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Volatility Vanishes Across Markets as Traders Brace for Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

A pervasive calm has taken hold of asset classes as traders look forward to Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, scheduled for Aug. 21-23.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) 30-day implied volatility, as measured by Volmex’s BVIV and Deribit’s DVOL index, has declined sharply in recent months, hovering near two-year lows of around 36% last week, according to TradingView data.
Similarly, the CME Gold Volatility Index (GVZ), which estimates the expected 30-day volatility of returns for the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), has more than halved over the past four months, dropping to 15.22%—its lowest level since January.
The MOVE index, which tracks the 30-day implied volatility of Treasury notes, has also declined in recent months, reaching a 3.5-year low of 76%.
Meanwhile, the VIX, widely regarded as Wall Street’s «fear gauge,» fell below 14% last week, down substantially from its early April highs near 45%. A similar vol compression is seen in FX majors such as the EUR/USD.
Rates are ‘still high’
The pronounced slide in volatility across major assets comes as central banks, particularly the Fed, are expected to deliver rate cuts from restrictive territory, rather than amid a crisis.
«Most major economies are not easing from ultra-low or emergency levels like we saw after the financial crisis or during COVID. They’re cutting from restrictive territory, meaning rates are still high enough to slow growth, and in many cases, real rates, adjusted for inflation, are still positive. That’s a big shift from the last easing cycles, and it changes how the next phase plays out,» pseudonymous observer Endgame Macro noted on X, explaining the bull run in all assets, including cryptocurrencies and stock markets.
According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, resuming the easing cycle after an eight-month pause. Investment banking giant JPMorgan expects the benchmark borrowing cost to drop to 3.25%-3.5% by the end of the first quarter of 2026, a 100-basis-point decrease from the current 4.25%.
Per some observers, Powell could lay the groundwork for fresh easing during this Jackson Hole speech.
«The path to rate cuts may be uneven, as we have seen over the last two years, where markets have been eager for rate cuts and sometimes disappointed that the Fed has not delivered them. But we believe the direction of travel for rates is likely to remain lower,» Angelo Kourkafas, a senior global investment strategist at Edward Jones, said in a blog post on Friday.
«With inflation treading water and labour-market strains becoming more pronounced, the balance of risks may soon tip toward action. Chair Powell’s upcoming remarks at Jackson Hole could validate the now-high expectations that, after a seven-month pause, rate cuts will resume in September,» Jones added.
In other words, the decline in volatility across asset classes likely reflects expectations for easy monetary policy and economic stability.
Markets too complacent?
However, contrarians may view it as a sign that markets are too complacent, as President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs threaten to weigh on economic growth, and the latest data points to sticky inflation.
Just take a look at the price levels for most assets, including BTC and gold: They are all at record highs.
Prosper Trading Academy’s Scott Bauer argued last week during an interview with Schwab Network that volatility is too low following the recent round of economic data, with more uncertainty on the horizon.
The argument for market complacency gains credence when viewed against the backdrop of bond markets, where corporate bond spreads hit their lowest since 2007. That prompted analysts at Goldman Sachs to warn clients against complacency and take hedges.
“There are enough sources of downside risks to warrant keeping some hedges on in portfolios,” Goldman strategists led by Lotfi Karoui wrote in a note dated July 31, according to Bloomberg.
“Growth could surprise further to the downside,” dis-inflationary pressures could fade or renewed concerns over Fed independence may fuel a sharp selloff in long-dated yields.
In any case, volatility is mean-reverting, meaning periods of low volatility typically set the stage for a return to more turbulent conditions.
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Bank of England’s Proposed Stablecoin Ownership Limits are Unworkable, Says Crypto Group

The Financial Times (FT) reported on Monday that cryptocurrency groups are urging the Bank of England (BoE) to scrap proposals limiting the amount of stablecoins individuals and businesses can own.
The group warned that the rules would leave the UK with stricter oversight than the U.S. or the European Union (EU).
According to the FT, BoE officials plan to impose caps of 10,000 british pounds to 20,000 british pounds ($13,600–$27,200) for individuals and about 10 million british pounds ($13.6 million) for businesses on all systemic stablecoins, defined as tokens already widely used for payments in the U.K. or expected to be in the future.
The central bank has argued the restrictions are needed to prevent outflows of deposits from banks that could weaken credit provision and financial stability.
The FT cited Sasha Mills, the BoE’s executive director for financial market infrastructure, as saying the limits would mitigate risks from sudden deposit withdrawals and the scaling of new systemic payment systems.
However, industry executives told the FT the plan is unworkable.
Tom Duff Gordon, Coinbase’s vice president of international policy, said “imposing caps on stablecoins is bad for U.K. savers, bad for the City and bad for sterling,” adding that no other major jurisdiction has imposed such limits.
Simon Jennings of the UK cryptoasset business council said enforcement would be nearly impossible without new systems such as digital IDs. Riccardo Tordera-Ricchi of The Payments Association told the FT that limits “make no sense” because there are no caps on cash or bank accounts.
The U.S. enacted the GENIUS Act in July, which establishes a federal framework for payment stablecoins. The law sets licensing, reserve and redemption standards for issuers, with no caps on individual holdings. The European Union has also moved ahead with its Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), which is now fully in effect across the bloc.
Stablecoin-specific rules for asset-referenced and e-money tokens took effect on June 30, 2024, followed by broader provisions for crypto-assets and service providers on Dec. 30, 2024. Like the U.S. approach, MiCA does not cap holdings, instead focusing on reserves, governance and oversight by national regulators.
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What’s Next for Bitcoin and Ether as Downside Fears Ease Ahead of Fed Rate Cut?

Fears of a downside for bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) have eased substantially, according to the latest options market data. However, the pace of the next upward move in these cryptocurrencies will largely hinge on the magnitude of the anticipated Fed rate cut scheduled for Sept. 17.
BTC’s seven-day call/put skew, which measures how implied volatility is distributed across calls versus puts expiring in a week, has recovered to nearly zero from the bearish 4% a week ago, according to data source Amberdata.
The 30- and 60-day option skews, though still slightly negative, have rebounded from last week’s lows, signaling a notable easing of downside fears. Ether’s options skew is exhibiting a similar pattern at the time of writing.
The skew shows the market’s directional bias, or the extent to which traders are more concerned about prices rising or falling. A positive skew suggests a bias towards calls or bullish option plays, while a negative reading indicates relatively higher demand for put options or downside protection.
The reset in options comes as bitcoin and ether prices see a renewed upswing in the lead-up to Wednesday’s Fed rate decision, where the central bank is widely expected to cut rates and lay the groundwork for additional easing over the coming months. BTC has gained over 4% to over $116,000 in seven days, with ether rising nearly 8% to $4,650, according to CoinDesk data.
What happens next largely depends on the size of the impending Fed rate cut. According to CME’s Fed funds futures, traders have priced in over 90% probability that the central bank will cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4%-4.25%. But there is also a slight possibility of a jumbo 50 bps move.
BTC could go berserk in case the Fed delivers the surprise 50 bps move.
«A surprise 50 bps rate cut would be a massive +gamma BUY signal for ETH, SOL and BTC,» Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, said in an email. «Gold will go absolutely nuts as well.»
Note that the Deribit-listed SOL options already exhibit a strong bullish sentiment, with calls trading at 4-5 volatility premium to puts.
Magadini explained that if the decision comes in line with expectations for a 25 bps cut, then a continued calm «grind higher» for BTC looks likely. ETH, meanwhile, may take another week or so to retest all-time highs and convincingly trade above $5,000, he added.
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Asia Morning Briefing: Native Markets Wins Right to Issue USDH After Validator Vote

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Hyperliquid’s validator community has chosen Native Markets to issue USDH, ending a weeklong contest that drew proposals from Paxos, Frax, Sky (ex-MakerDAO), Agora, and others.
Native Markets, co-founded by former Uniswap Labs president MC Lader, researcher Anish Agnihotri, and early Hyperliquid backer Max Fiege, said it will begin rolling out USDH “within days,” according to a post by Fiege on X.
According to onchain trackers, Native Markets’ proposal took approximately 70% of validators’ votes, while Paxos took 20%, and Ethena came in at 3.2%.
The staged launch starts with capped mints and redemptions, followed by a USDH/USDC spot pair before caps are lifted.
USDH is designed to challenge Circle’s USDC, which currently dominates Hyperliquid with nearly $6 billion in deposits, or about 7.5% of its supply. USDC and other stablecoins will remain supported if they meet liquidity and HYPE staking requirements.
Most rival bidders had promised to channel stablecoin yields back to the ecosystem with Paxos via HYPE buybacks, Frax through direct user yield, and Sky with a 4.85% savings rate plus a $25 million “Genesis Star” project.
Native Markets’ pitch instead stressed credibility, trading experience, and validator alignment.
Market Movement
BTC: BTC has recently reclaimed the $115,000 level, helped by inflows into ETFs, easing U.S. inflation data, and growing expectations for interest rate cuts. Also, technical momentum is picking up, though resistance sits around $116,000, according to CoinDesk’s market insights bot.
ETH: ETH is trading above $4600. The price is being buoyed by strong ETF inflows.
Gold: Gold continues to trade near record highs as traders eye dollar weakness on expected Fed rate cuts.
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