By Shaurya Malwa (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin (BTC) is sitting around $113,00 having failed to clear $115,000. Not so long ago, when it was setting new highs and euphoria called for a push to $135,000, those numbers would have sounded wild.

Now things are more muted. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a benchmark for the largest digital assets, slipped to 3,996, down 0.46% on the day after opening above 4,012. It touched a low of 3,957, showing how the pullback has been broad, not just a bitcoin story.

For the time being, the market seems to be waiting for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to step up to the podium at Jackson Hole and either calm nerves or shake things up again.

The mood isn’t great. Bitcoin funds have seen over $1 billion pulled in just a few days, according to SoSoValue data.

Ether ETFs, despite seeing net inflows yesterday, have lost another half a billion dollars this week. Call it hedging, call it profit-taking, but money is flowing out. That’s a clear sign institutional traders would rather be safe than sorry heading into Powell’s speech.

Ether, XRP, and Solana (SOL) are all drifting the same way. ETH is stuck near $4,289, down from recent highs as network activity cools. XRP and SOL are each off more than 6% this week. None of them are crashing, but nobody’s buying aggressively either. They’re waiting for bitcoin to make the next move.

Options are pricing in a couple percent swing around the speech — bigger than average, but not panic levels. That swing could be up or down, though the tilt feels negative if Powell sounds less dovish than markets want.

As Pulkit Goyal from Orbit Markets put it, “BTC options are pricing in about a ±2% move around Powell’s speech.”

The stakes are simple. If Powell hints at rate cuts, risk assets — crypto included — will probably breathe easier and bounce. If he remains cautious, the pullback could deepen, potentially pushing bitcoin toward the $108,000 support level.

That’s why everyone’s watching so closely.

Longer term there is still bullish chatter, however. Bitwise says pensions might one day push BTC to $200,000. Maybe. But that’s not today’s story. Today’s story is that bitcoin, like every other risk asset, is hanging on Powell’s words. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • Aug. 22, 2 p.m.: Polygon Labs Marc Boiron will hold a live AMA on X, sharing the company’s future plans and strategy while answering questions from the community.
  • Aug. 27, 3 a.m.: Mantle Network (MNT), an Ethereum layer-2 blockchain, will roll out its mainnet upgrade to version 1.3.1, enabling support for Ethereum’s Prague update and introducing new features for platform users and developers.
• Macro
  • Aug. 22, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases (final) Q2 GDP growth data.
    • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 0.7% vs. Prev. 0.6%
    • GDP Growth Rate YoY Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.8%
  • Aug. 22, 10:00 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivers his keynote speech on the second day of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.
  • Aug. 22, 5 p.m.: The Central Bank of Paraguay announces its monetary policy decision.
    • Policy Rate Prev. 6%
  • Aug. 22, 8 p.m.: Peru’s National Institute of Statistics and Informatics releases Q2 GDP YoY growth data.
    • GDP Growth Rate YoY Prev. 3.9%
  • Aug. 25, 3 p.m.: The Central Bank of Paraguay releases July producer price inflation data.
    • PPI YoY Prev. 4.8%
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Aug. 27: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $1.00
  • Aug. 28: IREN (IREN), post-market, $0.18

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Aavegotchi DAO is voting on a Bitcoin Ben’s Crypto Club Las Vegas sponsorship: a $1,000/month corporate membership (logo on sponsor wall, team access, newsletter feature, one branded meetup/month) or a $5,000, 90-day Graffiti Wall mural with promo. Voting ends Aug. 23.
  • Aug. 22: Polygon (MATIC) to host «ask me anything» with Polygon Labs CEO Marc Boiron at 2 p.m.
  • Aug. 22: Aptos (APT) to host «ask me anything» with Bitso at 2 p.m.
  • Aug. 22: Basic Attention Token (BAT) to host an X spaces event at 17:00 UTC.
• Unlocks
  • Aug. 25: Venom (VENOM) to unlock 2.34% of its circulating supply worth $9.45 million.
  • Aug. 28: Jupiter (JUP) to unlock 1.78% of its circulating supply worth $26.36 million.
  • Sep. 1: Sui (SUI) to release 1.25% of its circulating supply worth $153.1 million.
• Token Launches
  • Aug. 22: XPIN Network (XPIN) to list on Binance Alpha, KuCoin and Gate.
  • Aug. 22: Baby Ethereum (BABYTH) to list on BTSE.
  • Aug. 22: Biconomy (BICO) to list on Bitkub.
  • Aug. 22: Swell (SWELL) to list on Revolut.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through Aug. 31.

• Day 2 of 2: Coinfest Asia 2025 (Bali, Indonesia)
• Aug. 25-26: WebX 2025 (Tokyo)
• Aug. 27: Blockchain Leaders Summit 2025 (Tokyo)
• Aug. 27-28: Stablecoin Conference 2025 (Mexico City)
• Aug. 28-29: Bitcoin Asia 2025 (Hong Kong)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• On-chain investigator Dethective uncovered coordinated wallet activity across YZY and LIBRA launches, showing insiders extracted nearly $23 million through early access and pre-seeded trades.
• One wallet bought $250,000 worth of YZY at $0.20 — when most traders paid above $1 — and flipped it for nearly $1 million profit in eight minutes. Funds were then funneled to a “treasury wallet” already tied to LIBRA gains.
• That same wallet benefited from LIBRA’s launch six months earlier, where two addresses used similar tactics to snipe tokens. One made $9 million, another $11.5 million, with both dumping quickly before public buyers could react.
• These wallets appeared only during the YZY and LIBRA launches and invested huge sums instantly, behavior Dethective said was impossible without insider information.
• While speculation has linked the wallets to LIBRA’s founder Hayden Davis, no proof has surfaced. Still, analysts argue “celebrity coins” marketed to fans may in reality be insider extraction schemes, enriching a few at the cost of retail.
• Research by Defioasis found more than 60% of YZY traders lost money. Out of 56,050 wallets trading YZY, most “only buying” wallets may have been fake, while “only selling” wallets were insiders exiting.
• Among those who both bought and sold, 38% profited, but nearly all gains were under $500. Just 406 wallets made more than $10,000, and five cleared over $1 million — mostly linked to insiders. One trader lost over $1 million in a single day.
• Ripple and SBI Holdings announced plans to introduce the RLUSD stablecoin in Japan by Q1 2026, aiming to leverage new digital asset regulations.
• SBI VC Trade, a licensed electronic payment instruments exchange service provider, will distribute RLUSD, according to a memorandum of understanding signed Friday.
• RLUSD, introduced in December 2024, is fully backed by U.S. dollar deposits, short-term Treasuries and cash equivalents, with monthly attestations from a third-party auditor. Ripple says this gives it regulatory clarity and institutional-grade compliance compared to peers.
• SBI CEO Tomohiko Kondo said RLUSD will “expand the option of stablecoins in the Japanese market” and strengthen trust in digital finance. Ripple executives framed it as a bridge between traditional and decentralized finance.
• The initiative is indicative of Ripple and SBI’s deepening partnership in Asia and comes just as Japan approved its first yen-denominated stablecoin earlier this week, signaling a rapidly opening market.

Derivatives Positioning

• Global futures open interest (OI) in BTC and ETH has increased by 1% in the past 24 hours, suggesting capital is flowing in as prices drop. At least some of these inflows could be bearish bets initiated as hedges against potential hawkish comments from Powell later today.
• SOL, DOGE, LINK, XRP and ADA all registered a decline in open interest, a sign of capital outflows. OI increased significantly in smaller, less-followed coins such as MAT, ULTIMA and LUMIA.
• However, speculative activity has cooled significantly, with volumes across major tokens, excluding BTC, dropping by 20% or more. It appears traders are holding back, waiting for Powell before making their next moves.
• On the CME, OI in standard ether futures remains elevated near 2 million ETH while BTC’s tally remains well below July’s lows, signaling a lack of investor interest.
• Options on CME, however, are heating up, with ETH open interest rising to $1 billion, the highest this year. BTC’s option OI has jumped to $4.44 billion, the most since May.
• BTC options listed on Deribit are suggesting a 2% price swing in the next 24 hours, indicating a slightly above-average volatility around the Jackson Hole event. Volatility has averaged 1.18% over the past 30 days.
• BTC puts continue to trade at a premium to calls, suggesting downside fears. The same is true for ETFs tied to the Nasdaq.
• Block flows on the OTC network Paradigm were mixed, featuring outright calls, put spreads and risk reversal strategies.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 0.56% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $113,062.98 (24hrs: -0.47%)
• ETH is up 2.07% at $4,329.01 (24hrs: +0.69%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 0.66% at 3,999.94 (24hrs: -0.6%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 3 bps at 2.96%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0197% (21.5715% annualized) on KuCoin

• DXY is up 0.11% at 98.73
• Gold futures are down 0.32% at $3,370.90
• Silver futures are down 0.26% at $37.98
• Nikkei 225 closed unchanged at 42,633.29
• Hang Seng closed up 0.93% at 25,339.14
• FTSE is unchanged at 9,312.56
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.28% at 5,477.63
• DJIA closed on Thursday down 0.34% at 44,785.50
• S&P 500 closed down 0.4% at 6,370.17
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.34% at 21,100.31
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.63% at 28,055.43
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.47% at 2,661.02
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 0.5 bps at 4.337%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.22% at 6,402.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.12% at 23,248.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.29% at 44,986.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.4% (-0.26%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03826 (1.87%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 933 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $55.19
• Total fees: 3.09 BTC / $349,943
• CME Futures Open Interest: 145,250 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 33.9 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 9.56%

Technical Analysis

• Ether’s price (left) remains locked in an ascending channel, characterizing the bull run from April lows. Market leader bitcoin, in contrast, has dived out of the bullish channel, indicating a resurgence of sellers.
• This divergent price setup means scope for bigger gains in ETH in case Jerome Powell take a dovish tone at Jackson Hole.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $337.58 (-1.97%), +0.53% at $339.38 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $300.28 (-1.35%), +0.43% at $301.58
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $131.8 (-4.36%), +1.31% at $133.53
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $23.89 (-2.53%), +0.71% at $24.06
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $69.80 (+10.99%), -2.11% at $68.33
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.51 (+0.39%), +0.39% at $15.57
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.27 (-2%), +0.49% at $12.33
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $13.79 (-2.06%), unchanged in pre-market
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.33 (-1.69%), +0.32% at $0.32%
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $26.88 (-1.43%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $30.1 (-3.56%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $26.15 (+2.75%)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $18.04 (-7.34%), $3.05% at $18.59

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$194.4 million
• Cumulative net flows: $53.8 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $287.6 million
• Cumulative net flows: $12.11 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.2 million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the Day

• The chart shows BTC’s historical monthly performance since 2010, highlighting September as a seasonally bearish period with an average loss of 4.68%.
• This calls for bulls to remain vigilant in the aftermath of Powell’s speech later today.

While You Were Sleeping

• Bitcoin’s Jackson Hole Test: How Hard Could Powell’s Address Hit BTC Prices? (CoinDesk): Options data suggest the Fed chair’s speech will spark only modest bitcoin swings of about 2%, with demand for put options likely to increase if his tone dashes rate-cut hopes.
• Peter Thiel Leads Pack of Investors Piling Into Ether (The Wall Street Journal): Thiel’s Founders Fund owns 7.5% of ETHZilla and 9.1% of Bitmine Immersion Technologies, two firms stockpiling ether on the bet that it will benefit from the growing adoption of Ethereum in finance.
• EU Speeds Up Plans for Digital Euro After U.S. Stablecoin Law (Financial Times): The GENIUS Act jolted Brussels into fast-tracking a digital euro, with officials considering a public rather than private blockchain to curb the dominance of dollar-backed stablecoins.
• Ripple, SBI Plan RLUSD Stablecoin Distribution in Japan by 2026 (CoinDesk): According to a memorandum of understanding, SBI VC Trade, a licensed payments provider and subsidiary of SBI Holdings, will distribute the stablecoin in Japan, aiming for the first quarter of 2026.
• Japan’s SBI Holdings Joins Tokenized Stock Push With Startale Joint Venture (CoinDesk): The financial conglomerate is working with Singapore-based crypto infrastructure firm Startale Group, which helped Sony develop layer-2 blockchain Soneium, on a 24/7 platform for tokenized stocks and other financial assets.
• Japanese 30-Year Bond Yields Hit Record High on Inflation Woes (Bloomberg): The yield hit 3.21% as stubborn inflation and fiscal risks spurred selling, with foreign buying of JGBs weakening in July. However, some life insurers now view super-long bonds as attractive.

In the Ether