Connect with us

Uncategorized

Polymarket Retains Loyal User Base a Month After Election, Data Shows

Published

on

During the dog days of summer, Polymarket’s election betting surged on (correct) speculation that the Democrats would make a «hot swap» of Joe Biden for Kamala Harris as their presidential candidate. Trading volume grew and grew through the fall. All along, <a href=»https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/08/29/can-prediction-market-boom-continue-after-election-this-crypto-team-has-a-plan» target=»_blank»>doubts lingered</a> about whether the platform’s trader base would hold steady after the ballots were cast.

On Election Day, the research arm of gaming and VC giant Animoca put out a <a href=»https://research.animocabrands.com/post/cm34k8cug43d007mi0zpie48a» target=»_blank»>report</a> with a bold prediction: there’s nothing for Polymarket to worry about. The crypto-based prediction market, according to the report, had a significant base of non-election bettors to carry it through.

Naturally, there would be smaller numbers – what can be as captivating as a political face-off involving Donald Trump? – but it’d be a far cry from a ghost town. Three-quarters of Polymarket users, Animoca noted, trade contracts unrelated to the election.

A month later, that analysis is looking right.

A key data point to track is the open interest on Polymarket. Open interest, which is the total value of active positions in Polymarket’s prediction markets, reflects the platform’s liquidity, user activity, and overall market engagement.

Data from a <a href=»https://dune.com/queries/3343122/5601864″ target=»_blank»>Dune Analytics dashboard</a> shows that while open interest hit peaked just above $475 million on Election Day – and, predictably, significantly declined in the days after – it has been ticking back up in the last week.

The data shows open interest dropped to a low of $93.91 million on November 12, then slowly climbed to $104 million by November 15 and further to $115.25 million by November 30. These aren’t bad numbers for Polymarket by any means, because this is where open interest was in mid-September, when election fever was in full swing.

Similarly, <a href=»https://dune.com/queries/3343108/5601830″ target=»_blank»>daily volumes</a>, while down sharply from their $367 million peak the day after the election, have plateaued in the mid- to high eight figure range, which is still higher than they were in September.

The next metric to look at is the number of active wallets on the platform.

In the last week, this metric – which reflects the number of traders active on the platform – has been hovering around the mid-30,000 mark, which isn’t substantially lower than the weeklong run-up to election day, when there were an average of 39,100 active wallets at work.

And is Polymarket reliant on a few whales to drive volume? Not really.

<a href=»https://dune.com/queries/4061600/6839023″ target=»_blank»>Data shows</a> that around 60% of all bets are coming in under $100, and only 5.8% of bets are between $1,000 and $5,000.

Polymarket is here to stay, but dark clouds remain. It needs to <a href=»https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/11/13/fbi-reportedly-raids-polymarket-ceos-home» target=»_blank»>work through its legal issues</a>, which may soon be resolved if President-elect Trump installs a crypto-friendly financial regulatory regime.

Influencer Mea Culpa

A social media influencer <a href=»https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/25/mudslinging-sullies-prediction-markets-just-as-sectors-prospects-brighten» target=»_blank»>involved in a Kalshi plot to bash Polymarket and its founder</a>, Shayne Coplan, has apologized for a post in which he called Coplan the «n-word» and said he «look[ed] guilty.»

«I was doing other business with Kalshi and just tweeted it,» Antonio Brown wrote on X (formerly Twitter) Saturday. «I want to say sry to Shayne Coplan.»

Earlier, Clown World, an influencer account that regularly tweets Kalshi-related content, deleted a post calling Coplan and convicted fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried lookalikes.

Kalshi’s CEO, Tarek Mansour, has previously declined to comment on the record.

Markets Missed Biden Pardon

Hunter Biden, the wayward son of President Joe Biden, <a href=»https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12/01/us/hunter-biden-pardon-live» target=»_blank»>was pardoned Sunday</a>, a move that surprised many – including traders on Polymarket.

The pardon covers all offenses committed in a ten-year period between January 1, 2014, and December 1 of this year, a statement from the White House reads. This covers Hunter’s tax and gun charges – in addition to any undetected crimes.

Before the pardon announcement, contracts representing the yes side of the question were trading around 28 to 30 cents, reflecting a 28% to 30% chance a pardon would happen. Now that the White House has confirmed the executive grant of clemency, these contracts shot up to 100%, which means they will pay out 1 USDC, each worth $1, per share.

The market was skeptical a pardon would happen, <a href=»https://apnews.com/article/biden-son-hunter-charges-pardon-pledge-24f3007c2d2f467fa48e21bbc7262525″ target=»_blank»>given multiple pledges</a> by the President that it would not.

<a href=»https://apnews.com/article/president-joe-biden-hunter-biden-18efb958a5365eebda5bb3da411c4326″ target=»_blank»>In June</a>, the elder Biden promised to respect a jury decision regarding a gun charge and not pardon his son. At the time, the market was giving a 12% chance of a pardon.

Data aggregator <a href=»https://www.polymarketanalytics.com/markets?event=10882″ target=»_blank»>Polymarket Analytics</a> shows that the top holder of the yes side, a user who goes by «<a href=»https://polymarket.com/profile/0x008bf350637ce1ea308b3622a0d44116f9f3b476″ target=»_blank»>PollsR4Dummies</a>» took home $223,472 on his bet of $87,740.

The polling skeptic is also holding two long-shot yes positions, betting that Fox News personality Pete Hegseth will be confirmed as Secretary of Defense, currently at 32% <a href=»https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/21/politics/pete-hegseth-police-report-defense-secretary-trump/index.html» target=»_blank»>given recent sexual assault allegations</a>, and that the Fed will cut interest rates three times in 2024 (the market gives this a 29% chance).

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Ваш адрес email не будет опубликован. Обязательные поля помечены *

Uncategorized

Vitalik Buterin Proposes Replacing Ethereum’s EVM With RISC-V

Published

on

By

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin shared a new proposal over the weekend that would radically overhaul the system that powers its smart contracts.

Buterin’s suggestion, which he posted on Ethereum’s primary developer forum, involves replacing the Ethereum Virtual Machine, the software engine that powers programs on the network, with RISC-V, a popular open-source framework that offers built-in encryption and other benefits. .

The EVM is a key piece of Ethereum’s underlying design and has been seen as one of the main elements that helped the network succeed in a crowded field of other blockchains. Many non-Ethereum networks have used the EVM to build their own chains, as has a growing ecosystem of layer-2 networks built atop Ethereum, including Coinbase’s Base chain.

The EVM has long played an essential role in Ethereum’s development. Other chains that use it can seamlessly connect with apps on Ethereum, and developers on EVM-based networks can transition more smoothly to building applications directly within the Ethereum ecosystem.

Buterin argued that transitioning Ethereum to a RISC-V architecture will “greatly improve the efficiency of the Ethereum execution layer, resolving one of the primary scaling bottlenecks, and can also greatly improve the execution layer’s simplicity.” (The execution layer is the part of the network that reads smart contracts.)

The RISC-V architecture, which has seen limited adoption in other blockchain ecosystems, like Polkadot, could offer «efficiency gains over 100x» for certain kinds of applications, according to Buterin. These improvements could reduce the network’s costs — long seen as a major barrier to adoption.

Among the primary benefits of RISC-V is its native support for certain kinds of encryption. Transitioning to the new architecture could, in Buterin’s view, be a simpler alternative to the community’s current plan, which involves rebuilding the EVM around zero-knowledge cryptography.

Buterin’s proposal is something developers would tackle over the long term, comparable to projects like the Beam Chain, which is looking to revamp Ethereum’s consensus layer.

The RISC-V comes at a time of broader soul-searching for the Ethereum community. Recently, transaction volumes have declined, and Ethereum’s token has lagged behind the broader market.

Earlier this year, the Ethereum Foundation, the primary non-profit that supports the development of the broader Ethereum ecosystem, underwent a leadership transition in an attempt to remedy the impression among community members that the ecosystem lacked a clear roadmap and was losing its lead compared to competitors.

Read more: Top Ethereum Researcher’s Dramatic Proposal Draws Standing-Room-Only Crowd in Bangkok

Continue Reading

Uncategorized

The GPT Gold Rush Is Failing Crypto Traders

Published

on

By

The AI revolution in trading should be a game-changer, but instead, it’s become a quick money grab. Everywhere you turn, yet another ChatGPT wrapper is being marketed as the next big thing for crypto traders. The promises? “AI-powered insights,” “next-gen trading signals,” “perfect agentic trading.” The reality? Overhyped, overpriced, and underperforming vaporware that doesn’t scratch the surface of what’s truly needed.


Saad Naja is a speaker at the AI Summit during Consensus 2025, Toronto, May 14-16.

AI should be designed to augment the trader experience, not sideline it. Companies like Spectral Labs and Creator.Bid are innovating with AI agents but risk heading toward vaporware status if they fail to deliver real utility beyond surface-level GPT wrappers. They have an overreliance on Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT without offering any unique utility, prioritizing AI buzzwords over substance and AI architecture transparency.

AI Agents Should Augment Trading

Combining AI and trading is a transformative leap, for humans to make trading gains more effectively with powerful foresight, investing less time, but not to replace humans from the trading equation entirely. Traders don’t need another emotionless agent with unfettered agency. They need tools that help them trade better, faster, and more confidently in environments that simulate real market volatility before going trading in the real markets.

Too many GPT wrappers rush to market with fluffy, half-baked agents that prey on fear, confusion, and FOMO. With barely-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) and little transparency, some of these AI trading “solutions” reinforce set and forget bad habits.

Trading isn’t just about hyper speed or automation, it’s about thoughtful decision-making. It’s about balancing science with intuition, data with emotion. In this first wave of agent design, what’s missing is the art of the trader’s journey: their skill progression, unique strategy development, and fast evolution through interactive mentorship and simulations.

Just Fancy Calculators

The real innovation lies in developing a meta-model that blends predictive trading LLMs, real-time APIs, sentiment analysis, and on-chain data, while filtering through the chaos of Crypto Twitter.

Emotion and sentiment do move markets. If your AI Trader agent can’t detect when a community flips bullish or bearish, or front-run that signal, it’s a non-starter.

GPT Wrappers rejecting emotion-driven market moves offer lower-risk, lower-reward gains within portfolio optimization. A better agent reads nuance, tone, and psycholinguistics, just as skilled traders do.

And while 20 years of high-quality trading data spanning multiple cycles, markets and instruments is a great start, true mastery comes through engagement and progression loops that stick. The best agents learn from data, people and thrive with coaching.

Better to Lose Pretend Money

Financial systems intimidate most people. Many never start, or blow up fast. Simulated environments help fix that. The thrill of winning, the pain of losing, and the joy of bouncing back are what build resilience and shift gears from sterile chat and voice interfaces.

AI Trader agents should teach this, back-test and simulate trading comeback strategies in virtual trading environments, not just of successful trades but comebacks from the unforeseen events. Think of it like learning to drive: real growth comes from time on the road and close calls, not just reading your state’s handbook.

Simulations can show traders how to spot candlestick patterns, manage risk, adapt to volatility, or respond to new tariff headlines, without losing their heads in the process. By learning through agents, traders can refine strategies and own their positions, win or lose.

Before My Bags, Win My Trust

AI Agents’ life-like responses are fast improving to being indistinguishable from human responses through conversational and contextual depth (closing the “Uncanny Valley” gap). But for traders to accept and trust these agents, they need to feel real, be interactive, intelligent, and relatable.

Agents with personality, ones that vibe like real traders, whether cautious portfolio managers or cautious portfolio optimizers can become trusted copilots. The key to this trust is control. Traders must have the right to refuse or approve the AI Agent’s calls.

On-demand chat access is another lever, alongside visibility of trading gains and comebacks built on the sweat and tears of real traders. The best agents won’t just execute trades, they’ll explain why. They’ll evolve with the trader. They’ll earn access to manage funds only after proving themselves, like interns earning a seat on the trading desk.

Fun, slick AAA aesthetics and progression will keep traders coming back in shared experiences opposed to solo missions. Through tokenization and co-learning models, AI agents could become not just tools, but co-owned assets — solving crypto’s trader liquidity problem along the way.

First-to-market players must be viewed with healthy skepticism. If Trader AI Agents are going to make a real impact, they must move beyond sterile chat interfaces and become dynamic, educational, and emotionally intelligent.

Until then, GPT wrappers remain what they are slick distractions dressed up as innovation, extracting more value from users than they deliver, as the AI token market correction indicated.

The convergence of AI and crypto should empower traders. With the right incentives and a trader-first mindset, AI Agents could unlock unprecedented learnings and earnings. Not by replacing the trader but by evolving them.

Continue Reading

Uncategorized

Strategy’s Bitcoin Buying Spree Has Minimal Impact on Prices, TD Cowen Says

Published

on

By

Despite its growing footprint as a major corporate holder of bitcoin (BTC), Strategy’s large-scale purchases of the cryptocurrency appear to have little, if any, influence on its price, according to a research paper by TD Cowen.

The findings published Monday challenge a popular theory among skeptics — that Strategy’s aggressive buying spree is helping prop up bitcoin’s value, and that without its continued demand, prices would falter. But based on the data, that argument doesn’t hold much weight, the analysts said.

A Big Buyer, But a Small Slice of the Market

Strategy recently issued another 1.8 million shares under its at-the-market (ATM) offering, raising an additional $842 million in net proceeds. The funds were used to purchase 6,556 bitcoins, boosting the firm’s bitcoin yield this quarter by 1% to 12.1%. However, when measured against the broader bitcoin market, these purchases are just a drop in the bucket.

According to the TD Cowen analysis, Strategy’s bitcoin buys have typically accounted for just 3.3% of weekly trading volume on average. Over the past 27 weeks, the company’s total activity amounted to 8.4% of volume — but this figure was skewed by a handful of weeks where its buying briefly surged past 20%. In eight of those weeks, Strategy didn’t buy any bitcoin at all.

“Our conclusion is that in most periods, it doesn’t appear plausible that Strategy’s purchases could have had a sustained, material impact on the price of bitcoin,” TD Cowen analysts wrote.

Correlation? Not Much.

The analysis further tested the relationship between Strategy’s bitcoin purchases and market prices — and found it to be statistically weak. The correlation coefficient between Strategy’s weekly bitcoin buy volume and BTC price at week’s end came in at just 25%. When comparing purchases to weekly price changes, the correlation rose only slightly to 28%.

Given a correlation coefficient close to 0 suggests no or weak correlation, these results indicate little to no link between Strategy’s actions and short-term market movements — let alone any kind of sustained price influence, the paper said.

What About Outpacing Miners?

Another common critique is that Strategy frequently purchases more bitcoin than is mined in a given period, implying it’s creating upward price pressure. While technically true, the analysis shows this argument misunderstands how the bitcoin market works.

Over the past six months, secondary bitcoin trading has outpaced mining volume by nearly 20 times. Even removing Strategy’s purchases from the equation, secondary market activity still exceeds new supply by 17 times. In that environment, miners and buyers alike are price takers — not setters.

“As we have seen, its purchases represent a very small percentage of total bitcoin trading volume; thus the idea that it is somehow having a profound or even notable impact on bitcoin price action seems incongruous, to us,” TD Cowen said.

Building Value, Not Hype

While Strategy’s influence on the bitcoin market may be overstated, the value it’s generated for shareholders is harder to ignore.

Last week’s purchases created an estimated incremental gain of 5,281 bitcoins, bringing quarter-to-date gains to nearly $600 million. Since the beginning of 2023, Strategy has increased its bitcoin holdings by 306%, while only expanding its fully diluted share count by 94% — a strong showing for a company using bitcoin as a strategic treasury asset.

With $1.53 billion in remaining ATM capacity and board approval for a larger share authorization, Strategy is well-positioned to continue this strategy — without disrupting the very market it’s betting on.

“We expect Strategy will continue to drive positive BTC Yield for the foreseeable future. While BTC Yield will likely fall to the extent bitcoin continues to rise in price, the dollar value of incremental gains from Strategy’s Treasury Operations could remain highly advantageous to shareholders,” the analysts wrote.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2017 Zox News Theme. Theme by MVP Themes, powered by WordPress.