By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin (BTC) remains under pressure after losing the bullish trendline from April lows, with downside largely contained around $114,600 for now.

Even so, it looks as though fresh demand is entering the market. Glassnode’s Supply by Investor Behavior metric shows that in the past five days, supply held by first time buyers increased by 1.0% to 4.93 million BTC.

Meanwhile, supply controlled by so-called conviction buyers, i.e. investors with strong holding intent, has grown 10% to 1.03 million BTC. Nevertheless, the latest surge appears subdued compared with July, a sign that the latest price dip may be too shallow for bargain hunters.

Loss Sellers, those getting rid of the cryptocurrency at less than they paid, spiked 37.8% to 87,000 BTC, signaling increased short-term selling pressure. These are mostly short-term holders, according to analytics firm CryptoQuant.

If the market quickly absorbs these sales, it could mark a reset similar to past events that preceded strong rebounds. If absorption falters, it could signal a deeper momentum breakdown, CryptoQuant said on X.

On the ether front, prices seem to be retracing to test a crucial breakout point near $4,100.

«Ethereum rolled back to $4,200, losing more than 12% from its peak. The second-largest coin by capitalization is seriously aiming to test the strength of the former resistance area near $4,100, which has been holding back price growth since March 2024,» said Alex Kuptsikevich, the chief market analyst at FxPro. «The ability to stay above this level will indicate a change in the market regime for this cryptocurrency, as the abundant capital inflows also suggest.»

Looking more broadly, the crypto market alongside Nasdaq market breadth points to interim weakness within an ongoing bull run. According to some observers, bitcoin, ether and solana have all recently entered oversold territory on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggesting that while caution is warranted, these dips may present opportunities. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • Aug. 20, 1 p.m.: Hedera (HBAR) plans to upgrade its mainnet to version 0.64. The process is expected to last around 40 minutes, during which network services may experience temporary interruptions.
  • Aug. 20: Qubic (QUBIC), the fastest blockchain ever recorded, will undergo its first yearly halving event as part of a controlled emission model. Although gross emissions remain fixed at one trillion QUBIC tokens per week, the adaptive burn rate will increase substantially — burning some 28.75 trillion tokens and reducing net effective emissions to about 21.25 trillion tokens.
  • Aug. 21: Layer-1 blockchain Viction (VIC), formerly known as TomoChain, finalizes the Atlas hard fork upgrade on mainnet. The update launched on July 23. All node operators must complete the upgrade by Aug. 21 to ensure full network functionality.
• Macro
  • Aug. 19, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases July consumer price inflation data.
    • Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.4% vs. Prev. 0.1%
    • Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 2.7%
    • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.1%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 1.7% vs. Prev. 1.9%
  • Aug. 19, 2:10 p.m.: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will speak on “Fostering New Technology in the Banking System” at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025. Watch live.
  • Aug. 19, 4 p.m.: The Central Bank of Uruguay announces its monetary policy decision.
    • Monetary Policy Rate Prev. 9%
  • Aug. 20, 11 a.m.: Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller will speak on “Payments” at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025. Watch live.
  • Aug. 20, 2 p.m.: The Fed will release the minutes from the July 29-30 FOMC meeting.
  • Aug. 21, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases July producer price inflation data.
    • PPI MoM Prev. 0.4%
    • PPI YoY Prev. 1.7%
  • Aug. 21, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (flash) August U.S. data on manufacturing and services activity.
    • Composite PMI Prev. 55.1
    • Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.5 vs. Prev. 49.8
    • Services PMI Est. 53.7 vs. Prev. 55.7
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Aug. 25: Windtree Therapeutics (WINT), pre-market, N/A

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Aavegotchi DAO is voting on a Bitcoin Ben’s Crypto Club Las Vegas sponsorship: a $1,000/month corporate membership (logo on sponsor wall, team access, newsletter feature, one branded meetup/month) or a $5,000, 90-day Graffiti Wall mural with promo. Voting ends Aug. 23.
  • Aug. 19: Sui (SUI) to hold ecosystem call at 15:00 UTC.
  • Aug 19: Metis (METIS) to host ask me anything on Telegram with CCO Daniel Kwak at 16:00 UTC.
• Unlocks
  • Aug. 20: LayerZero (ZRO) to unlock 8.53% of its circulating supply worth $57.59 million.
  • Aug. 20: Kaito (KAITO) to unlock 8.82% of its circulating supply worth $27.55 million.
• Token Launches
  • Aug. 19: SOON (SOON) to list on CoinTR.
  • Aug. 19: Useless Coin (USELESS) to list on BTSE.
  • Aug. 19: Destra Network (DSYNC) to list on LBank.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through Aug. 31.

• Aug. 17-21: Crypto 2025 (Santa Barbara, California)
• Aug. 18-21: Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025 (Jackson Hole)
• Aug. 21-22: Coinfest Asia 2025 (Bali, Indonesia)
• Aug. 25-26: WebX 2025 (Tokyo)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• Starknet’s v0.14.0 upgrade introduces a multi-sequencer setup with Tendermint consensus, the first step toward decentralizing sequencing and proving. Multiple sequencers will now participate in block generation, aiming to boost resilience and throughput.
• The release includes a pre-confirmation system for near-instant transaction updates and an EIP-1559-inspired fee model with a minimum charge of 3 gFRI. A brief 15-minute mainnet outage is expected during rollout.
• Starknet plans to expand sequencer and prover decentralization in later versions, with the long-term goal of a fully distributed scaling system.
• The shift may also have implications for Starknet’s STRK token, which is used for transaction fees and staking. With the introduction of a base fee burn and a more competitive fee market, traders can expect long-term supply compression similar to Ethereum’s post-EIP-1559 dynamics, which has burned over 5 million ETH to date.
• Solana’s DeFi TVL rose 30.4% in the second quarter to $8.6 billion, driven mainly by Kamino’s $2 billion contribution, cementing its spot as the second-largest network by DeFi activity, Messari data shows.
• Spot DEX volumes fell 45% to $2.5 billion as memecoin hype faded, while stablecoin supply dropped 17% to $10.3 billion. USDC’s Solana market share slid to 69% with a $7.2 billion cap, while USDT held steady near $2.3 billion.
• Liquid staking participation grew to 12.2% of SOL’s supply, lifting staked value to $60 billion and enhancing DeFi yields. Solana’s circulating market cap climbed 30% to $82.8 billion, ranking sixth among all tokens.

Derivatives Positioning

• BTC’s retest of $115,000 overnight saw cumulative open interest in USDT perpetual futures listed on Deribit, Binance, OKX, Bybit and Hyperliquid drop 222,000 BTC to 214,000 BTC, the lowest in over a week.
• The capital outflow suggests the price drop was driven by the unwinding of long positions rather than the initiation of new short positions.
• The opposite was the case with ETH. Open interest rose to above 5 million ETH, suggesting an influx of new shorts.
• Open interest in the top 10 tokens, excluding ETH and BNB, fell over the past 24 hours.
• Mantle Network’s MNT token has gained nearly 14% in 24 hours. However, funding rates have flipped bearish in the last few hours alongside an uptick in open interest. Those holding long positions are now shorting futures to hedge their bullish exposure.
• On the CME, positioning in BTC standard futures sized at 5 BTC remains light with annualized three-month basis locked below 10%. ETH’s open interest has risen to 1.83 million, reversing the majority of a decline that took it to 1.51 million ETH, indicating renewed capital inflows. The basis, however, dropped to 8.90% from 11%.
• Open interest in ETH CME options surpassed 200,000 ETH for the first time since September, indicating increased investor interest in hedging instruments.
• On Deribit, BTC puts out to November expiry trade at a premium to calls, reflecting concerns the price will drop. Subsequent expiries show neutral-to-bullish sentiment. In ETH’s case, the bearish sentiment is seen out to September expiries.
• Block flows via OTC network Paradigm featured long positions in the BTC $120K put expiring Aug. 22 and the ETH $4K put expiring Aug. 29.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 1.84% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $115,205.89 (24hrs: -2.73%)
• ETH is down 2.75% at $4,305.90 (24hrs: -5.77%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 1.93% at 4,057.54 (24hrs: -4.56%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 8 bps at 2.85%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0018% (1.9392% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.14% at 97.99
• Gold futures are up 0.43% at $3,397.00
• Silver futures are up 0.65% at $38.22
• Nikkei 225 closed up 0.77% at 43,714.31
• Hang Seng closed down 0.37% at 25,176.85
• FTSE is unchanged at 9,132.66
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.46% at 5,423.34
• DJIA closed on Monday unchanged at 44,946.12
• S&P 500 closed down 0.29% at 6,449.80
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.4% at 21,622.98
• S&P/TSX Composite closed unchanged at 27,905.49
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.23% at 2,686.10
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 3.3 bps at 4.295%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.19% at 6,459.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.2% at 23,756.25
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.11% at 44,992.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.7% (+0.48%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03698 (-2.92%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 957 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $56.04
• Total fees: 2.54 BTC / $299,765
• CME Futures Open Interest: 141,755 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 34.3 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 9.74%

Technical Analysis

• The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond is on the verge of hitting 17-year highs above 1.6%.
• Such a move could trigger volatility in bond markets across the developed world, potentially influencing risk sentiment in both stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $363.6 (-0.74%), -0.72% at $361 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $320.73 (+1%), -0.53% at $319.03
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $141.58 (-5.15%), +1.12% at $143.17
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $26.79 (+2.68%), -1.08% at $26.50
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $63.37 (-8.87%), -2.15% at $62.01
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.09 (+2.68%), -0.75% at $15.97
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.32 (+8.74%), -0.16% at $12.30
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.53 (+2.83%), +0.69% at $14.63
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.84 (+0.92%), -0.51% at $9.79
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $28.29 (+5.96%), -2.83% at $27.49
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $33.76 (-0.24%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $26.58 (-7.77%), unchanged in pre-market
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $20.12 (+1.36%), -1.49% at $19.82

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$121.7 million
• Cumulative net flows: $54.83 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.3 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$196.6 million
• Cumulative net flows: $12.49 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.4 million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the Day

• The Coinbase premium measures the percentage difference between the price of bitcoin on the U.S. exchange and the BTC/USD pair on offshore giant Binance.
• The indicator has remained consistently positive since Friday, a sign U.S. investors are injecting more buying pressure into the market than their global counterparts.

While You Were Sleeping

• Blockchain Lender Figure Joins Crypto IPO Rush With Nasdaq Listing Bid Under ‘FIGR’ (CoinDesk): Goldman Sachs, Jefferies and BofA Securities are the lead underwriters. Figure’s S-1 filing shows it had $191 million revenue and $29 million net income in first-half 2025.
• Ripple Extends $75M Credit Facility to Gemini as Exchange Pursues IPO (CoinDesk): Gemini’s S-1 IPO filing revealed a lending deal with Ripple and a widening first-half loss as the company endeavors to become the third crypto exchange to go public in the U.S.
• Is Bitcoin’s Bull Run Losing Steam? Here’s What Crypto and Nasdaq Market Breadth Indicates (CoinDesk): Most top 100 cryptocurrencies and Nasdaq-100 stocks are trading above 200-day averages, showing long-term strength, though half now sit below 50-day levels, pointing to short-term weakness.
• S&P Affirms U.S. Credit Rating as Tariff Revenue Expected to Plug Fiscal Leaks (The Wall Street Journal): S&P held the U.S. at AA+/A-1+ with a stable outlook, citing tariffs offsetting fiscal gaps and warning of a downgrade if deficits aren’t contained or the Fed’s independence is threatened.
• Japan Must Raise Rates, Get Fiscal House in Order, Says Veteran Lawmaker Kono (Reuters): Japan’s former foreign minister said the country’s central bank was too late in raising rates and should now tighten steadily to strengthen the yen and ease inflation’s strain on households and companies.
• China Refiners Grab Russian Oil as Trump Menaces Flows to India (Bloomberg): Chinese refiners have doubled purchases of Russian Urals crude this month as Indian imports slumped ahead of a 50% U.S. tariff, effective Aug. 27, punishing New Delhi for buying Russian oil.

In the Ether