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BTC, Gold Jump as Shutdown Delays Data, Fuels Rate-Cut Bets: Crypto Daybook Americas

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By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin (BTC) may be entering a decisive phase as macro and crypto-specific forces converge.

With the U.S. government shutdown and traditional market indicators like employment reports delayed, traders are leaning into alternative assets, especially bitcoin and gold. BTC climbed to $120,000 after rallying 9% this week, while gold rose 2.9% to touch $3,900.

The shutdown has furloughed over 90% of SEC staff and left the CFTC with a skeleton crew. Reacting to the shutdown markets rallied, as investors see the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 bps later this month as a near certainty over an unexpected drop in U.S. private payrolls and a delay in other key economic data.

“Traders have lacked immediate catalysts, evidenced by subdued commitment following the FOMC meeting, even as gold and equities have posted strong gains. However, the broader trend remains higher as we move into a rate-cutting cycle,” Jake Ostrovskis, Head of OTC Trading at Wintermute, told CoinDesk.

Lower interest rates make risk assets like cryptocurrencies more attractive, and that’s coming in a month where sentiment is high given historical performance.

«October has historically been a bullish month for bitcoin, and early signs suggest this year may be no exception.» said Gadi Chait of Xapo Bank, in an emailed statement. «Far from being a speculative outlier, bitcoin continues to show its ability to defy the odds and assert itself as a digital asset with staying power.”

On-chain data backs that up. Apparent bitcoin demand has grown by roughly 62,000 BTC per month since July, according to CryptoQuant, driven largely by ETFs and whales. For context, ETF holdings surged by 71% in fourth-quarter 2024.

On top of that, the crypto-native market has kept on growing.

“Over the past month, DeFi’s share of trading activity has been climbing significantly, expanding both the market and our opportunity,” dYdX Labs President Eddie Zhang told CoinDesk.

“A big driver of this shift is the renewed energy and participation we’re seeing out of Asia. We believe DeFi is beginning to fulfill its long-standing promise, and the pace of market adoption is accelerating in response.»

Looking ahead, crypto markets are anticipating other potential catalysts: ETF decisions for several altcoins including solana and XRP that could be delayed over the shutdown, and Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade, which is slowly moving closer. Stay alert!

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Week Ahead.

  • Crypto
    • Oct. 3: SOL treasury firm Brera Holdings begins trading under new ticker SLMT on Nasdaq, reflecting its impending name change to Solmate.
  • Macro
    • Oct. 3, 9 a.m.: S&P Global Brazil Sept. PMI. Composite (Prev. 48.3), Services (Prev. 49.3).
    • Oct. 3, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global Canada Sept. PMI. Composite (Prev. 48.4), Services (Prev. 48.6).
    • Oct. 3, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global U.S. Sept. PMI (final). Composite Est. 53.6, Services Est. 53.9.
    • Oct. 3, 10 a.m.: U.S. ISM Sept. Services PMI Est. 51.7.
    • Oct. 3, 1:40 p.m.: Fed Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson delivers a speech on «U.S. Economic Outlook and the Fed’s Monetary Policy Framework» in Philadelphia.
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • Nothing scheduled.

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Week Ahead.

  • Governance votes & calls
  • Unlocks
    • Oct. 3: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.26% of its circulating supply worth $17.56 million.
  • Token Launches
    • Oct. 3: EVAA Protocol (EVAA) to be listed on Binance Alpha, MEXC and others.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Week Ahead.

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

  • The crypto market rose on Friday with tokens including ETH, SOL and XRP all rising more than 2%, while smaller altcoins like ETHFI and CAKE climbed as much as 25%.
  • The relative strength comes as bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, hit $120,000 on Thursday as it takes aim at August’s record high above $124,000.
  • Still, unlike previous forays above $120,000, this move has been rather muted; with the price remaining in a tight range as opposed to a spike in volatility.
  • This bodes well for altcoins, which typically perform well when bitcoin consolidates as it allows capital to rotate from bitcoin to more speculative bets.
  • However, the upside shift has not been kind to a select few tokens, notably MYX Finance (MYX), which was dealt a grueling 43% decline due to a rapid unwind of leverage.
  • Plasma’s XPL token, as reported in Thursday’s Daybook, continues to stutter amid speculation around whether market makers are shorting on behalf of the founding team, a claim that XPL founders have denied.

Derivatives Positioning

  • The BTC futures market remains strongly bullish, with open interest holding at all-time highs above $32 billion. The three-month annualized basis is also elevated, approaching 8%.
  • A notable divergence exists, however, in funding rates. Deribit’s rate is exceptionally high at 25%, while other exchanges like Bybit show more neutral funding, suggesting a potential concentration of aggressive long positions in specific areas.
  • The BTC options market is showing a state of neutrality. The 24-hour put-call volume is still slightly call-dominated at 52.25%, but this is a decrease from previous days, indicating a potential moderation of bullish conviction.
  • Concurrently, the 1-week 25 delta skew is now essentially flat at 0.33%, signaling a balanced implied volatility for both puts and calls.
  • This combination of metrics suggests a market that is settling into a more balanced and hesitant phase after a period of stronger bullish sentiment.
  • Coinglass data shows $380 million in 24 hour liquidations, with a 35-65 split between longs and shorts. Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $121,300 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price rise.

Market Movements

  • BTC is down 0.3% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $120,378.11 (24hrs: +1.44%)
  • ETH is down 0.4% at $4,476.43 (24hrs: +2.05%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is down 0.55% at 4,297.29 (24hrs: +1.59%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged at 2.87%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0023% (2.5185% annualized) on KuCon

CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

  • DXY is unchanged at 97.76
  • Gold futures are up 0.39% at $3,883.00
  • Silver futures are up 1.87% at $47.24
  • Nikkei 225 closed up 1.85% at 45,769.50
  • Hang Seng closed down 0.54% at 27,140.92
  • FTSE is up 0.63% at 9,486.91
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.16% at 5,654.70
  • DJIA closed on Thursday up 0.17% at 46,519.72
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.06% at 6,715.35
  • Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.39% at 22,844.05
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.18% at 30,160.59
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.42% at 2,893.79
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 0.2 bps at 4.088%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.27% at 6,785.25
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.28% at 25,180.75
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.28% at 46,937.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 58.79% (unchanged)
  • Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03722 (unchanged)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,059 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $50.69
  • Total Fees: 4.14 BTC / $495,121
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 141,485 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 31.2 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 8.81%

Technical Analysis

TA OCt 3

  • Ether has deviated back into the weekly range after tapping the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) on the daily chart and is now trading at the $4,500 level.
  • While the price is trading above all key EMAs on the daily, it is currently within a bearish daily order block, an area of interest for a potential pullback.
  • Bulls will want to see a break above this level followed by a successful retest to target the range highs and, eventually, the all-time highs.

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $372.07 (+7.48%), +0.36% at $373.42
  • Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $149.72 (+16.04%), -0.68% at $148.70
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $36.52 (+1.93%), +0.77% at $36.80
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $67.91 (+11.68%), -0.6% at $67.50
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $18.79 (+0.97%), +0.85% at $18.95
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $19.25 (+1.69%), +0.73% at $19.39
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $18.1 (+0.72%)
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $15.14 (+3.77%), +1.52% at $15.37
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $46.49 (+3.15%), +0.56% at $46.75
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $30.86 (+9.01%), +0.42% at $30.99

Crypto Treasury Companies

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed at $352.33 (+4.11%), unchanged in pre-market
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $31.36 (+1.06%), -0.19% at $31.30
  • SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $18.09 (+4.15%), +1.05% at $18.28
  • Upexi (UPXI): closed at $7.29 (+11.64%), +0.96% at $7.36
  • Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $2.68 (+4.69%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flow: $627.2 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $59.03 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~ 1.32 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flow: $307.1 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $14.20 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~ 6.64 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

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AAVE Sees 64% Flash Crash as DeFi Protocol Endures ‘Largest Stress Test’

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The native token of Aave (AAVE), the largest decentralized crypto lending protocol, was caught in the middle of Friday’s crypto flash crash while the protocol proved resilient in a historic liquidation cascade.

The token, trading at around $270 earlier in Friday, nosedived as much as 64% later in the session to touch $100, the lowest level in 14 months. It then staged a rapid rebound to near $240, still down 10% over the past 24 hours.

Stani Kulechov, founder of Aave, described Friday’s event as the «largest stress test» ever for the protocol and its $75 billion lending infrastructure.

The platform enables investors to lend and borrow digital assets without conventional intermediaries, using innovative mechanisms such as flash loans. Despite the extreme volatility, Aave’s performance underscores the evolving maturity and resilience of DeFi markets.

«The protocol operated flawlessly, automatically liquidating a record $180M worth of collateral in just one hour, without any human intervention,» Kulechov said in a Friday X post. «Once again, Aave has proven its resilience.»

Key price action:

  • AAVE sustained a dramatic flash crash on Friday, declining 64% from $278.27 to $100.18 before recuperating to $240.09.
  • The DeFi protocol demonstrated remarkable resilience with its native token’s 140% recovery from the intraday lows, underpinned by substantial trading volume of 570,838 units.
  • Following the volatility, AAVE entered consolidation territory within a narrow $237.71-$242.80 range as markets digested the dramatic price action.
Technical Indicators Summary
  • Price range of $179.12 representing 64% volatility during the 24-hour period.
  • Volume surged to 570,838 units, substantially exceeding the 175,000 average.
  • Near-term resistance identified at $242.80 capping rebound during consolidation phase.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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Blockchain Will Drive the Agent-to-Agent AI Marketplace Boom

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AI agents, software systems that use AI to pursue goals and complete tasks on behalf of users, are proliferating. Think of them as digital assistants that can make decisions and take actions towards goals you set without needing step-by-step instructions — from GPT-powered calendar managers to trading bots, the number of use cases is expanding rapidly. As their role expands across the economy, we have to build the right infrastructure that will allow these agents to communicate, collaborate and trade with one another in an open marketplace.

Big tech players like Google and AWS are building early marketplaces and commerce protocols, but that raises the question: will they aim to extract massive rents through walled gardens once more? Agents’ capabilities are clearly rising, almost daily, with the arrival of new models and architectures. What’s at risk is whether these agents will be truly autonomous.

Autonomous agents are valuable because they unlock a novel user experience: a shift from software as passive or reactive tools to active and even proactive partners. Instead of waiting for instructions, they can anticipate needs, adapt to changing conditions, and coordinate with other systems in real time, without the user’s constant input or presence. This autonomy in decision-making makes them uniquely suited for a world where speed and complexity outpace human decision-making.

Naturally, some worry about what greater decision-making autonomy means for work and accountability — but I see it as an opportunity. When agents handle repetitive, time-intensive tasks and parallelize what previously had to be done in sequence, they expand our productive capacity as humans — freeing people to engage in work that demands creativity, judgment, composition and meaningful connection. This isn’t make-believe, humanity has been there before: the arrival of corporations allowed entrepreneurs to create entirely new products and levels of wealth previously unthought of. AI agents have the potential to bring that capability to everyone.

On the intelligence side, truly autonomous decision-making requires AI agent infrastructure that is open source and transparent. OpenAI’s recent OSS release is a good step. Chinese labs, such as DeepSeek (DeepSeek), Moonshot AI (Kimi K2) and Alibaba (Qwen 3), have moved even quicker.

However, autonomy is not purely tied to intelligence and decision making. Without resources, an AI agent has little means to enact change in the real world. Hence, for agents to be truly autonomous they need to have access to resources and self-custody their assets. Programmable, permissionless, and composable blockchains are the ideal substrate for agents to do so.

Picture two scenarios. One where AI agents operate within a Web 2 platform like AWS or Google. They exist within the limited parameters set by these platforms in what is essentially a closed and permissioned environment. Now imagine a decentralized marketplace that spans many blockchain ecosystems. Developers can compose different sets of environments and parameters, therefore, the scope available to AI agents to operate is unlimited, accessible globally, and can evolve over time. One scenario looks like a toy idea of a marketplace, and the other is an actual global economy.

In other words, to truly scale not just AI agent adoption, but agent-to-agent commerce, we need rails that only blockchains can offer.

The Limits of Centralized Marketplaces

AWS recently announced an agent-to-agent marketplace aimed at addressing the growing demand for ready-made agents. But their approach inherits the same inefficiencies and limitations that have long plagued siloed systems. Agents must wait for human verification, rely on closed APIs and operate in environments where transparency is optional, if it exists at all.

To act autonomously and at scale, agents can’t be boxed into closed ecosystems that restrict functionality, pose platform risks, impose opaque fees, or make it impossible to verify what actions were taken and why.

Decentralization Scales Agent Systems

An open ecosystem allows for agents to act on behalf of users, coordinate with other agents, and operate across services without permissioned barriers.

Blockchains already offer the key tools needed. Smart contracts allow agents to perform tasks automatically, with rules embedded in code, while stablecoins and tokens enable instant, global value transfers without payment friction. Smart accounts, which are programmable blockchain wallets like Safe, allow users to restrict agents in their activity and scope (via guards). For instance, an agent may only be allowed to use whitelisted protocols. These tools allow AI agents not only to behave expansively but also to be contained within risk parameters defined by the end user. For example, this could be setting spending limits, requiring multi-signatures for approvals, or restricting agents to whitelisted protocols.

Blockchain also provides the transparency needed so users can audit agent decisions, even when they aren’t directly involved. At the same time, this doesn’t mean that all agent-to-agent interactions need to happen onchain. E.g. AI agents can use offchain APIs with access constraints defined and payments executed onchain.

In short, decentralized infrastructure gives agents the tools to operate more freely and efficiently than closed systems allow.

It’s Already Happening Onchain

While centralized players are still refining their agent strategies, blockchain is already enabling early forms of agent-to-agent interaction. Onchain agents are already exhibiting more advanced behavior like purchasing predictions and data from other agents. And as more open frameworks emerge, developers are building agents that can access services, make payments, and even subscribe to other agents — all without human involvement.

Protocols are already implementing the next step: monetization. With open marketplaces, people and businesses are able to rent agents, earn from specialized ones, and build new services that plug directly into this agent economy. Customisation of payment models such as subscription, one-off payments, or bundled packages will also be key in facilitating different user needs. This will unlock an entirely new model of economic participation.

Why This Distinction Matters

Without open systems, fragmentation breaks the promise of seamless AI support. An agent can easily bring tasks to completion if it stays within an individual ecosystem, like coordinating between different Google apps. However, where third-party platforms are necessary (across social, travel, finance, etc), an open onchain marketplace will allow agents to programmatically acquire the various services and goods they need to complete a user’s request.

Decentralized systems avoid these limitations. Users can own, modify, and deploy agents tailored to their needs without relying on vendor-controlled environments.

We’ve already seen this work in DeFi, with DeFi legos. Bots automate lending strategies, manage positions, and rebalance portfolios, sometimes better than any human could. Now, that same approach is being applied as “agent legos” across sectors including logistics, gaming, customer support, and more.

The Path Forward

The agent economy is growing fast. What we build now will shape how it functions and for whom it works. If we rely solely on centralized systems, we risk creating another generation of AI tools that feel useful but ultimately serve the platform, not the person.

Blockchain changes that. It enables systems where agents act on your behalf, earn on your ideas, and plug into a broader, open marketplace.

If we want agents that collaborate, transact, and evolve without constraint, then the future of agent-to-agent marketplaces must live onchain.

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‘Largest Ever’ Crypto Liquidation Event Wipes Out 6,300 Wallets on Hyperliquid

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More than 1,000 wallets on Hyperliquid were completely liquidated during the recent violent crypto sell-off, which erased over $1.23 billion in trader capital on the platform, according to data from its leaderboard.

In total, 6,300 wallets are now in the red, with 205 losing over $1 million each according to the data, which was first spotted by Lookonchain. More than 1,000 accounts saw losses of at least $100,000.

The wipeout came as crypto markets reeled from a global risk-off event triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% additional tariff on Chinese imports.

The move spooked investors across asset classes and sent cryptocurrency prices tumbling. Bitcoin briefly dropped below $110,000 and ether fell under $3,700, while the broader market as measured by the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index dropped by 15% at one point.

The broad sell-off led to over $19 billion in liquidations over a 24 hours period, making it the largest single-day liquidation event in crypto history by dollar value. According to CoinGlass, the “actual total” of liquidations is “likely much higher” as leading crypto exchange Binance doesn’t report as quickly as other platforms.

Leaderboard data reviewed by CoinDesk shows the top 100 traders on Hyperliquid gained $1.69 billion collectively.

In comparison, the top 100 losers dropped $743.5 million, leaving a net profit of $951 million concentrated among a handful of highly leveraged short sellers.

The biggest winner was wallet 0x5273…065f, which made over $700 million from short positions, while the largest loser, “TheWhiteWhale,” dropped $62.5 million.

Among the victims of the flush is crypto personality Jeffrey Huang, known online as Machi Big Brother, who once launched a defamation suit against ZachXBT, losing almost the entire value of his wallet, amounting to $14 million.

«Was fun while it lasted,» he posted on X.

Adding to the uncertainty, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data. Without official indicators, markets are flying blind at a time when geopolitical risk is rising.

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