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ETF Outflows Signal Risk Aversion Before FOMC, Powell Speech: Crypto Daybook Americas

Published

4 недели ago

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) have recovered slightly from late Tuesday lows, though both CoinDesk 20 and CoinDesk 80 indexes are lower over 24 hours, signaling a broad market weakness. Among the top 100 coins, only OKB and LINK have gained more than 3%.

The analyst community remains squarely focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole later this week.

«The recent sell‑off suggests that short‑term positioning remains fragile,» Singapore-based QCP Capital said. «Risk assets may be vulnerable to further swings if Powell strikes a hawkish tone or if upcoming labor or inflation data surprise to the upside.»

Powell’s speech will come after publication of the minutes of the Fed’s July meeting, due later today.

The latest decline in BTC has been marked by profit-taking by short-term holders, or wallets with a history of owning coins for less than 155 days, according to CryptoQuant. The last time this occurred, in January, the bitcoin rally lost momentum near $110,000, eventually leading to a deep sell-off in March and early April.

Here’s another sign of investor disquiet: Spot bitcoin and ether ETFs registered almost $1 billion in total net outflows on Tuesday.

«At this stage, the market broadly expects cuts, so much of that is already priced in,» Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen, said in an email, referring to U.S. interest rates. «If Powell delivers exactly what’s anticipated, crypto could see sideways-to-slightly-bearish action, a classic ‘sell the news’ dynamic.»

Sondergaard said markets will likely rally if Powell signals deeper or faster-than-expected rate cuts. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto
    • Aug. 20, 1 p.m.: Hedera (HBAR) plans to upgrade its mainnet to version 0.64. The process is expected to last around 40 minutes, during which network services may experience temporary interruptions.
    • Aug. 20: Qubic (QUBIC), the fastest blockchain ever recorded, will undergo its first yearly halving event as part of a controlled emission model. Although gross emissions remain fixed at one trillion QUBIC tokens per week, the adaptive burn rate will increase substantially — burning some 28.75 trillion tokens and reducing net effective emissions to about 21.25 trillion tokens.
    • Aug. 21: Layer-1 blockchain Viction (VIC), formerly known as TomoChain, finalizes the Atlas hard fork upgrade on mainnet. The update launched on July 23. All node operators must complete the upgrade by Aug. 21 to ensure full network functionality.
  • Macro
    • Aug. 20, 11 a.m.: Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller will speak on “Payments” at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025. Watch live.
    • Aug. 20, 2 p.m.: The Fed will release the minutes from the July 29-30 FOMC meeting.
    • Aug. 21, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases July producer price inflation data.
      • PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.4%
      • PPI YoY Prev. 1.7%
    • Aug. 21, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (flash) August U.S. data on manufacturing and services activity.
      • Composite PMI Prev. 55.1
      • Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.5 vs. Prev. 49.8
      • Services PMI Est. 54.2 vs. Prev. 55.7
    • Aug. 21-23: The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, which is hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and held annually in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, brings together global central bankers and policymakers to discuss key economic challenges and monetary policy.
    • Aug. 22, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases (final) Q2 GDP growth data.
      • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 0.7% vs. Prev. 0.6%
      • GDP Growth Rate YoY Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.8%
    • Aug. 22, 10:00 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivers his keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.
    • Aug. 22, 5 p.m.: The Central Bank of Paraguay announces its monetary policy decision.
      • Policy Rate Prev. 6%
    • Aug. 22, 8 p.m.: Peru’s National Institute of Statistics and Informatics releases Q2 GDP YoY growth data.
      • GDP Growth Rate YoY Prev. 3.9%
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • Aug. 25: Windtree Therapeutics (WINT), pre-market, N/A
    • Aug. 27: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $1.00

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
  • Unlocks
    • Aug. 20: LayerZero (ZRO) to unlock 8.53% of its circulating supply worth $57.59 million.
    • Aug. 20: Kaito (KAITO) to unlock 8.82% of its circulating supply worth $27.55 million.
  • Token Launches
    • Aug. 20: DecentralGPT (DGC) to list on Binance Alpha and Bitget.
    • Aug. 20: Mog Coin (MOG) to list on EdgeX.
    • Aug. 20: MYX Finance (MYX) to list on Coinone with MYX/KRW pair.
    • Aug. 20: Palladium Network (PLLD) to list on Poloniex with PLLD/USDT pair.
    • Aug. 20: Sapien (SAPIEN) to list on Binance Alpha.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through Aug. 31.

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • Solana token issuance platform Pump.fun has crossed $800.6 million in lifetime revenue, Dune data shows, mostly from its 1% swap fee, with daily intake averaging over $1 million. This puts it among a small list of platforms earning high revenues in the crypto space.
  • Pump originally collected fees when tokens “graduated” to Raydium, but now earns from its in-house DEX, PumpSwap. The model has proven sticky despite competition.
  • LetsBonk briefly overtook Pump in graduated tokens last month, driven by its Raydium LaunchLab integration and Bonk community push, but lost ground as top memecoin deployers migrated back to Pump.
  • Pump’s token ICO last month raised $600 million in 12 minutes, with the platform now running buybacks above market price to stabilize trading. This is indicative of how the launchpad has become an asset in itself.
  • In contrast, LetsBonk revenue has collapsed to under $30,000 a day from around $1 million earlier this month, showing the volatility of memecoin platforms competing for flow.
  • New entrant Token Mill is trying to stand out with a “King of the Mill” mechanism in which fees are used to buy and burn the highest-volume token every 30 minutes. The aim is to gamify volatility as a growth loop.
  • Solana, meanwhile, lost its crown as the dominant memecoin chain to Coinbase’s Base, which has tied token issuance into decentralized social media via Zora. On Monday, Base hosted nearly 58,000 new memecoins versus 33,000 on Solana.

Derivatives Positioning

  • Leveraged crypto futures bets worth $448 million have been liquidated in the past 24 hours. Most were longs, which means significant bullish leverage has been cleared from the market.
  • Open interest in BTC, DOGE and XRP has declined, indicating that the price drop has yet to trigger a surge in new bearish bets.
  • Meanwhile, LINK, HYPE and SUI have seen increases in open interest, while OI has held flat in ETH, according to data source Coinglass.
  • Perpetual funding rates for most major cryptocurrencies continue to remain mildly positive, indicating a bias towards long positions. The opposite is the case for ADA and XMR.
  • Solana futures open interest on CME remains elevated near record highs above 4.6 million SOL, with the annualized three-month premium rising to 16% from 12% last week. The uptick indicates bullish capital inflows.
  • BTC open interest is beginning to recover, now at 145.76K BTC, the highest since late July. Premium remains below 10%. In ETH’s case, the premium again faded the spike above 10%, with open interest approaching the 2 million ETH mark.
  • On Deribit, short-dated (one-week) and near-dated (coming months) BTC and ETH puts continue to trade at a premium to calls, reflecting concerns about downside risks.
  • Flows over the OTC network Paradigm featured increased activity in put options tied to bitcoin and ether, with activity across outrights, spreads, and calendar spread strategies.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 0.4% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $113,757.49 (24hrs: -1.53%)
  • ETH is up 1.55% at $4,217.10 (24hrs: -1.62%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 1.06% at 3,983.85 (24hrs: -2.26%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps at 2.94%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0022% (2.4276% annualized) on Binance

CD20 (Aug. 20 2025) (CoinDesk)

  • DXY is unchanged at 98.29
  • Gold futures are up 0.29% at $3,368.50
  • Silver futures are down 0.70% at $37.07
  • Nikkei 225 closed down 1.51% at 42,888.55
  • Hang Seng closed up 0.17% at 25,165.94
  • FTSE is up 0.17% at 9,204.66
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,483.55
  • DJIA closed on Tuesday unchanged at 44,922.27
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.59% at 6,411.37
  • Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.46% at 21,314.95
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.35% at 27,823.88
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed down 2.02% at 2,637.60
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 0.7 bps at 4.295%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.14% at 6,423.50
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.18% at 23,427.50
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.18% at 44,919.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 59.8% (+0.48%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.0371 (2.74%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 962 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $55.71
  • Total fees: 3.27 BTC / $374,274
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 145,760 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 34.2 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 9.68%

Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average. (TradingView)

  • While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes recently rallied above their January highs, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has yet to do so.
  • The daily chart shows the DJIA bulls are struggling to establish a foothold above the trendline connecting December-February highs.
  • As a barometer of risk appetite, a turn lower could add to the bearish momentum in cryptocurrencies.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $336.57 (-7.43%), +7.91% at $363.19 in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $302.07 (-5.82%), +5.93% at $319.98
  • Circle (CRCL): closed at $135.23 (-4.49%), +5.98% at $143.31
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.09 (-10.06%), +10.23% at $26.56
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $59.51 (-6.09%), +3.68% at $61.70
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.17 (-5.72%), +6.46% at $16.15
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.96 (-2.92%), +3.09% at $12.33
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.35 (-1.24%), +0.63% at $14.44
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.36 (-4.88%), +5.13% at $9.84
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $26.6 (-5.97%), +5.30% at $28.01
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $31.89 (-5.55%), +5.07% at $33.50
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $27.1 (+1.96%), -1.37% at $26.73
  • SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $18.38 (-8.65%), +6.42% at $19.56

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$523.3 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $54.31 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.3 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$422.2 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $12.07 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~6.35 million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the Day

Open interest in ETH CME options. (Velo)

  • Open interest, or the number of active contracts, in CME-listed ether options has increased to 226.9K ETH, the most since September.
  • The gain shows growing institutional demand for hedging instruments tied to Ethereum’s native token.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

(Greeny/X)(Tom Lee Tracker/X)(Udi Wertheimer/X)(Altcoin Sherpa/X)(Nate Geraci/X)(sassal.eth/X)

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Asia Morning Briefing: Native Markets Wins Right to Issue USDH After Validator Vote

Published

4 часа ago

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15 сентября, 2025

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Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Hyperliquid’s validator community has chosen Native Markets to issue USDH, ending a weeklong contest that drew proposals from Paxos, Frax, Sky (ex-MakerDAO), Agora, and others.

Native Markets, co-founded by former Uniswap Labs president MC Lader, researcher Anish Agnihotri, and early Hyperliquid backer Max Fiege, said it will begin rolling out USDH “within days,” according to a post by Fiege on X.

According to onchain trackers, Native Markets’ proposal took approximately 70% of validators’ votes, while Paxos took 20%, and Ethena came in at 3.2%.

The staged launch starts with capped mints and redemptions, followed by a USDH/USDC spot pair before caps are lifted.

USDH is designed to challenge Circle’s USDC, which currently dominates Hyperliquid with nearly $6 billion in deposits, or about 7.5% of its supply. USDC and other stablecoins will remain supported if they meet liquidity and HYPE staking requirements.

Most rival bidders had promised to channel stablecoin yields back to the ecosystem with Paxos via HYPE buybacks, Frax through direct user yield, and Sky with a 4.85% savings rate plus a $25 million “Genesis Star” project.

Native Markets’ pitch instead stressed credibility, trading experience, and validator alignment.

Market Movement

BTC: BTC has recently reclaimed the $115,000 level, helped by inflows into ETFs, easing U.S. inflation data, and growing expectations for interest rate cuts. Also, technical momentum is picking up, though resistance sits around $116,000, according to CoinDesk’s market insights bot.

ETH: ETH is trading above $4600. The price is being buoyed by strong ETF inflows.

Gold: Gold continues to trade near record highs as traders eye dollar weakness on expected Fed rate cuts.

Elsewhere in Crypto:

  • Pakistan’s crypto regulator invites crypto firms to get licensed, serve 40 million local users (The Block)
  • Inside the IRS’s Expanding Surveillance of Crypto Investors (Decrypt)
  • Massachusetts State Attorney General Alleges Kalshi Violating Sports Gambling Laws (CoinDesk)
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BitMEX Co-Founder Arthur Hayes Sees Money Printing Extending Crypto Cycle Well Into 2026

Published

11 часов ago

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14 сентября, 2025

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Arthur Hayes believes the current crypto bull market has further to run, supported by global monetary trends he sees as only in their early stages.

Speaking in a recent interview with Kyle Chassé, a longtime bitcoin and Web3 entrepreneur, the BitMEX co-founder and current Maelstrom CIO argued that governments around the world are far from finished with aggressive monetary expansion.

He pointed to U.S. politics in particular, saying that President Donald Trump’s second term has not yet fully unleashed the spending programs that could arrive from mid-2026 onward. Hayes suggested that if expectations for money printing become extreme, he may consider taking partial profits, but for now he sees investors underestimating the scale of liquidity that could flow into equities and crypto.

Hayes tied his outlook to broader geopolitical shifts, including what he described as the erosion of a unipolar world order. In his view, such periods of instability tend to push policymakers toward fiscal stimulus and central bank easing as tools to keep citizens and markets calm.

He also raised the possibility of strains within Europe — even hinting that a French default could destabilize the euro — as another factor likely to accelerate global printing presses. While he acknowledged these policies eventually risk ending badly, he argued that the blow-off top of the cycle is still ahead.

Turning to bitcoin, Hayes pushed back on concerns that the asset has stalled after reaching a record $124,000 in mid-August.

He contrasted its performance with other asset classes, noting that while U.S. stocks are higher in dollar terms, they have not fully recovered relative to gold since the 2008 financial crisis. Hayes pointed out that real estate also lags when measured against gold, and only a handful of U.S. technology giants have consistently outperformed.

When measured against bitcoin, however, he believes all traditional benchmarks appear weak.

Hayes’ message was that bitcoin’s dominance becomes even clearer once assets are viewed through the lens of currency debasement.

For those frustrated that bitcoin is not posting fresh highs every week, Hayes suggested that expectations are misplaced.

In his telling, investors from the traditional world and those in crypto actually share the same premise: governments and central banks will print money whenever growth falters. Hayes says traditional finance tends to express this view by buying bonds on leverage, while crypto investors hold bitcoin as the “faster horse.”

His conclusion is that patience is essential. Hayes argued that the real edge of holding bitcoin comes from years of compounding outperformance rather than short-term speculation.

Coupled with what he sees as an inevitable wave of money creation through the rest of the decade, he believes the present crypto cycle could stretch well into 2026, far from exhausted.

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Bitcoin Bulls Bet on Fed Rate Cuts To Drive Bond Yields Lower, But There’s a Catch

Published

12 часов ago

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14 сентября, 2025

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On Sept. 17, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark range to 4.00%-4.25%. This move will likely be followed by more easing in the coming months, taking the rates down to around 3% within the next 12 months. The fed funds futures market is discounting a drop in the fed funds rate to less than 3% by the end of 2026.

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are optimistic that the anticipated easing will push Treasury yields sharply lower, thereby encouraging increased risk-taking across both the economy and financial markets. However, the dynamics are more complex and could lead to outcomes that differ significantly from what is anticipated.

While the expected Fed rate cuts could weigh on the two-year Treasury yield, those at the long end of the curve may remain elevated due to fiscal concerns and sticky inflation.

Debt supply

The U.S. government is expected to increase the issuance of Treasury bills (short-term instruments) and eventually longer-duration Treasury notes to finance the Trump administration’s recently approved package of extended tax cuts and increased defense spending. According to the Congressional Budget Office, these policies are likely to add over $2.4 trillion to primary deficits over ten years, while Increasing debt by nearly $3 trillion, or roughly $5 trillion if made permanent.

The increased supply of debt will likely weigh on bond prices and lift yields. (bond prices and yields move in the opposite direction).

«The U.S. Treasury’s eventual move to issue more notes and bonds will pressure longer-term yields higher,» analysts at T. Rowe Price, a global investment management firm, said in a recent report.

Fiscal concerns have already permeated the longer-duration Treasury notes, where investors are demanding higher yields to lend money to the government for 10 years or more, known as the term premium.

The ongoing steepening of the yield curve – which is reflected in the widening spread between 10- and 2-year yields, as well as 30- and 5-year yields and driven primarily by the relative resilience of long-term rates – also signals increasing concerns about fiscal policy.

Kathy Jones, managing director and chief income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, voiced a similar opinion this month, noting that «investors are demanding a higher yield for long-term Treasuries to compensate for the risk of inflation and/or depreciation of the dollar as a consequence of high debt levels.»

These concerns could keep long-term bond yields from falling much, Jones added.

Stubborn inflation

Since the Fed began cutting rates last September, the U.S. labor market has shown signs of significant weakening, bolstering expectations for a quicker pace of Fed rate cuts and a decline in Treasury yields. However, inflation has recently edged higher, complicating that outlook.

When the Fed cut rates in September last year, the year-on-year inflation rate was 2.4%. Last month, it stood at 2.9%, the highest since January’s 3% reading. In other words, inflation has regained momentum, weakening the case for faster Fed rate cuts and a drop in Treasury yields.

Easing priced in?

Yields have already come under pressure, likely reflecting the market’s anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The 10-year yield slipped to 4% last week, hitting the lowest since April 8, according to data source TradingView. The benchmark yield has dropped over 60 basis points from its May high of 4.62%.

According to Padhraic Garvey, CFA, regional head of research, Americas at ING, the drop to 4% is likely an overshoot to the downside.

«We can see the 10yr Treasury yield targeting still lower as an attack on 4% is successful. But that’s likely an overshoot to the downside. Higher inflation prints in the coming months will likely cause long-end yields some issues, requiring a significant adjustment,» Garvey said in a note to clients last week.

Perhaps rate cuts have been priced in, and yields could bounce back hard following the Sept. 17 move, in a repeat of the 2024 pattern. The dollar index suggests the same, as noted early this week.

Lesson from 2024

The 10-year yield fell by over 100 basis points to 3.60% in roughly five months leading up to the September 2024 rate cut.

The central bank delivered additional rate cuts in November and December. Yet, the 10-year yield bottomed out with the September move and rose to 4.57% by year-end, eventually reaching a high of 4.80% in January of this year.

According to ING, the upswing in yields following the easing was driven by economic resilience, sticky inflation, and fiscal concerns.

As of today, while the economy has weakened, inflation and fiscal concerns have worsened as discussed earlier, which means the 2024 pattern could repeat itself.

What it means for BTC?

While BTC rallied from $70,000 to over $100,000 between October and December 2024 despite rising long-term yields, this surge was primarily fueled by optimism around pro-crypto regulatory policies under President Trump and growing corporate adoption of BTC and other tokens.

However, these supporting narratives have significantly weakened looking back a year later. Consequently, the possibility of a potential hardening of yields in the coming months weighing over bitcoin cannot be dismissed.

Read: Here Are the 3 Things That Could Spoil Bitcoin’s Rally Towards $120K

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