypto-friendly financial regulatory regime.

Influencer Mea Culpa

A social media influencer <a href=»https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/25/mudslinging-sullies-prediction-markets-just-as-sectors-prospects-brighten» target=»_blank»>involved in a Kalshi plot to bash Polymarket and its founder</a>, Shayne Coplan, has apologized for a post in which he called Coplan the «n-word» and said he «look[ed] guilty.»

«I was doing other business with Kalshi and just tweeted it,» Antonio Brown wrote on X (formerly Twitter) Saturday. «I want to say sry to Shayne Coplan.»

Earlier, Clown World, an influencer account that regularly tweets Kalshi-related content, deleted a post calling Coplan and convicted fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried lookalikes.

Kalshi’s CEO, Tarek Mansour, has previously declined to comment on the record.

Markets Missed Biden Pardon

Hunter Biden, the wayward son of President Joe Biden, <a href=»https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12/01/us/hunter-biden-pardon-live» target=»_blank»>was pardoned Sunday</a>, a move that surprised many – including traders on Polymarket.

The pardon covers all offenses committed in a ten-year period between January 1, 2014, and December 1 of this year, a statement from the White House reads. This covers Hunter’s tax and gun charges – in addition to any undetected crimes.

Before the pardon announcement, contracts representing the yes side of the question were trading around 28 to 30 cents, reflecting a 28% to 30% chance a pardon would happen. Now that the White House has confirmed the executive grant of clemency, these contracts shot up to 100%, which means they will pay out 1 USDC, each worth $1, per share.

The market was skeptical a pardon would happen, <a href=»https://apnews.com/article/biden-son-hunter-charges-pardon-pledge-24f3007c2d2f467fa48e21bbc7262525″ target=»_blank»>given multiple pledges</a> by the President that it would not.

<a href=»https://apnews.com/article/president-joe-biden-hunter-biden-18efb958a5365eebda5bb3da411c4326″ target=»_blank»>In June</a>, the elder Biden promised to respect a jury decision regarding a gun charge and not pardon his son. At the time, the market was giving a 12% chance of a pardon.

Data aggregator <a href=»https://www.polymarketanalytics.com/markets?event=10882″ target=»_blank»>Polymarket Analytics</a> shows that the top holder of the yes side, a user who goes by «<a href=»https://polymarket.com/profile/0x008bf350637ce1ea308b3622a0d44116f9f3b476″ target=»_blank»>PollsR4Dummies</a>» took home $223,472 on his bet of $87,740.

The polling skeptic is also holding two long-shot yes positions, betting that Fox News personality Pete Hegseth will be confirmed as Secretary of Defense, currently at 32% <a href=»https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/21/politics/pete-hegseth-police-report-defense-secretary-trump/index.html» target=»_blank»>given recent sexual assault allegations</a>, and that the Fed will cut interest rates three times in 2024 (the market gives this a 29% chance).

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Judge Overturns Convictions in Mango Markets Exploiter’s Crypto Fraud Case

Published

4 часа ago

24 мая, 2025

admin

A U.S. judge has overturned the fraud and market manipulation convictions of Avraham Eisenberg, the crypto trader accused of draining $110 million from the now-defunct decentralized finance protocol Mango Markets.

On Friday, U.S. District Judge Arun Subramanian ruled that prosecutors failed to prove Eisenberg made false representations to the platform.

He also moved to acquit Eisenberg of wire fraud charges. The investor manipulated the price of Mango’s native token MNGO with massive trades by more than 1,000% in 20 minutes before getting the protocol to allow him to borrow and withdraw $110 million in various cryptocurrencies, backed by the inflated collateral.

Eisenberg’s defense argued that the platform, which operated through smart contracts, allowed anyone to transact freely and that he simply exploited a vulnerability. The judge agreed, stating that Mango’s permissionless structure meant that there “was insufficient evidence of falsity” from prosecutors regarding Eisenberg’s representation to Mango Markets.

Eisenberg was arrested in December 2022, and while this case collapsed, he is still currently serving a four-year sentence handed out after he pleaded guilty to the possession of child sexual abuse material.

“From the beginning, we said this case was fatally flawed,” his attorney Brian Klein of Waymaker LLP said. “We are very pleased for Avi that the judge granted our motion and dismissed the case.”

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Swiss watchmaker Franck Muller Unveils Limited Edition Solana Watch

Published

4 часа ago

24 мая, 2025

admin

If you’ve ever wanted to have your Solana wallet on your wrist while flexing your wealth, Swiss watchmaker Franck Muller is making that a reality.

The watch market is stepping into the Web3 ecosystem with a Solana-inspired, limited-edition series of watches that contain an embedded unique QR code to directly link to the user’s Solana address.

The company’s Solana-inspired watch collection is limited to 1,111 units that will set buyers back 20,000 Swiss francs (around $24,300).

While the watches feature a unique design that could appeal to Solana ecosystem participants, their launch comes at a time when, unfortunately, flaunting crypto-related wealth is becoming risky.

The cryptocurrency industry has seen dozens of physical attacks just this year, with a notable case seeing the daughter and grandson of Pierre Noizat, CEO of crypto platform Paymium, being targeted in a daytime attempted kidnapping. The attack was filmed and shared on social media.

While that kidnapping attempt failed, an earlier one in the same city saw the father of a crypto millionaire get abducted. Police managed to rescue the man, but not before his finger was severed.

Earlier this year, the co-founder of hardware wallet maker Ledger, David Balland, along with his wife, was abducted from his home and saw similar treatment. The couple was later rescued by authorities, and a ransom that had been paid out was seized.

There have been many other similar attacks in recent months.

Franck Muller is pitching the collection as a «phygital» (physical-digital) symbol of identity and ownership in the crypto age. While the watch is certainly a piece of crypto mythos, it may be a collectible that investors may not want to show off.

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A Small Food Firm Buys 21 bitcoin, Jumping on BTC Treasury Trend, Shares Fall Anyways

Published

5 часов ago

24 мая, 2025

admin

DDC Enterprise (DDC), an Asian food company, has announced the acquisition of 21 BTC as part of a long-term plan to incorporate the cryptocurrency into its corporate treasury.

The company, led by founder and CEO Norma Chu, exchanged 254,333 class A ordinary shares for BTC, in a transaction valued at roughly $2.28 million, according to a press release.

The move positions DDC among a growing cohort of public companies using BTC as a treasury asset. Two more purchases totaling 79 BTC are expected in the coming days, bringing the company’s initial holdings to 100 BTC.

In a shareholder letter issued last week, Chu outlined plans to accumulate up to 500 BTC within six months and aim for 5,000 BTC in three years.

While companies adopting bitcoin as a strategic treasury asset often see major price rises, DDC saw the opposite. The company’s shares dropped more than 12% on Friday’s trading session, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.6% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1%.

DigiAsia (FAAS), for example, saw its share prices surge more than 90% in a single trading session after announcing a $100 million BTC treasury plan earlier this month.