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Bitcoin Treads Water, Gold Extends Gain as U.S. Jobs Report Looms: Crypto Daybook Americas

Published

2 недели ago

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By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin (BTC) rose just 0.6% in the last 24 hours, while the wider market as measured by the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index added 0.4%. The gain is overshadowed by gold’s increase and a major government bond sell-off.

The precious metal broke through $3,500 per ounce for the first time on Wednesday, helping the tokenized gold market to top $2.5 billion in value as growing bets see the Federal Reserve cutting rates this month. Gold’s advance comes as investors are wary of swelling government debt, prompting a sell-off in long-dated government bonds.

The yield on Japan’s 30-year government bond rose to a record 3.28% following similar moves in the U.S. and U.K. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield neared 5%, while British gilts reached levels not seen since 1998, at 5.7%.

The turmoil hasn’t added fuel to the crypto market, whose price action remains muted. Deribit’s bitcoin volatility index (DVOL) is now at 38.1, its lowest level since late 2023, while capital is seemingly rotating into ether (ETH).

While spot bitcoin ETFs saw $751 million in net outflows last month, spot ether ETFs brought in a net $3.87 billion. That rotation is also being seen on-chain.

Meanwhile, a joint statement from the SEC and CFTC clarified rules for compliant spot crypto trading in the agencies’ latest effort to clear a way forward for crypto in the U.S.

The statement failed to jolt the crypto market, seemingly as investors await Friday’s U.S. jobs report. A soft reading could nudge the Federal Reserve closer to lowering rates, which would boost the market and other risk assets.

A hotter-than-expected figure, however, could damp sentiment. September has historically been a negative month for the sector, with bitcoin recording a drop of 3.29% on average for the month according to CoinGlass data. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto
    • Sept. 3: First day of regular-hours trading on Nasdaq for American Bitcoin (ABTC). The company, backed by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., was formed through a reverse merger with Gryphon Digital Mining and listed after market close on Sept. 2.
    • Sept. 3, 10:15 a.m.: Tellor (TRB), a decentralized oracle network that operates as an Ethereum layer-2 blockchain, will upgrade its mainnet to version 5.1.1. The upgrade improves network performance and node operation.
    • Sept. 4: Polygon will switch its mainnet token to POL from MATIC. Holders of MATIC on Ethereum, Polygon zkEVM or centralized exchanges may need to take action.
    • Sept. 10, 9:15 a.m.: Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan V. Gould will talk about digital assets at the CoinDesk: Policy & Regulation Conference in Washington.
  • Macro
    • Sept. 3, 8 a.m.: Brazil’s Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases July industrial production data.
      • Industrial Production MoM Est. -0.3% vs. Prev. 0.1%
      • Industrial Production YoY Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. -1.3%
    • Sept. 3, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases August Brazil data on manufacturing and services activity.
      • Composite PMI Prev. 46.6
      • Services PMI Prev. 46.3
    • Sept. 3, 10 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases July labor market data (the JOLTS report).
      • Job Openings Est. 7.4M vs. Prev. 7.437M
      • Job Quits Prev. 3.142M
    • Sept. 4, 8:15 a.m.: Automatic Data Processing (ADP) releases August U.S. private-sector employment data.
      • Employment Change Est. 68K vs. Prev. 104K
    • Sept. 4, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases August Canada data on manufacturing and services activity.
      • Composite PMI Prev. 48.7
      • Services PMI Prev. 49.3
    • Sept. 4, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (final) August U.S. data on manufacturing and services activity.
      • Composite PMI Est. 55.4 vs. Prev. 55.1
      • Services PMI Est. 55.4 vs. Prev. 55.7
    • Sept. 4, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases August U.S. services sector data.
      • Services PMI Est. Est. 51 vs. Prev. 50.1
    • Sept. 4, 1 p.m.: Uruguay’s National Institute of Statistics releases August inflation data.
      • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 4.53%
    • Sept. 4, 3 p.m.: Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) releases August producer price inflation data.
      • PPI YoY Prev. 2.2%
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • Sept. 9: GameStop (GME), post-market

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
    • Arbitrum DAO is voting on upgrading Arbitrum One and Nova to ArbOS 50 Dia, adding support for Ethereum’s Fusaka fork, new EIPs, bug fixes and a native mint/burn feature (for Orbit chains only). Voting ends Sept. 4.
    • Uniswap DAO is voting on deploying Uniswap v3 on Ronin with $1M in RON and $500K in UNI incentives to make it the chain’s primary decentralized exchange. Voting ends Sept. 6.
    • Lido DAO is voting on a proposal to migrate Nethermind’s ~7,000 Ethereum validators to infrastructure operated by Twinstake, a staking provider co-founded by Nethermind. Voting ends Sept. 8.
    • Sept. 2, 6 a.m.: Bybit and Centrifuge to host an ask me anything (AMA) session on X spaces.
    • Sept. 3: Stellar (XLM) to host vote on Protocol 23 mainnet upgrade.
    • Sept. 3, 10 am: Lido to host a Poolside Community Call.
    • Sept. 3, 10 a.m.: Zebec Network ZBCN$0.004202 to host spaces event on blockchain integrations.
    • Sept. 3, 12:30 p.m.: Aptos (APT) to host hangout on ecosystem updates.
    • Sept. 4, 10 a.m.: Olympus(OHM) to host community call.
  • Unlocks
    • Sept. 5: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.27% of its circulating supply worth $13.26 million.
    • Sept. 11: Aptos (APT) to unlock 2.2% of its circulating supply worth $48.18 million.
    • Sept. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 5.98% of its circulating supply worth $16.39 million.
    • Sept. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.18% of its circulating supply worth $16 million.
    • Sept. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $47.15 million.
  • Token Launches
    • Sept. 3: Moonchain (MCH) to be listed on Binance Alpha, MEXC, Gate.io and others.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation Conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB15 for 15% off your registration.

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

  • Bitcoin (BTC) dominance, a key metric when assessing whether the crypto market is in «altcoin season» has ticked down another notch to around 58%, having been above 61% just 30 days ago.
  • The drop-off demonstrates a change in trader behavior: Typically altcoins perform poorly when BTC enters a downtrend, this time, however, many have held their value while some have outperformed the market’s largest asset.
  • Bitcoin is down by 2.91% in the past 30 days while the likes of ether (ETH) and solana (SOL) are up by 21% and 27.5%, respectively.
  • While the gains have been driven by the adoption of several altcoins in corporate treasuries, they can also be attributed to a recalibration of the entire market.
  • During BTC’s rise to a $124,000 record high last month, the narrative was solely focused on bitcoin and it’s perceived correlation with the well-performing tech sector in equities.
  • It’s worth noting that in previous cycles bitcoin dominance slumped all the way down to 39%, indicating that the altcoin resurgence still has some way to go.
  • However, as liquidity flowed into BTC, several altcoins fell to record lows against bitcoin, leading to a number being «oversold» on technical indicators like relative strength index (RSI).

Derivatives Positioning

  • The total open interest across all perpetual instruments increased overnight to $114 billion, data from Laevitas show.
  • A liquidations heatmap for the BTC-USDT pair on Binance shows that bitcoin is trading between two significant liquidation clusters. Above the current price, a $90 million cluster of liquidations sits around the $112,200 mark. To the downside, the largest cluster is valued at $76.6 million, located around $110,000.
  • According to Deribit options data, the 24-hour BTC put-call volume is 26.4K contracts, with calls accounting for 51.6% of the total. The contract with the highest volume is the $108K strike price put expiring Sept. 26.
  • That’s followed by the call at a strike price of $114K expiring on the same day.
  • The funding rate heatmap on Coinglass remains positive for most assets, indicating a general bullish sentiment. The one exception is TRX, which has a negative funding rate, reflecting a -10.2% APR.

Market Movements

  • BTC is down 0.1% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $111,323.58 (24hrs: +0.92%)
  • ETH is up 0.82% at $4,348.94 (24hrs: -0.89%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 0.59% at 4,046.65(24hrs: +1.01%)
  • It’s worth noting that in previous cycles bitcoin dominance slumped all the way down to 39%, indicating that the altcoin resurgence still has some way to go.

Derivatives Positioning

CD20, Sept. 3 2025 (CoinDesk)

  • DXY is down 0.15% at 98.25
  • Gold futures are up 0.36% at $3,605.20
  • Silver futures are unchanged at $41.62
  • Nikkei 225 closed down 0.88% at 41,938.89
  • Hang Seng closed down 0.6% at 25,343.43
  • FTSE is up 0.43% at 9,155.78
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.84% at 5,335.46
  • DJIA closed on Tuesday down 0.55% at 45,295.81
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.69% at 6,415.54
  • Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.82% at 21,279.63
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.18% at 28,615.62
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.32% at 2,760.02
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 0.2 bps at 4.279%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.46% at 6,454.75
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.68% at 23,433.75
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 45,352.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 58.59% (+0.04%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.0389 (0.01%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,001 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $54.39
  • Total fees: 4.97 BTC / $548,282
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 133,410 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 31.4 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 8.85%

Technical Analysis

TA Sept 3 2025

  • PUMP has been one of the strongest tokens in recent days, backed by strong fundamentals such as its buyback program and the recently announced Project Ascend — a series of updates that focuses on growing the Pump.fun ecosystem and infrastructure.
  • After breaking the bearish trendline last week, PUMP has reclaimed the 20-day exponential moving average.
  • Bulls are looking for the token to continue this upward trend and flip the $0.004 level, which has proven to be a tough resistance point over the last month.
  • A successful breakout above this price would signal strong bullish momentum.

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Tuesday at $303.56 (-0.32%), +0.74% at $305.80 in pre-market
  • Circle (CRCL): closed at $120.14 (-8.97%), +2.22% at $122.81
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.16 (+2.85%), +0.99% at $24.40
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $62.03 (+5.08%), -0.55% at $61.69
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.06 (+0.5%), +0.31% at $16.11
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.09 (+2.4%), +0.5% at $14.16
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14 (-2.44%), unchanged in pre-market
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.64 (+1.8%), +0.1% at $9.65
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $31.64 (+3.33%), +2.84% at $32.54
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $24.79 (-1.71%), -1.21% at $24.49

Crypto Treasury Companies

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed at $341.62 (+2.16%), +0.66% at $343.88
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $29.37 (-0.91%)
  • SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $16.98 (-4.71%), +0.94% at $17.14
  • Upexi (UPXI): closed at $6.89 (-4.7%), +3.48% at $7.13
  • Mei Pharma (MEIP): closed at $4.85 (-0.21%), +1.44% at $4.92

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $332.8 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $54.55 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$135.3 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $13.4 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~6.56 million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the Day

COD Sept 3 2025

  • While BTC futures volumes on the CME exchange fell 17% to $148 billion in August, the ETH futures volume surged by 48% to $123 billion, an all-time high.
  • The trading volume of SOL futures and XRP futures also surged to records, rising 41% and 51% to $8.60 billion and $7.32 billion, respectively.
  • The figures highlight the heightened institutional interest in altcoins in recent weeks.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

Gold knows this is just the beginning of the global deficit spending crisis.The community governance process for SIMD-0326: Alpenglow is complete. The proposal has passed:The SEC must issue a final decision on Grayscale’s proposed Cardano ETF (GADA) by October 26, 2025.Here are last 10 days volume for $BMNR stock and also today’s top 10 traded stock. I'd personally argue that BTC treasuries are more valuable simply based on the average premium the market is assigning to them.

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BitMEX Co-Founder Arthur Hayes Sees Money Printing Extending Crypto Cycle Well Into 2026

Published

3 часа ago

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14 сентября, 2025

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Arthur Hayes believes the current crypto bull market has further to run, supported by global monetary trends he sees as only in their early stages.

Speaking in a recent interview with Kyle Chassé, a longtime bitcoin and Web3 entrepreneur, the BitMEX co-founder and current Maelstrom CIO argued that governments around the world are far from finished with aggressive monetary expansion.

He pointed to U.S. politics in particular, saying that President Donald Trump’s second term has not yet fully unleashed the spending programs that could arrive from mid-2026 onward. Hayes suggested that if expectations for money printing become extreme, he may consider taking partial profits, but for now he sees investors underestimating the scale of liquidity that could flow into equities and crypto.

Hayes tied his outlook to broader geopolitical shifts, including what he described as the erosion of a unipolar world order. In his view, such periods of instability tend to push policymakers toward fiscal stimulus and central bank easing as tools to keep citizens and markets calm.

He also raised the possibility of strains within Europe — even hinting that a French default could destabilize the euro — as another factor likely to accelerate global printing presses. While he acknowledged these policies eventually risk ending badly, he argued that the blow-off top of the cycle is still ahead.

Turning to bitcoin, Hayes pushed back on concerns that the asset has stalled after reaching a record $124,000 in mid-August.

He contrasted its performance with other asset classes, noting that while U.S. stocks are higher in dollar terms, they have not fully recovered relative to gold since the 2008 financial crisis. Hayes pointed out that real estate also lags when measured against gold, and only a handful of U.S. technology giants have consistently outperformed.

When measured against bitcoin, however, he believes all traditional benchmarks appear weak.

Hayes’ message was that bitcoin’s dominance becomes even clearer once assets are viewed through the lens of currency debasement.

For those frustrated that bitcoin is not posting fresh highs every week, Hayes suggested that expectations are misplaced.

In his telling, investors from the traditional world and those in crypto actually share the same premise: governments and central banks will print money whenever growth falters. Hayes says traditional finance tends to express this view by buying bonds on leverage, while crypto investors hold bitcoin as the “faster horse.”

His conclusion is that patience is essential. Hayes argued that the real edge of holding bitcoin comes from years of compounding outperformance rather than short-term speculation.

Coupled with what he sees as an inevitable wave of money creation through the rest of the decade, he believes the present crypto cycle could stretch well into 2026, far from exhausted.

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Bitcoin Bulls Bet on Fed Rate Cuts To Drive Bond Yields Lower, But There’s a Catch

Published

4 часа ago

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14 сентября, 2025

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On Sept. 17, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark range to 4.00%-4.25%. This move will likely be followed by more easing in the coming months, taking the rates down to around 3% within the next 12 months. The fed funds futures market is discounting a drop in the fed funds rate to less than 3% by the end of 2026.

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are optimistic that the anticipated easing will push Treasury yields sharply lower, thereby encouraging increased risk-taking across both the economy and financial markets. However, the dynamics are more complex and could lead to outcomes that differ significantly from what is anticipated.

While the expected Fed rate cuts could weigh on the two-year Treasury yield, those at the long end of the curve may remain elevated due to fiscal concerns and sticky inflation.

Debt supply

The U.S. government is expected to increase the issuance of Treasury bills (short-term instruments) and eventually longer-duration Treasury notes to finance the Trump administration’s recently approved package of extended tax cuts and increased defense spending. According to the Congressional Budget Office, these policies are likely to add over $2.4 trillion to primary deficits over ten years, while Increasing debt by nearly $3 trillion, or roughly $5 trillion if made permanent.

The increased supply of debt will likely weigh on bond prices and lift yields. (bond prices and yields move in the opposite direction).

«The U.S. Treasury’s eventual move to issue more notes and bonds will pressure longer-term yields higher,» analysts at T. Rowe Price, a global investment management firm, said in a recent report.

Fiscal concerns have already permeated the longer-duration Treasury notes, where investors are demanding higher yields to lend money to the government for 10 years or more, known as the term premium.

The ongoing steepening of the yield curve – which is reflected in the widening spread between 10- and 2-year yields, as well as 30- and 5-year yields and driven primarily by the relative resilience of long-term rates – also signals increasing concerns about fiscal policy.

Kathy Jones, managing director and chief income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, voiced a similar opinion this month, noting that «investors are demanding a higher yield for long-term Treasuries to compensate for the risk of inflation and/or depreciation of the dollar as a consequence of high debt levels.»

These concerns could keep long-term bond yields from falling much, Jones added.

Stubborn inflation

Since the Fed began cutting rates last September, the U.S. labor market has shown signs of significant weakening, bolstering expectations for a quicker pace of Fed rate cuts and a decline in Treasury yields. However, inflation has recently edged higher, complicating that outlook.

When the Fed cut rates in September last year, the year-on-year inflation rate was 2.4%. Last month, it stood at 2.9%, the highest since January’s 3% reading. In other words, inflation has regained momentum, weakening the case for faster Fed rate cuts and a drop in Treasury yields.

Easing priced in?

Yields have already come under pressure, likely reflecting the market’s anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The 10-year yield slipped to 4% last week, hitting the lowest since April 8, according to data source TradingView. The benchmark yield has dropped over 60 basis points from its May high of 4.62%.

According to Padhraic Garvey, CFA, regional head of research, Americas at ING, the drop to 4% is likely an overshoot to the downside.

«We can see the 10yr Treasury yield targeting still lower as an attack on 4% is successful. But that’s likely an overshoot to the downside. Higher inflation prints in the coming months will likely cause long-end yields some issues, requiring a significant adjustment,» Garvey said in a note to clients last week.

Perhaps rate cuts have been priced in, and yields could bounce back hard following the Sept. 17 move, in a repeat of the 2024 pattern. The dollar index suggests the same, as noted early this week.

Lesson from 2024

The 10-year yield fell by over 100 basis points to 3.60% in roughly five months leading up to the September 2024 rate cut.

The central bank delivered additional rate cuts in November and December. Yet, the 10-year yield bottomed out with the September move and rose to 4.57% by year-end, eventually reaching a high of 4.80% in January of this year.

According to ING, the upswing in yields following the easing was driven by economic resilience, sticky inflation, and fiscal concerns.

As of today, while the economy has weakened, inflation and fiscal concerns have worsened as discussed earlier, which means the 2024 pattern could repeat itself.

What it means for BTC?

While BTC rallied from $70,000 to over $100,000 between October and December 2024 despite rising long-term yields, this surge was primarily fueled by optimism around pro-crypto regulatory policies under President Trump and growing corporate adoption of BTC and other tokens.

However, these supporting narratives have significantly weakened looking back a year later. Consequently, the possibility of a potential hardening of yields in the coming months weighing over bitcoin cannot be dismissed.

Read: Here Are the 3 Things That Could Spoil Bitcoin’s Rally Towards $120K

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Are the Record Flows for Traditional and Crypto ETFs Reducing the Power of the Fed?

Published

4 часа ago

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14 сентября, 2025

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Record-breaking flows into exchange-traded funds may be reshaping markets in ways that even the Federal Reserve can’t control.

New data show U.S.-listed ETFs have become a dominant force in capital markets. According to a Friday press release by ETFGI, an independent consultancy, assets invested in U.S. ETFs hit a record $12.19 trillion at the end of August, up from $10.35 trillion at the close of 2024. Bloomberg, which highlighted the surge on Friday, noted the flows are challenging the traditional influence of the Federal Reserve.

Investors poured $120.65 billion into ETFs during August alone, lifting year-to-date inflows to $799 billion — the highest on record. By comparison, the prior full-year record was $643 billion in 2024.

The growth is concentrated among the biggest providers. iShares leads with $3.64 trillion in assets, followed closely by Vanguard with $3.52 trillion and State Street’s SPDR family at $1.68 trillion.

Together, those three firms control nearly three-quarters of the U.S. ETF market. Equity ETFs drew the largest share of August inflows at $42 billion, while fixed-income funds added $32 billion and commodity ETFs nearly $5 billion.

Crypto-linked ETFs are now a meaningful piece of the picture.

Data from SoSoValue show U.S.-listed spot bitcoin and ether ETFs manage more than $120 billion combined, led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust (FBTC). Bitcoin ETFs alone account for more than $100 billion, equal to about 4% of bitcoin’s $2.1 trillion market cap. Ether ETFs add another $20 billion, despite launching only earlier this year.

The surge underscores how ETFs — traditional and crypto alike — have become the vehicle of choice for investors of all sizes. For many, the flows are automatic.

In the U.S., much of the cash comes from retirement accounts known as 401(k)s, where workers put aside part of every paycheck.

A growing share of that money goes into “target-date funds.” These funds automatically shift investments — moving gradually from stocks into bonds — as savers approach retirement age. Model portfolios and robo-advisers follow similar rules, automatically directing flows into ETFs without investors making day-to-day choices.

Bloomberg described this as an “autopilot” effect: every two weeks, millions of workers’ contributions are funneled into index funds that buy the same baskets of stocks, regardless of valuations, headlines or Fed policy. Analysts cited by Bloomberg say this steady demand helps explain why U.S. equity indexes keep climbing even as data on jobs and inflation show signs of strain.

The trend raises questions about the Fed’s influence.

Traditionally, interest rate cuts or hikes sent strong signals that rippled through stocks, bonds, and commodities. Lower rates typically encouraged risk-taking, while higher rates reined it in. But with ETFs absorbing hundreds of billions of dollars on a set schedule, markets may be less sensitive to central bank cues.

That tension is especially clear this month. With the Fed expected to cut rates by a quarter point on Sept. 17, stocks sit near record highs and gold trades above $3,600 an ounce.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, is trading at around $116,000, not far from its all-time high of $124,000 set in mid August.

Stock, bond and crypto ETFs have seen strong inflows, suggesting investors are positioning for easier money — but also reflecting a structural tide of passive allocations.

Supporters told Bloomberg the rise of ETFs has lowered costs and broadened access to markets. But critics quoted in the same report warn that the sheer scale of inflows could amplify volatility if redemptions cluster in a downturn, since ETFs move whole baskets of securities at once.

As Bloomberg put it, this “perpetual machine” of passive investing may be reshaping markets in ways that even the central bank struggles to counter.

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