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Risk-On Positions Undermined by 1M U.S. Jobs Revision: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (all times ET unless stated otherwise)
Just 10 days after the U.S. Department of Commerce started posting economic data on a selection of blockchains, the reliability of its data is being questioned by some observers.
On Tuesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics disclosed a startling figure: The economy created nearly 1 million fewer jobs than reported in the year ended March. The record revision calls into question earlier optimism about the strength of the labor market, casting doubt on all risk-on positions traders took in the past year or so.
Markets interpreted the downward revisions as another sign the Fed will introduce aggressive easing in the coming months. One popular Polymarket trader is betting that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points on Sept. 17.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading above $112,000, having reached lows of around $110,800 during North American trading hours yesterday. European stocks are higher with the S&P 500 futures pointing to a positive open later Wednesday.
Still, caution may be warranted for two reasons: The U.S. producer price and consumer price indices due in the next 24 hours are likely to show that inflation remains elevated and well above the Fed’s 2% target. Stagflation concerns may grip the market, weakening the case for aggressive Fed easing, if these data sets blow past expectations.
The second reason is that the liquidity tightening is underway.
«Liquidity is tightening as the Treasury General Account rises and the reverse repo facility drains, pushing reserve balances lower,» Mott Capital Management said. «With SOFR climbing, spreads widening, and credit stress showing up, the market may soon face renewed pressure on risk assets.»
This is probably the reason why put options tied to bitcoin and ether continue to trade pricier than calls on Deribit, reflecting downside concerns.
In other news, crypto staking platform Kiln said it is exiting its Ethereum validators due to an exploit incident that affected SwissBorg.
Real-world asset protocols continue to grow, with a total value locked of now over $15 billion.
Lastly, a single entity earned $200 million from the MYX airdrop. Talk about windfall gain. Stay alert!
What to Watch
- Crypto
- Sept. 10, 9:15 a.m.: Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan V. Gould will talk about digital assets at the CoinDesk: Policy & Regulation Conference in Washington.
- Sept. 11: REX Shares and Osprey Funds’ Dogecoin ETF shares to start trading on Cboe BZX Exchange under ticker DOJE.
- Macro
- Sept. 10, 8 a.m.: Brazil August CPI. Inflation rate YoY Est. 5.1%, MoM Est. -0.15%.
- Sept. 10, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. August PPI YoY Est. 3.3%, MoM Est. 0.3%. Core YoY Est. 3.5%, MoM Est. 0.3%.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- None scheduled.
Token Events
- Governance votes & calls
- Goldfinch DAO is voting on the Goldfinch Foundation’s annual budget of $400,000 and 200,000 GFI. Voting ends Sept. 10.
- Compound DAO is voting on extending its COMP yield strategy. Voting ends Sept. 11.
- Hyperliquid to vote on who issues its USDH stablecoin. Voting takes place Sept. 14.
- Unlocks
- Sept. 11: Aptos (APT) to unlock 2.2% of its circulating supply worth $50.89 million.
- Token Launches
- Sept. 10: Linea (LINEA) to be listed on Binance Alpha, KuCoin, MEXC, KuCoin, Bitget OKX, CoinW, and others.
- Sept. 10: Kong (KONG) to be listed on KuCoin.
Conferences
The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation Conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB15 for 15% off your registration.
- Day 4 of 4: Future Proof Festival (Huntington Beach, California)
- Day 2 of 2: Fintech Week London 2025
- Day 2 of 2: WOW Summit Hong Kong 2025
- Day 2 of 5: Boston Blockchain Week (Quincy, Massachusetts)
- Sept. 10: CoinDesk Policy & Regulation Conference (New York)
- Sept. 10: Future of Finance (New York)
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- The crypto market has entered «altcoin season» despite sentiment remaining in bearish territory.
- CoinMarketCap’s altcoin season index has ticked up to 59/100, topping August’s high of 57 as capital continues to rotate into the more speculative tokens.
- Market intelligence platform Santiment noted that while prices are moving to the upside, sentiment is becoming more negative.
- «Traders have changed their tunes, swinging more and more negative with expectations of bitcoin falling back below $100K, Ethereum back below $3.5K, and altcoins going through a retrace period,» Santiment wrote on X.
- Altcoins remain unperturbed with mantle (MNT) and pyth (PYTH) leading the way, gaining 15% and 10%, respectively, over the past 24 hours.
- Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency in terms of market cap, continues to languish around $112,500.
- Previous altcoin seasons have occurred when bitcoin consolidates as traders rotated capital to speculative assets without the risk of missing out on a major BTC move.
- Bitcoin has been trading between $107,000 and $113,000 for more than two weeks after failing to break beyond $124,000.
Derivatives Positioning
By Omkar Godbole
- BTC’s futures open interest (OI) has remained steady over the past 24 hours as traders sit on the sidelines ahead of tomorrow’s U.S. CPI release.
- OI in ETH, SOL and HYPE has increased by over 2%, while XRP, SUI, ADA, and ENA have seen capital outflows.
- Annualized funding rates for top coins except TRX and XLM are hovering at or above 10%, indicating a bullish bias but nothing out of ordinary. In other words, there are no signs of excess leverage buildup or overheating.
- On the CME, notional open interest in BTC options has climbed to a record $5.6 billion, while activity in futures remains subdued.
- On Deribit, BTC and ETH puts out to December expiry continue to trade at a premium to calls, indicating lingering downside concerns.
- Block flows at OTC desk Paradigm featured a long position in the ether $4,000 put expiring on Sept. 26.
Market Movements
- BTC is up 0.68% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $112,296.28 (24hrs: -0.35%)
- ETH is up 0.47% at $4,325.02 (24hrs: -0.54%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 0.87% at 4,128.56 (24hrs: -0.59%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 3 bps at 2.87%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0103% (11.2785% annualized) on KuCoin
- DXY is unchanged at 97.76
- Gold futures are up 0.1% at $3,686.00
- Silver futures are up 0.65% at $41.61
- Nikkei 225 closed up 0.87% at 43,837.67
- Hang Seng closed up 1.01% at 26,200.26
- FTSE is up 0.25% at 9,265.34
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.25% at 5,382.08
- DJIA closed on Tuesday up 0.43% at 45,711.34
- S&P 500 closed up 0.27% at 6,512.61
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.37% at 21,879.49
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.12% at 29,063.01
- S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 2,800.26
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 1.3 bps at 4.087%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.14% at 6,530.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 23,886.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.26% at 45,640.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 58.19% (unchanged)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03848 (-0.38%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 992 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $52.47
- Total fees: 4.61 BTC / $517,036
- CME Futures Open Interest: 134,650 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 30.7 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 8.68%
Technical Analysis
- Dogecoin printed a Doji candle Tuesday, which indicates lack of willingness among bulls and bears to lead the price action.
- The emergence of Doji has neutralized the bullish outlook stemming from the descending trendline breakout confirmed Sunday.
- Tuesday’s high of 25 cents is the new level to beat for the bulls.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Tuesday at $318.78 (+5.49%), +0.56% at $320.57 in pre-market
- Circle (CRCL): closed at $117.99 (+4.92%), +1.07% at $119.25
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $26.58 (+9.74%), +1.35% at $26.94
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $53.81 (+7.36%), unchanged in pre-market
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.93 (+4.8%), +0.75% at $16.05
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $15.21 (+13.17%), +0.85% at $15.34
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.53 (+4.31%), +2.96% at $14.96
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.67 (+5.45%), +1.03% at $9.77
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $33.13 (+11.59%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $26.75 (+1.71%), unchanged in pre-market
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $328.53 (-0.42%), +0.69% at $330.80
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $28.07 (-0.78%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $16.69 (+6.51%), +0.48% at $16.77
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $5.5 (-2.83%), +3.45% at $5.69
- Mei Pharma (MEIP): closed at $2.78 (-7.33%), +4.32% at $2.90
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $23 million
- Cumulative net flows: $54.85 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: $44.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $12.69 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.36 million
Source: Farside Investors
Chart of the Day
- The combined market cap of the two largest stablecoins, Tether’s USDT and Circle Internet’s USDC, continues to set new highs, indicating persistent demand for dollar-linked assets despite Fed rate cut bets.
- The Fed is expected to cut rates at its Sept. 17 meeting.
While You Were Sleeping
- Bitcoin Retakes $112K, SOL hits 7-Month High as Economists Downplay Recession Fears (CoinDesk): The U.S. cut 911,000 jobs from payroll estimates for the year ended March 2025, unsettling markets, but economists said the revision signaled slower labor force growth rather than recession or stagflation.
- Gold Pushes Toward Record as Traders Wait for Inflation Prints (Bloomberg): Gold rose, fueled by rate-cut expectations, central bank buying, ETF inflows, Israel’s strike in Doha and President Trump urging the EU to join him in new tariffs on India and China.
- Judge Blocks Trump From Removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook (The Wall Street Journal): Judge Jia Cobb said Cook was likely to prevail since removals must be based only on a Fed governor’s conduct while in office, rather than unproven, pre-appointment allegations.
- Metaplanet to Raise $1.4B in International Share Sale, Stock Jumps 16% (CoinDesk): Metaplanet is selling the shares at 553 yen each, with NAKA committing to buy $30 million worth.
- Poland Says It Shot Down Russian Drones That Entered Its Airspace (The New York Times): Poland’s military said Russian drones crossed its airspace during strikes on Ukraine, prompting Poland and NATO air forces to deploy warplanes and close skies over Warsaw.
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AI, Mining News: GPU Gold Rush: Why Bitcoin Miners Are Powering AI’s Expansion

When Core Scientific signed a $3.5 billion deal to host artificial intelligence (AI) data centers earlier this year, it wasn’t chasing the next crypto token — it was chasing a steadier paycheck. Once known for its vast fleets of bitcoin mining rigs, the company is now part of a growing trend: converting energy-intensive mining operations into high-performance AI facilities.
Bitcoin miners like Core, Hut 8 (HUT) and TeraWulf (WULF) are swapping ASIC machines — the dedicated bitcoin mining computer — for GPU clusters, driven by the lure of AI’s explosive growth and the harsh economics of crypto mining.
Power play
It’s no secret that bitcoin mining requires an extensive amount of energy, which is the biggest cost of minting a new digital asset.
Back in the 2021 bull run, when the Bitcoin network’s hashrate and difficulty were low, miners were making out like bandits with margins as much as 90%. Then came the brutal crypto winter and the halving event, which slashed the mining reward in half. In 2025, with surging hashrate and energy prices, miners are now struggling to survive with razor-thin margins.
However, the need for power—the biggest input cost—became a blessing in disguise for these miners, who needed a different strategy to diversify their revenue sources.
Due to rising competition for mining, the miners continued to procure more machines to stay afloat, and with it came the need for more megawatts of electricity at a cheaper price. Miners invested heavily in securing these low-cost energy sources, such as hydroelectric or stranded natural gas sites, and developed expertise in managing high-density cooling and electrical systems—skills honed during the crypto boom of the early 2020s.
This is what captured the attention of AI and cloud computing firms. While bitcoin relies on specialized ASICs, AI thrives on versatile GPUs like Nvidia’s H100 series, which require similar high-power environments but for parallel processing tasks in machine learning. Instead of building out data centers from scratch, taking over mining infrastructure, which already has power ready, became a faster way to grow an increasing appetite for AI-related infrastructure.
Essentially, these miners aren’t just pivoting—they’re retrofitting.
The cooling systems, low-cost energy contracts, and power-dense infrastructure they built during the crypto boom now serve a new purpose: feeding the AI models of companies like OpenAI and Google.
Firms like Crusoe Energy sold off mining assets to focus solely on AI, deploying GPU clusters in remote, energy-rich locations that mirror the decentralized ethos of crypto but now fuel centralized AI hyperscalers.
Terraforming AI
Bitcoin mining has effectively «terraformed» the terrain for AI compute by building out scalable, power-efficient infrastructure that AI desperately needs.
As Nicholas Gregory, Board Director at Fragrant Prosperity, noted, «It can be argued bitcoin paved the way for digital dollar payments as can be seen with USDT/Tether. It also looks like bitcoin terraformed data centres for AI/GPU compute.»
This pre-existing «terraforming» allows miners to retrofit facilities quickly, often in under a year, compared to the multi-year timelines for traditional data center builds. Firms like Crusoe Energy sold off mining assets to focus solely on AI, deploying GPU clusters in remote, energy-rich locations that mirror the decentralized ethos of crypto but now fuel centralized AI hyperscalers.
Higher returns
In practice, it means miners can flip a facility in less than a year—far faster than the multi-year timeline of a new data center.
But AI isn’t a cheap upgrade.
Bitcoin mining setups are relatively modest, with costs ranging from $300,000 to $800,000 per megawatt (MW) excluding ASICs, allowing for quick scalability in response to market cycles. Meanwhile, AI infrastructure demands significantly higher capex due to the need for advanced liquid cooling, redundant power systems, and the GPUs themselves, which can cost tens of thousands per unit and face global supply shortages. Despite the steeper upfront costs, AI offers miners up to 25 times more revenue per kilowatt-hour than bitcoin mining, making the pivot economically compelling amid rising energy prices and declining crypto profitability.
A niche industry worth billions
As AI continues to surge and crypto profits tighten, bitcoin mining could become a niche game—one reserved for energy-rich regions or highly efficient players, especially as the next in 2028 could render many operations unprofitable without breakthroughs in efficiency or energy costs.
While projections show the global crypto mining market growing to $3.3 billion by 2030, at a modest 6.9% CAGR, the billions would be overshadowed by AI’s exponential expansion. According to KBV Research, the global AI in mining market is projected to reach $435.94 billion by 2032, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40.6%.
With investors already seeing dollar signs in this shift, the broader trend suggests the future is either a hybrid or a full conversion to AI, where stable contracts with hyperscalers promise longevity over crypto’s boom-bust cycles.
This evolution not only repurposes idle assets but also underscores how yesterday’s crypto frontiers are forging tomorrow’s AI empires.
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Bitcoin Climbs as Economy Cracks — Is it Bullish or Bearish?

Bitcoin (BTC) is about 4% higher than it was a week ago—good news for the digital asset but bad news for the economy.
The recent negative tone of the economic data points from last week raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates on Wednesday, making riskier assets such as stocks and bitcoin more attractive.
Let’s recap the data that backs up that thesis.
The most important one, the U.S. CPI figures, came out on Thursday. The headline rate was slightly higher than expected, a sign inflation might be stickier than anticipated.
Before that, we had Tuesday’s revisions to job data. The world’s largest economy created almost 1 million fewer jobs than reported in the year ended March, the largest downward revision in the country’s history.
The figures followed the much-watched monthly jobs report, which was released the previous Friday. The U.S. added just 22,000 jobs in August, with unemployment rising to 4.3%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Initial jobless claims rose 27,000 to 263,000 — the highest since October 2021.
Higher inflation and fewer jobs are not great for the U.S. economy, so it’s no surprise that the word «stagflation» is starting to creep back into macroeconomic commentary.
Against this backdrop, bitcoin—considered a risk asset by Wall Street—continued grinding higher, topping $116,000 on Friday and almost closing the CME futures gap at 117,300 from August.
Not a surprise, as traders are also bidding up the biggest risk assets: equities. Just take a look at the S&P 500 index, which closed at a record for the second day on the hope of a rate cut.
So how should traders think about BTC’s price chart?
To this chart enthusiast, price action remains constructive, with higher lows forming from the September bottom of $107,500. The 200-day moving average has climbed to $102,083, while the Short-Term Holder Realized Price — often used as support in bull markets — rose to a record $109,668.
Bitcoin-linked stocks: A mixed bag
However, bitcoin’s weekly positive price action didn’t help Strategy (MSTR), the largest of the bitcoin treasury companies, whose shares were about flat for the week. Its rivals performed better: MARA Holdings (MARA) 7% and XXI (CEP) 4%.
Strategy (MSTR) has underperformed bitcoin year-to-date and continues to hover below its 200-day moving average, currently $355. At Thursday’s close of $326, it’s testing a key long-term support level seen back in September 2024 and April 2025.
The company’s mNAV premium has compressed to below 1.5x when accounting for outstanding convertible debt and preferred stock, or roughly 1.3x based solely on equity value.
Preferred stock issuance remains muted, with only $17 million tapped across STRK and STRF this week, meaning that the bulk of at-the-money issuance is still flowing through common shares. According to the company, options are now listed and trading for all four perpetual preferred stocks, a development that could provide additional yield on the dividend.
Bullish catalysts for crypto stocks?
The CME’s FedWatch tool shows traders expect a 25 basis-point U.S. interest-rate cut in September and have priced in a total of three rate cuts by year-end.
That’s a sign risk sentiment could tilt back toward growth and crypto-linked equities, underlined by the 10-year U.S. Treasury briefly breaking below 4% this week.
Still, the dollar index (DXY) continues to hold multiyear support, a potential inflection point worth watching.
Uncategorized
Fed’s Sept. 17 Rate Cut Could Spark Short-Term Jitters but Supercharge Bitcoin, Gold and Stocks Long Term

Investors are counting down to the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 17 meeting, where markets expect a quarter-point rate cut that could trigger short-term volatility but potentially fuel longer-term gains across risk assets.
The economic backdrop highlights the Fed’s delicate balancing act.
According to the latest CPI report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday, consumer prices rose 0.4% in August, lifting the annual CPI rate to 2.9% from 2.7% in July, as shelter, food, and gasoline pushed costs higher. Core CPI also climbed 0.3%, extending its steady pace of recent months.
Producer prices told a similar story: per the latest PPI report released on Wednesday, the headline PPI index slipped 0.1% in August but remained 2.6% higher than a year earlier, while core PPI advanced 2.8%, the largest yearly increase since March. Together, the reports underscore stubborn inflationary pressure even as growth slows.
The labor market has softened further.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22,000 in August, with federal government and energy sector job losses offsetting modest gains in health care. Unemployment held at 4.3%, while labor force participation remained stuck at 62.3%.
Revisions showed June and July job growth was weaker than initially reported, reinforcing signs of cooling momentum. Average hourly earnings still rose 3.7% year over year, keeping wage pressures alive.
Bond markets have adjusted accordingly. The 2-year Treasury yield sits at 3.56%, while the 10-year is at 4.07%, leaving the curve modestly inverted. Futures traders see a 93% chance of a 25 basis point cut, according to CME FedWatch.
If the Fed limits its move to just 25 bps, investors may react with a “buy the rumor, sell the news” response, since markets have already priced in relief.
Equities are testing record levels.
Equities are testing record levels. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,584 after rising 1.6% for the week, its best since early August. The index’s one-month chart shows a strong rebound from its late-August pullback, underscoring bullish sentiment heading into Fed week.
The Nasdaq Composite also notched five straight record highs, ending at 22,141, powered by gains in megacap tech stocks, while the Dow slipped below 46,000 but still booked a weekly advance.
Crypto and commodities have rallied alongside.
Bitcoin is trading at $115,234, below its Aug. 14 all-time high near $124,000 but still firmly higher in 2025, with the global crypto market cap now $4.14 trillion.
Gold has surged to $3,643 per ounce, near record highs, with its one-month chart showing a steady upward trajectory as investors price in lower real yields and seek inflation hedges.
Gold has climbed steadily toward record highs, while bitcoin has consolidated below its August peak, reflecting ongoing demand for alternative stores of value.
Historical precedent supports the cautious optimism.
Analysis from the Kobeissi Letter — reported in an X thread posted Saturday — citing Carson Research, shows that in 20 of 20 prior cases since 1980 where the Fed cut rates within 2% of S&P 500 all-time highs, the index was higher one year later, averaging gains of nearly 14%.
The shorter term is less predictable: in 11 of those 22 instances, stocks fell in the month following the cut. Kobeissi argues this time could follow a similar pattern — initial turbulence followed by longer-term gains as rate relief amplifies the momentum behind assets like equities, bitcoin, and gold.
The broader setup explains why traders are watching the Sept. 17 announcement closely.
Cutting rates while inflation edges higher and stocks hover at records risks denting credibility, yet staying on hold could spook markets that have already priced in easing. Either way, the Fed’s message on growth, inflation, and its policy outlook will likely shape the trajectory of markets for months to come.
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