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All Eyes on Bitcoin

Bitcoin saw explosive growth immediately after the recent U.S. presidential elections, rising and retaking the spotlight from former highs of $73,000 in March. Now the question is, will bitcoin (BTC) continue its uptrend, and at what point can a sharp reversal happen?
If we take a look at former BTC market cycles, which happen every four years, then we see that we are now just starting to go into new bitcoin price discovery areas, and BTC could top out at new all-time highs, which is practically anything greater than the current resistance of $92,000. Bitcoin could even potentially see highs of $140,000+ based on prior supply and demand — i.e. halving cycles. On the contrary, what makes this market cycle a bit different than others is the vanished principle of BTC being an inflation hedge or digital gold. In theory, it was supposed to be — that is, at least, likely what Satoshi intended since bitcoin was created after the 2008 financial crisis. From what we saw in the last cryptocurrency bear market cycle, BTC is not an actual inflation hedge and performs like all other risk-on assets, so sentiment could change once the inauguration happens in January.
As we’ve seen before, politics could potentially just be politics until we see actual regulatory rollouts and a more favorable U.S. stance on paper with policies and laws that the markets fully embrace. Things seem to be going in the right direction with the news of Gensler resigning come January 20, 2025. The question remains on who will be his replacement; the wrong person and the smallest sentiment change in the wrong direction could fully accelerate a drawdown in BTC. We’ve previously seen what every Fed meeting minute has done to the price action of crypto which has, up until recently, always been negatively perceived. In other words, we are not fully out of the woods just yet, especially until there is clarity on who could be Gensler’s replacement.
The BTC ETFs played a vital role this year in institutionalizing the cryptocurrency, which allowed for RIA and fiduciary investment in bitcoin, although in a turnaround market the same volumes that helped bitcoin get to the point it is at today can be the same volumes and outflows that present a downfall. This can lead to crippling sentiment as we all know the crypto bull market does not last forever and drawdowns of 70-80% can be expected.
Looking at prior BTC bull market cycles, BTC has seen drawdowns of 20-30%. Can the same be expected with all the new factors under the current and new market structure? Analysts assume less drawdown and volatility scenarios due to the BTC ETF options offered by iShares and others, although on the contrary, systematic strategies still seem to be sought after with investors taking bets on market volatility, which only recently (in 2022) saw an equity market-like expansion in the crypto markets where enough volume, market cap, and stability existed for the shorting functionality of some coins.
With more market participants and more avenues of shorting functionality across all crypto assets, including BTC, this can create more volatility in the short-term. Compared to the last market cycle, there are a lot more traditional finance (TradFi) players trading and market making in the space now, which in a way is offset by more institutional capital locked up (mostly in ETFs since the venture space in crypto dried up from the fast money of the last bull market). Although in a way, no matter how much institutional capital enters the space, the market cycle of BTC will follow volatility— it’s just in its decentralized nature.
Regardless of whatever outlook one has on the price of BTC, it’s important to realize that this is a different market than before. Gone are the days of quick “hot money” returns with the inevitable crypto risk factors ever present. One must remain cautious, but optimistic, on where things are going, if not bullish on the market cycle and structure alone. Regardless, for every type of investor, there is a huge opportunity due to the immense growth of the industry, and when that window will close is anyone’s guess — the only thing for certain is that the new market cycle is just getting started.
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ORQO Debuts in Abu Dhabi With $370M in AUM, Sets Sight on Ripple USD Yield

ORQO Group, a new institutional asset manager with $370 million in assets under management, has launched on Tuesday with plans to build out a yield platform for Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin.
The group, headquartered in Abu Dhabi, consolidates four entities from both traditional finance and digital assets: Mount TFI, a private debt specialist and licensed fund manager in Poland, Monterra Capital, a multi-strategy digital hedge fund in Malta, blockchain engineering studio Nextrope and decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol Soil compliant with MiCA, the EU’s crypto framework.
Already licensed in Poland and Malta, the group is seeking approval from the Financial Services Regulatory Authority at Abu Dhabi Global Market to expand services in the Middle East, a region it sees as a hub for regulated digital asset growth.
«It’s an opportunity to become a global on-chain asset manager,» ORQO CEO Nicholas Motz said in an interview with CoinDesk. «We have all the pieces: the off-chain asset management, and on-chain, too.»
ORQO’s effort is part of a larger trend that’s been reshaping crypto markets: moving traditional financial instruments like private credit, U.S. Treasuries, or trade finance deals onto blockchain networks. The process is also known as tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs). Data from rwa.xyz shows that the RWA market has grown into a nearly $30 billion sector, though it remains tiny compared to traditional finance markets such as the $2 trillion private credit sector. Still, the growth potential is immense: the tokenized RWA market could reach $18.9 trillion by 2033, a joint report by Ripple and BCG projected.
Yield platform Soil is a key piece in ORQO’s gameplan, connecting the firm’s RWA access with crypto capital capital. It aims to provide returns on stablecoins deposits from tokenized private credit, real estate and hedge fund strategies.
As part of the next stage, the firm plans to open several credit pools targeting holders of Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin in the near future, allowing investors such as institutional treasuries or protocol reserves to earn a yield on their holdings.
Read more: Tokenization of Real-World Assets is Gaining Momentum, Says Bank of America
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Coinbase Policy Chief Pushes Back on Bank Warnings That Stablecoins Threaten Deposits

Contrary to claims from the U.S. banking industry, stablecoins do not pose a risk to the financial system, according to the chief policy officer at crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN), Faryar Shirzad. Banks’ claims that they do are are myths crafted to defend their revenues, he wrote in a Tueday blog post.
«The central claim — that stablecoins will cause a mass outflow of bank deposits — simply doesn’t hold up,» Shirzad wrote. «Recent analysis shows no meaningful link between stablecoin adoption and deposit flight for community banks and there’s no reason to believe big banks would fare any worse.»
Larger lenders still hold trillions of dollars at the Federal Reserve and if deposits were really at risk, he argued, they would be competing harder for customer funds by offering higher interest rates rather than parking cash at the central bank
According to Shirzad, the real reason for banks’ opposition is the payments business. Stablecoins, digital tokens whose value is pegged to a real-life asset such as the dollar, offer faster and cheaper ways to move money, threatening an estimated $187 billion in annual swipe-fee revenue for traditional card networks and banks.
He compared the current pushback to earlier battles against ATMs and online banking, when incumbents warned of systemic dangers but, he said, were ultimately trying to protect entrenched profits.
Shirzad also dismissed reports predicting trillions in potential outflows from deposits into stablecoins, whose total market cap is around $290 billion, according to data from CoinGecko. He stressed that stablecoins are primarily used as payment tools — for trading digital assets or sending funds abroad — not as long-term savings products.
Someone purchasing stablecoins to settle with an overseas supplier, he argued, is opting for a more efficient transaction method the going through their bank, not pulling money from a savings account.
He urged banks to embrace the technology instead of resisting it, saying stablecoin rails could cut settlement times, lower correspondent banking costs and provide round-the-clock payments. Those institutions willing to adapt, he wrote, stand to benefit from the shift.
The U.K., too, faces concerns about the effect of stablecoins on the financial industry.
The Financial Times reported Monday that the Bank of England is considering setting limits on how many «systemic» stablecoins people and companies can hold — setting thresholds as low as 10,000 pounds ($13,600) for individuals and about 10 million pounds for businesses.
Officials define systemic stablecoins as those already widely used for U.K. payments or expected to become so, and say the caps are needed to prevent sudden deposit outflows that could weaken lending and financial stability.
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Deutsche Börse’s Crypto Finance Unveils Connected Custody Settlement for Digital Assets

Crypto Finance, a subsidiary of Deutsche Börse Group, unveiled AnchorNote, a system designed for institutional clients who want to trade digital assets without moving them out of regulated custody.
The system integrates BridgePort, a network of crypto exchanges and custodians, enabling off-exchange settlement and connectivity to multiple trading venues. By keeping assets in custody while allowing real-time collateral movement, AnchorNote aims to improve capital efficiency and reduce counterparty risk, according to a press release.
The service allows clients to set up dedicated trading lines, with BridgePort handling messaging between venues and Crypto Finance acting as collateral custodian, the press release said. Institutions can manage collateral through a dashboard or integrate the service directly into their existing infrastructure using APIs, it said. APIs, or application programming interfaces, allow software programs to communicate directly with one another.
“Institutional clients face a constant tradeoff between security and capital efficiency,” said Philipp E. Dettwiler, head of custody and settlement at Crypto Finance. “AnchorNote is designed to bridge that gap.”
For traders, the setup eliminates the need for pre-funding exchanges while providing immediate access to liquidity across platforms. In practice, a Swiss bank could pledge bitcoin held in custody and deploy it instantly across multiple trading venues without moving the coins on-chain.
The rollout begins in Switzerland, with Crypto Finance planning to expand across Europe.
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