Dogecoin (DOGE) shed 3% while bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) remained flat in the past 24 hours as tariff concerns gradually subsided among traders, though fears of a U.S. recession increased in betting markets.

“Prominent financial figures have started to warn that the U.S. is heading into an imminent recession, with betting markets placing 40% to 60% odds of one happening in 2025,” Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message. “Our view is that it probably doesn’t matter, as sentiment often frames reality, not the other way around.”

“As such, crypto has benefited from the recent shake-out, as equities have been realizing higher volatility than Bitcoin through the risk-off move. A beggar-thy-neighbour policy with tariffs has pushed spot gold to ATHs, with BTC finally regaining some of its long-lost ‘store of value’ narrative,” Fan added.

Crypto majors tracked by the broad-based CoinDesk 20 (CD20) slid nearly 2%, data shows, with DOGE leading losses. Solana’s SOL, tron (TRX) and Cardano’s ADA lost as much as 2.5%, BNB Chain’s BNB and xrp (XRP) were little changed as bitcoin clung to the $85,000 level.

Mantra’s OM token showed a 20% rise over the past 24 hours to trade at 63 cents in Asian morning hours Tuesday, following a bizarre sell-off that saw it lose 90% within an hour late Sunday. A recovery plan is in the works, its CEO said in an interview following the plunge, though market watchers remain sceptical of any promises.

Elsewhere, Story Protocol’s IP dumped 20%, then jumped more than 30% within hours late Monday, with early fears of an OM-like sell-off among crypto circles.

Meanwhile, VeThor’s VTHO zoomed 37% as UFC CEO Dana White joined the protocol as a strategic advisor, boosting hopes for mainstream adoption — and recognition — of the RWA-focused token.-

https://x.com/vechainofficial/status/1911817066887197012

Meanwhile, Singapore-based QCP Capital said in a Telegram broadcast that BTC risk reversals remained skewed in favour of puts until June, suggesting that markets are still mildly cautious in the near term.

“That said, the tone further out is turning more constructive. On Saturday, we observed aggressive buying of 800x BTC-27MAR26-100k-C. BTC continues to consolidate within the $80k-$90k range and could continue trading sideways, adopting a «wait and see» approach to the tariff situation,” QCP said.

However, the $100,000 call option has become the most favored bet among traders in the mid-term, as CoinDesk noted Monday, with a notional open interest of nearly $1.2 billion.

Meanwhile, some traders say that sell-offs related to tariffs may be well behind and hope for improved sentiment in the days ahead.

“The current upward trend was further bolstered by the Federal Reserve’s assurance that it stands ready to intervene and stabilize markets in the event of a crisis triggered by the tariffs,” Jupiter Zheng, partner of liquid fund and research at HashKey Capital, told CoinDesk.

“As the US engages in trade negotiations with other nations, we remain hopeful that the most turbulent period may be behind us,” Zheng ended.

Bitcoin (BTC) drifted ever so gently upwards Monday as the broader market adjusts favorably to trade-related news.

The largest cryptocurrency was up 1.6% in the last 24 hours and is now trading just shy of $85,000. Ether (ETH), meanwhile, rose 2.7% in the same period of time to $1,630. The broad-market CoinDesk 20 Index — consisted of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization except for stablecoins, memecoins and exchange coins — advanced 1.2%, led by gains in SOL and AVAX.

After a couple of wild weeks, the stock market also edged higher today, the Nasdaq closing with a 0.6% gain and the S&P 500 rising 0.8%. Strategy (MSTR) and MARA Holdings (MARA), led among crypto stocks with roughly 3% gains.

The modest rally came as Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signalling that a return of the original punitive Trump tariffs would trigger the need for sizable «bad news» rate cuts.

«[Tariff] effects on output and employment could be longer-lasting and an important factor in determining the appropriate stance of monetary policy,» said Waller in a speech. «If the slowdown is significant and even threatens a recession, then I would expect to favor cutting the FOMC’s policy rate sooner, and to a greater extent than I had previously thought.»

Further easing concerns was the European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, confirming to hold off on retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods worth €21 billion until July 14 to «allow space for negotiations.»

Odds that the U.S. and EU will reach a trade agreement to avoid tariffs rose to 65% on blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket after U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly stated that a deal was in the works.

Bitcoin fundamentals recovering

Bitcoin’s relief rally from last week’s tariff turmoil stalled out around the $85,000 resistance level, but the network’s improving fundamentals spur hopes for a breakout, crypto analytics firm SwissBlock Technologies noted.

«Since March, we’ve seen a consistent inflow of new participants,» Swissblock analysts wrote in a Telegram broadcast. «Liquidity is stabilizing, no more erratic swings from early 2025.»

«Once the liquidity gauge holds above the 50 line, short-term price action tends to follow with strength,» Swissblock analysts said. «With network growth aligning, key levels aren’t just being revisited, they’re being accumulated.»

«This is the kind of structural support that underpins sustainable rallies,» they concluded.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is not yet ready to make a decision on two critical features that issuers of the spot crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are hoping to add to their products.

The regulator delayed a decision on whether it will allow in-kind redemptions for WisdomTree’s Bitcoin Fund (BTCW) and VanEck’s Bitcoin Fund (BITB) and Ethereum Fund (ETHW) on Monday. It also moved its deadline for a decision in regards to a proposal by Grayscale to allow staking its Ethereum Trust (ETHE) and Mini Ethereum Trust (ETH), which the asset manager’s exchange, NYSE Arca had requested in February.

Cboe, the exchange that is associated with five of the other issuers of an ether ETF, including Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, VanEck and Invesco/Galaxy, submitted its amended filing in March for the Fidelity Ethereum Fund (FETH) and the Franklin Ethereum ETF (EZET).

The SEC has not previously allowed staking in spot ether ETFs. But with the appointment of new SEC Chair Paul Atkins, who was confirmed by the Senate last week, things could change quickly.

Several other jurisdictions, including Hong Kong, Canada and Europe, have already green-lighted staking for ETFs, but that doesn’t put much pressure on the SEC, said one expert.

“The SEC will take their time and move as fast or as slow as they want,” said James Seyffart, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “They don’t care what other regulators are doing in my experience, they might learn from them but I don’t think a regulator approving something is going to make the SEC jump through hoops and catch up. They’ll go at their own pace.”

The regulator now has until June 3rd to make a decision on in-kind redemptions on Bitwise’s and WisdomTree’s products and June 1st to decide on Grayscale’s staking proposal.