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Bitcoin Options Worth $9B Expire Friday, Traders May be Thankful for the Post-Thanksgiving Volatility

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The crypto market should see a pick up in volatility at the end of this week, as the monthly (BTC) and ether (ETH) options contracts are set to expire this Friday. This comes a day after the U.S. bank holiday Thanksgiving, giving traders an opportunity to be thankful for a potential increase in volatility.

BTC and ETH options contracts worth $9.4 billion and $1.3 billion will expire on the trading exchange Deribit at 08:00 UTC on Nov. 29. An option allows the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset as a specific price within a certain time period.

According to Deribit data, breaking down the $9.4 billion in notional value in bitcoin that is set to expire on Friday. Over $4.2 billion (45%) of the total notional value is «in-the-money» (ITM). Out of this $4.2 billion, almost 80% of them are calls that are ITM. A call that is ITM is a strike price that is below the current market price, while the opposite can be said for ITM puts that are strikes above the spot price.

As a large amount of call options are ITM this could see a lot of volatility as we get closer to the options expiry, as investors look to close their bets and profit substantially. The volatility was seen last month on Oct. 25, which was the last Friday of the month, which saw a 3% decrease in bitcoin’s as over $4 billion of options expired.

Andre Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, told CoinDesk that the majority of put open interest is concentrated in the $70,000 strike price, but sees that as a very unlikely outcome.

«As far as the expiry on Friday is concerned you see most of open interest concentrated in calls around $82,000 strike and $70,000 strike in puts. Max pain theory would suggest that we would move towards this range between $70,000 — $82,000 but this seems to be relatively unlikely. My base case remains for some sort of temporary consolidation amid elevated sentiment and high profit-taking but I don’t think that we would move towards this range in anytime soon since supply scarcity is still very much pronounced».

Diving into the out of the money (OTM) options, they are significantly dominated by puts. Out of the total notional value that is OTM is $5.2 billion (55%) and over $4.1 billion (98%) is in OTM puts. Traders were either hedging against downside risk, or making bearish bets that will most likely not materialize. Leaving investors with significant unrealized losses, that will put less downwards pressure on the market.

Dragosch believes that most of the concentration in puts are likely hedges and not bearish bets.

«BTC open interest is disproportionately concentrated in puts as the put-call open interest ratio is still hovering near the highest level since March 2024. The majority of these expiries will likely rolled over into puts as most of this open interest represents hedges and not outright downside bets in my opinion», Dragosch argues.

As bitcoin’s price is above $98,000 significantly higher than the max pain price of $78,000. The max pain price is the price point where the option holders experience the greatest losses, while the market makers who are the option sellers achieve maximum profit. Due to the large difference between max pain and the current bitcoin spot price, this is leaving many call options deep in the money. In addition, as the price is so far ahead of the max pain price, market makers may be forced to hedge by purchasing bitcoin which could fuel a further rally potentially taking bitcoin to the psychological level of $100,000.

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XLM Sees Heavy Volatility as Institutional Selling Weighs on Price

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Stellar’s XLM token endured sharp swings over the past 24 hours, tumbling 3% as institutional selling pressure dominated order books. The asset declined from $0.39 to $0.38 between September 14 at 15:00 and September 15 at 14:00, with trading volumes peaking at 101.32 million—nearly triple its 24-hour average. The heaviest liquidation struck during the morning hours of September 15, when XLM collapsed from $0.395 to $0.376 within two hours, establishing $0.395 as firm resistance while tentative support formed near $0.375.

Despite the broader downtrend, intraday action highlighted moments of resilience. From 13:15 to 14:14 on September 15, XLM staged a brief recovery, jumping from $0.378 to a session high of $0.383 before closing the hour at $0.380. Trading volume surged above 10 million units during this window, with 3.45 million changing hands in a single minute as bulls attempted to push past resistance. While sellers capped momentum, the consolidation zone around $0.380–$0.381 now represents a potential support base.

Market dynamics suggest distribution patterns consistent with institutional profit-taking. The persistent supply overhead has reinforced resistance at $0.395, where repeated rally attempts have failed, while the emergence of support near $0.375 reflects opportunistic buying during liquidation waves. For traders, the $0.375–$0.395 band has become the key battleground that will define near-term direction.

XLM/USD (TradingView)

Technical Indicators
  • XLM retreated 3% from $0.39 to $0.38 during the previous 24-hours from 14 September 15:00 to 15 September 14:00.
  • Trading volume peaked at 101.32 million during the 08:00 hour, nearly triple the 24-hour average of 24.47 million.
  • Strong resistance established around $0.395 level during morning selloff.
  • Key support emerged near $0.375 where buying interest materialized.
  • Price range of $0.019 representing 5% volatility between peak and trough.
  • Recovery attempts reached $0.383 by 13:00 before encountering selling pressure.
  • Consolidation pattern formed around $0.380-$0.381 zone suggesting new support level.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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HBAR Tumbles 5% as Institutional Investors Trigger Mass Selloff

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Hedera Hashgraph’s HBAR token endured steep losses over a volatile 24-hour window between September 14 and 15, falling 5% from $0.24 to $0.23. The token’s trading range expanded by $0.01 — a move often linked to outsized institutional activity — as heavy corporate selling overwhelmed support levels. The sharpest move came between 07:00 and 08:00 UTC on September 15, when concentrated liquidation drove prices lower after days of resistance around $0.24.

Institutional trading volumes surged during the session, with more than 126 million tokens changing hands on the morning of September 15 — nearly three times the norm for corporate flows. Market participants attributed the spike to portfolio rebalancing by large stakeholders, with enterprise adoption jitters and mounting regulatory scrutiny providing the backdrop for the selloff.

Recovery efforts briefly emerged during the final hour of trading, when corporate buyers tested the $0.24 level before retreating. Between 13:32 and 13:35 UTC, one accumulation push saw 2.47 million tokens deployed in an effort to establish a price floor. Still, buying momentum ultimately faltered, with HBAR settling back into support at $0.23.

The turbulence underscores the token’s vulnerability to institutional distribution events. Analysts point to the failed breakout above $0.24 as confirmation of fresh resistance, with $0.23 now serving as the critical support zone. The surge in volume suggests major corporate participants are repositioning ahead of regulatory shifts, leaving HBAR’s near-term outlook dependent on whether enterprise buyers can mount sustained defenses above key support.

HBAR/USD (TradingView)

Technical Indicators Summary
  • Corporate resistance levels crystallized at $0.24 where institutional selling pressure consistently overwhelmed enterprise buying interest across multiple trading sessions.
  • Institutional support structures emerged around $0.23 levels where corporate buying programs have systematically absorbed selling pressure from retail and smaller institutional participants.
  • The unprecedented trading volume surge to 126.38 million tokens during the 08:00 morning session reflects enterprise-scale distribution strategies that overwhelmed corporate demand across major trading platforms.
  • Subsequent institutional momentum proved unsustainable as systematic selling pressure resumed between 13:37-13:44, driving corporate participants back toward $0.23 support zones with sustained volumes exceeding 1 million tokens, indicating ongoing institutional distribution.
  • Final trading periods exhibited diminishing corporate activity with zero recorded volume between 13:13-14:14, suggesting institutional participants adopted defensive positioning strategies as HBAR consolidated at $0.23 amid enterprise uncertainty.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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Dogecoin Inches Closer to Wall Street With First Meme Coin ETF

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The first exchange-traded fund (ETF) built around a meme coin could hit the market this week, after multiple delays and much speculation.

The DOGE ETF — formally called the Rex Shares-Osprey Dogecoin ETF (DOJE) — was originally slated to debut last week, alongside a handful of politically themed and crypto-related ETFs. Those included funds tied to Bonk (BONK), XRP, Bitcoin (BTC) and even a Trump-themed fund. But DOJE’s debut never materialized.

Now, Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart believe Wednesday is the most likely launch date, though they caution nothing is certain.

“It’s more likely than not,” Seyffart said. “That seems like the base case.”

Ahead of the introduction of the ETF, DOGE has been among the top performers over the past month, ahead 15% even including a decline of 3.5% over the past 24 horus.

If launched, DOJE would mark a milestone as the first U.S. ETF to focus on a meme coin — cryptocurrencies that generally lack utility or a clear economic purpose. These include tokens like Dogecoin, Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Bonk, which often surge in popularity thanks to internet culture, celebrity endorsements and speculative trading.

Balchunas described DOJE’s significance in a post on X: “First-ever US ETF to hold something that has no utility on purpose.”

DOJE is not a spot ETF. That means it won’t hold DOGE directly. Instead, the fund will use a Cayman Islands-based subsidiary to gain exposure through futures and other derivatives. This approach sidesteps the need for physical custody of the coin while still offering traders a way to bet on its performance within a traditional brokerage account.

The ETF was approved earlier this month under the Investment Company Act of 1940, which is typically used for mutual funds and diversified ETFs. That sets it apart from the wave of bitcoin ETFs that received green lights under the Securities Act of 1933, a framework used for commodity-based and asset-backed products. In short, DOJE is structured more like a mutual fund than a commodity trust.

More direct exposure may be coming soon. Several firms have filed applications to launch spot DOGE ETFs, which would hold the meme coin itself rather than derivatives. These applications are still under review by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which has grown more comfortable with crypto ETFs since approving a slate of bitcoin products in early 2024.

The broader crypto market has shown that investor demand can outweigh fundamental critiques. Meme coins have long drawn skepticism for having no underlying value or use case, but that hasn’t kept them from drawing billions in speculative capital.

Seyffart said the ETF market is likely to follow the same path. “There’s going to be a bunch of products like this, whether you love it or need it, they’re going to be coming to market,” he said.

He added that many existing financial products serve no deeper purpose than providing a vehicle for short-term bets. “There’s plenty of products out there that are just being used as gambling or short-term trading,” he said. “So if there’s an audience for this in the crypto world, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this finds an audience in the ETF and TradFi world.”

Whether the DOJE ETF opens the door to more meme coin funds — or just proves the concept is viable — may depend on how the market responds this week. Either way, it signals a new phase in the merging of internet culture and traditional finance.

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