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Risk-On Rules as CPI Fails to Dent Rally: Crypto Daybook Americas

Published

1 месяц ago

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Two years ago, I posted on X that the new normal for U.S. inflation in the post-COVID world is much higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The market’s reaction to Tuesday’s hotter-than-expected U.S. core CPI report suggests a growing number of investors now share that view.

The data for July showed that annualized core CPI topped the 3% mark for the first time, primarily due to the effects of President Trump’s tariffs. The Fed has only once cut interest rates when core inflation was above 3%.

Even so, bitcoin (BTC) rose by over 1% on Wednesday, and ether, often envisaged as an internet bond, jumped by over 8%. U.S. stocks also rallied as traders seemingly disregarded the inflation number and continued to price in a September rate cut.

This dynamic suggests that the 2% inflation target is likely dead. The U.S. Treasury Secretary said Tuesday that the Fed should consider a 50 basis-point cut in September.

This scenario is bullish for assets with inflation-hedge appeal, such as bitcoin and gold, as it implies that central banks are willing to overlook higher inflation to cut rates.

BTC recently traded near $120,000, while gold remained lackluster between $3,300 and $3,400. Several alternative cryptocurrencies posted gains in excess of 10% as retail investors flocked to cheaper coins.

«Bitcoin’s current rally reveals a structural shift in crypto market participation that could define this cycle,» Will K, CEO of decentralized trading platform VOOI and Co-Founder of Symbiosis.Finance, told CoinDesk. «While institutions gained exposure through ETFs, retail traders are quietly returning to DeFi platforms that have removed previous barriers to entry.»

This dual-sided crypto adoption has changed the market composition, where institutional capital flows through regulated products and sophisticated retail re-engages through evolved decentralized infrastructure.

«Traders are no longer choosing between traditional and decentralized markets, they’re using both simultaneously,» K said.

Speaking of adoption, USDC issuer Circle unveiled its stablecoin-focused layer 1 blockchain, Arc. The blockchain focus on financial transactions: payments, currency exchange and capital markets. Nasdaq-listed ALT5 Sigma completed a $1.5 billion registered direct offering and private placement led by World Liberty Financial.

In traditional markets, the MOVE index, which measures implied volatility in U.S. Treasury notes, fell to its lowest level since January 2022. The continued decline supports easing of financial conditions and increased risk-taking in financial markets. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto
    • Aug. 13, 9:30 a.m.: Shares of Bullish, the parent company of Bullish Exchange and CoinDesk, begin trading on the NYSE under ticker BLSH. The shares were priced at $37 each, with 30 million on offer to raise $1.1 billion and value the company near $5.4 billion.
    • Aug. 15: Record date for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Customer Entitlement, Class 6 General Unsecured and Convenience Claims who meet pre-distribution requirements.
    • Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives will launch nano SOL and nano XRP U.S. perpetual-style futures.
    • Aug. 20: Qubic (QUBIC), the fastest blockchain ever recorded, will undergo its first yearly halving event as part of a controlled emission model. Although gross emissions remain fixed at one trillion QUBIC tokens per week, the adaptive burn rate will increase substantially — burning some 28.75 trillion tokens and reducing net effective emissions to about 21.25 trillion tokens.
  • Macro
    • Aug. 13: A series of virtual meetings involving European leaders, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, NATO chief Mark Rutte, U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance among others to coordinate Ukraine support, apply pressure on Russia and discuss peace talks.
    • Aug. 13, 3 p.m.: Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census releases July consumer price inflation data.
      • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 1.8% vs. Prev. 1.6%
      • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 36.6% vs. Prev. 39.4%
    • Aug. 14, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases July producer price inflation data.
      • Core PPI MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.0%
      • Core PPI YoY Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 2.6%
      • PPI MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0%
      • PPI YoY Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.3%
    • Aug. 14, 7 p.m.: Peru’s central bank announces its monetary policy decision.
      • Reference Interest Rate Est. 4.5% vs. Prev. 4.5%
    • Aug. 14, 10 p.m.: El Salvador’s Statistics and Census Office, which is part of the Central Reserve Bank of El Salvador, releases July consumer price inflation data.
      • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.32%
      • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. -0.17%
    • Aug. 15: U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet in Alaska to discuss potential peace terms for the ongoing war in Ukraine.
    • Aug. 15, 12 p.m.: Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) releases Q2 GDP growth data.
      • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prev. 0.8%
      • GDP Growth Rate YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.7%
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • Aug. 14: KULR Technology Group (KULR), post-market
    • Aug. 15: Sharplink Gaming (SBET), pre-market
    • Aug. 15: BitFuFu (FUFU), pre-market, $0.07
    • Aug. 18: Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR), pre-market, -$0.12

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
    • Compound DAO is voting to appoint ChainSecurity and Certora as joint security provers, with ZeroShadow handling incident response under a $2 million, 12-month COMP-streamed budget starting Aug. 18. Voting ends Aug. 13.
    • Aavegotchi DAO is voting on a Bitcoin Ben’s Crypto Club Las Vegas sponsorship: a $1,000/month corporate membership (logo on sponsor wall, team access, newsletter feature, one branded meetup/month) or a $5,000, 90-day Graffiti Wall mural with promo. Voting ends Aug. 23.
    • Aug. 14, 10 a.m.: Lido to host a tokenholder update call.
    • Aug. 14, 10 a.m.: Stacks to host a townhall meeting.
  • Unlocks
    • Aug. 15: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.33% of its circulating supply worth $41.92 million.
    • Aug. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.53% of its circulating supply worth $18.22 million.
    • Aug. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 0.96% of its circulating supply worth $18.7 million.
    • Aug. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.8% of its circulating supply worth $44.79 million.
    • Aug. 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.64% of its circulating supply worth $91.6 million.
    • Aug. 20: LayerZero (ZRO) to unlock 8.53% of its circulating supply worth $60.41 million.
    • Aug. 20: Kaito (KAITO) to unlock 8.82% of its circulating supply worth $28.95 million.
  • Token Launches
    • Aug. 13: Overlay (OVL) to be listed on Binance Alpha, Gate.io, WEEX, Ourbit, MEXC, BYDFi, and others.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through Aug. 31.

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • OKB surged to a record $142 (+200%) after OKX announced a permanent supply cut to 21M tokens — one of the largest in its history — alongside a “PP upgrade” to its Polygon-powered X Layer chain.
  • The upgrade boosts throughput to 5,000 TPS, cuts gas fees to near zero and adds gasless USDT withdrawals.
  • OKX will also decommission OKTChain, halting OKT trading on Aug. 13 and converting balances to OKB from Aug. 15.
  • Eden Network is shutting down all services, including Eden RPC and Bundles, citing unprofitable competition in the MEV relay and block-building space.
  • Starting in 2021 to optimize MEV revenue for miners and validators, Eden saw early success but lost ground post-Merge as the market consolidated around a few operators.
  • FARTCOIN rose 17% as whale wallets with $1M+ in holdings increased supply by 2% over 24 hours, while “smart money” addresses boosted holdings by 3%.
  • MACD momentum on the daily chart is bullish, with the token eyeing a breakout above $1.74 if buying persists. Key support sits at $0.74 if momentum fades.

Derivatives Positioning

  • Ether’s (ETH) price rise is accompanied by fresh capital inflows into CME-listed futures, where open interest in standard contracts sized at 50 ETH has increased to 1.85 million ETH, up from 1.5 million ETH just over a week ago.
  • Traders appear to be positioning for an upside as the annualized three-month basis has topped 10%. In bitcoin’s (BTC) case, CME basis remains near 7.5%.
  • The altcoin market shows no signs of overheating despite ether surging toward record highs. That’s evident from perpetual funding rates on offshore exchanges, which remain pinned near annualized 10% for most major tokens.
  • Open interest in privacy-focused Monero (XMR) rose to the highest level since December, as the token’s price dropped to $245, the lowest since April. The data indicate that traders sold the rally to profit from the price drop.
  • On Deribit, ether traders chased calls at strike $5,000 and higher in a sign of bullish market sentiment. ETH calls traded at a premium relative to puts across all tenors. Still, ether’s 30-day implied volatility index, ETH DVOL, remained pinned in recent ranges around 70%.
  • BTC’s implied volatility also remained relatively steady. Flows on the OTC network Paradigm featured demand for higher-strike OTM calls, particularly the $ 160,000 strike.

Market Movements

  • BTC is down 0.1% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $120,049.72 (24hrs: +1.46%)
  • ETH is up 1.59% at $4,691.83 (24hrs: +9.76%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 1.28% at 4,370.33 (24hrs: +7.11%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 5 bps at 2.97%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0196% (21.462% annualized) on KuCoin

CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

  • DXY is down 0.45% at 97.66
  • Gold futures are up 0.48% at $3,415.20
  • Silver futures are up 1.64% at $38.62
  • Nikkei 225 closed up 1.30% at 43,274.67
  • Hang Seng closed up 2.58% at 25,613.67
  • FTSE is up 0.14% at 9,160.17
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.76% at 5,376.35
  • DJIA closed on Tuesday up 1.10% at 44,458.61
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.13% at 6,445.76
  • Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.39% at 21,681.90
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.53% at 27,921.26
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.82% at 2,696.80
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 3.9 bps at 4.254%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.17% at 6,479.75
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.23% at 23,992.25
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.22% at 44,656.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 59.3% (-0.63%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03858 (0.96%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 893 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $58.74
  • Total fees: 4.25 BTC / $506,562
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 139,255 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 35.7 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 10.1%

Technical Analysis

ETH's weekly chart with the RSI. (TradingView)

  • Ether’s 14-week relative strength index (RSI), a popular indicator, has crossed above 70 to indicate strong bullish momentum.
  • Historically, readings above 70 have marked phases of the market characterized by fear of missing out (FOMO) and rapid price rallies.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $394.39 (-1.46%), +0.66% at $397 in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $322.62 (+0.94%), +0.98% at $325.77
  • Circle (CRCL): closed at $163.21 (+1.27%), -4.45% at $155.94
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $27.90 (-2.04%), +1.83% at $28.41
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.72 (+0.38%), +1.02% at $15.88
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.44 (+2.97%), +0.96% at $11.55
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.11 (+3.99%), -5.89% at $14.22
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.92 (+0.51%), +0.81% at $10
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $25.41 (+1.4%)
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $34.54 (-2.1%)
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $27.86 (-7.5%), unchanged in pre-market
  • SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $22.47 (+0.6%), +2.67% at $23.07

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $65.9 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $54.65 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $523.9 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $11.38 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~6 million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the Day

MOVE index. (TradingView)

  • The MOVE index, measuring the 30-day expected volatility in the Treasury market, has dropped to 77.42, the lowest since January 2022.
  • The slide supports continued risk-taking in financial markets.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

Let’s just install @fundstrat as the head of the #Ethereum Foundation. Who is with me?M2 Money Supply jumps to a new all-time high of $22 TrillionThis is a clear chess move. Trump wants Powell to resign from the Fed once his term as Chair ends in 2026. pumpdotfun has recently bought back over $700K worth of $PUMP.Stripe, Circle, Robinhood, and Coinbase all launching their own EVM chains is a massive wake up call

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Memecoins Under Pressure as SHIB, Dogecoin Slide After Shibarium Loses $2.4M in Hack

Published

44 минуты ago

on

15 сентября, 2025

By

Top meme tokens traded under pressure as a multimillion dollar hack of Shiba Inu’s layer-2 network, Shibarium, dented investor confidence in joke cryptocurrencies.

On Sunday, Shibarium fell victim to a flash loan attack on its validator system, which drained about $2.4 million in ether (ETH) and SHIB. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index has dropped 6.6% in the past 24 hours. The broader market CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) is down just 2.3%.

The attacker borrowed 4.6 million BONE, the governance token for the Shiba Inu ecosystem, often linked to the decentralized exchange (DEX) ShibaSwap, through a flash loan to gain control of the majority of validator keys. The keys act as gatekeepers of the network, confirming transactions and ensuring security.

With that control, the attacker was able to game the system into approving unauthorized transactions and walk away with a large amount of crypto assets from the bridge that connects Shibarium with the Ethereum blockchain. The process is akin to someone temporarily taking over a bank’s security system to approve unauthorized withdrawals. A flash loan is a loan raised with no upfront collateral and returns the borrowed assets within the same blockchain transaction.

The Shiba inu team was able to prevent a bigger, more serious breach because the BONE tokens used to gain control were reportedly tied to validator 1 and remained locked by the staking rules.

Nevertheless, markets reacted negatively breach, which again underscores the perennial security issues with blockchain technology.

Memecoins drop, broader market bid

SHIB fell by the most in three weeks on Sunday (UTC), losing 4% $0.00001369, and has continued to weaken to trade recently at $0.00001359. The cryptocurrency experienced considerable volatility throughout the 23-hour trading window ended Sept. 15 at 02:00 UTC, with the aggregate range encompassing $0.000006191, a 4% oscillation from peak to trough.

The session commenced with pre-dawn fragility as SHIB retreated from $0.000014156 to establish a pivotal trough of $0.000013547 at 14:00 UTC. Volume of 1.064 trillion tokens surpassed the 24-hour mean, signaling robust distribution pressure and prospective capitulation, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model.

The BONE token, which initially doubled to over 36 cents, is now down over 2% on a 24-hour basis, trading at around 20 cents.

According to the technical analysis model:

  • SHIB established a critical underpinning at $0.000013547 during elevated volume selling pressure exceeding 1.064 trillion tokens.
  • The token constructed successive higher lows and consolidation parameters between $0.000013600-$0.000013780.
  • Recovery momentum is demonstrated by ascending channel formations with sustained higher lows, indicating potential continuation towards the $0.000014000 resistance.
  • Volume patterns exceeded 24-hour averages during the decline phase, confirming potential capitulation levels.
  • Terminal hour trading exhibited decisive upward momentum with 1% appreciation, confirming a breach above the resistance threshold.

Large DOGE transfers add to bearish sentiment

Meanwhile, SHIB’s peer dogecoin (DOGE) fell 4% to 27.80 cents on Sunday and has since lost further 5% to 27.36 cents, according CoinDesk data.

A massive transfer of DOGE to a centralized exchange likely added to the bearish mood in the market. According to Whale Alert, crypto exchange OKX received 119,306,143 DOGE, worth over $34 million, from an unknown wallet. Such large transfers are typically associated with an intention to liquidate holdings.

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Fed Rate Decision, MKR-SKY Conversion Deadline: Crypto Week Ahead

Published

1 час ago

on

15 сентября, 2025

By

The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to dominate markets, both crypto and traditional, in the coming week. Traders are positioned for a rate cut of at least 25 basis points when the Fed announces its decision on Sept. 17, according to CME’s Fedwatch tool.

What to Watch

  • Crypto
  • Macro
    • Sept. 16: Brazil July unemployment rate Est. N/A (Prev. 5.8%).
    • Sept. 16: Canada August headline CPI YoY Est. N/A (Prev. 1.7%), MoM Est. N/A (Prev. 0.3%); core YoY Est. N/A (Prev. 2.6%), MoM Est. N/A (Prev. 0.1%).
    • Sept. 16: U.K. July unemployment rate Est. 4.7%.
    • Sept. 17: U.K. August headline CPI YoY Est. 3.9%. MoM Est. N/A (Prev. 0.1%); core YoY Est. 3.7%, MoM Est. N/A (Prev. 0.2%).
    • Sept. 17: Canada benchmark interest rate Est. N/A (Prev. 2.75%) followed by a press conference.
    • Sept. 17: The Fed’s FOMC decision on U.S. interest rates. Est: 25 bps cut to 4.00%-4.25% followed by a press conference.
    • Sept. 17: Brazil benchmark interest rate Est. N/A (Prev. 15%).
    • Sept. 18: Bank of England decision on U.K. interest rates. Est: unchanged at 4%.
    • Sept. 19: Bank of Japan interest-rate decision. Est: unchanged at 0.5%.
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • Sept. 18: Lite Strategy (MEIP), pre-market

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
    • Curve DAO is voting to changes to donation-enabled Twocrypto contracts. Voting ends Sept. 16.
    • Sept. 16: Aster Network to host a community call.
    • MantleDAO is voting on keeping the 2025-2026 budget at $52 million USDc and 200 million MNT. Voting ends Sept. 18
    • Sept. 18, 6 a.m.: Mantle to host Mantle State of Mind, a monthly townhall series.
    • Sept. 16, 12 p.m.:Kava to host a community Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.
    • Sept. 23: SwissBorg to make a live announcement.
  • Unlocks
    • Sept. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 5.98% of its circulating supply worth $17.09 million.
    • Sept. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.18% of its circulating supply worth $18.06 million.
    • Sept. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $48.16 million.
    • Sept. 17: ZKsync (ZK) to unlock 3.61% of its circulating supply worth $10.54 million.
    • Sept. 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 2.08% of its circulating supply worth $89.8 million
    • Sept. 20: Velo (VELO) to unlock 13.63% of its circulating supply worth $43.39 million.
    • Sept. 20: KAITO (KAITO) to unlock 3.15% of its circulating supply worth $10.1 million.
  • Token Launches
    • Sept. 15: OpenLedger (OPENLEDGER) to be listed on Crypto.com.
    • Sept. 18: Deadline to convert MKR to SKY before the delayed upgrade penalty takes effect.
    • Sept. 20: Reserve Rights (RSR) to conduct a token burn.
    • Sept. 22: Falcon Finance to host community sale on Buidlpad.

Conferences

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Bank of England’s Proposed Stablecoin Ownership Limits are Unworkable, Says Crypto Group

Published

3 часа ago

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15 сентября, 2025

By

The Financial Times (FT) reported on Monday that cryptocurrency groups are urging the Bank of England (BoE) to scrap proposals limiting the amount of stablecoins individuals and businesses can own.

The group warned that the rules would leave the UK with stricter oversight than the U.S. or the European Union (EU).

According to the FT, BoE officials plan to impose caps of 10,000 british pounds to 20,000 british pounds ($13,600–$27,200) for individuals and about 10 million british pounds ($13.6 million) for businesses on all systemic stablecoins, defined as tokens already widely used for payments in the U.K. or expected to be in the future.

The central bank has argued the restrictions are needed to prevent outflows of deposits from banks that could weaken credit provision and financial stability.

The FT cited Sasha Mills, the BoE’s executive director for financial market infrastructure, as saying the limits would mitigate risks from sudden deposit withdrawals and the scaling of new systemic payment systems.

However, industry executives told the FT the plan is unworkable.

Tom Duff Gordon, Coinbase’s vice president of international policy, said “imposing caps on stablecoins is bad for U.K. savers, bad for the City and bad for sterling,” adding that no other major jurisdiction has imposed such limits.

Simon Jennings of the UK cryptoasset business council said enforcement would be nearly impossible without new systems such as digital IDs. Riccardo Tordera-Ricchi of The Payments Association told the FT that limits “make no sense” because there are no caps on cash or bank accounts.

The U.S. enacted the GENIUS Act in July, which establishes a federal framework for payment stablecoins. The law sets licensing, reserve and redemption standards for issuers, with no caps on individual holdings. The European Union has also moved ahead with its Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), which is now fully in effect across the bloc.

Stablecoin-specific rules for asset-referenced and e-money tokens took effect on June 30, 2024, followed by broader provisions for crypto-assets and service providers on Dec. 30, 2024. Like the U.S. approach, MiCA does not cap holdings, instead focusing on reserves, governance and oversight by national regulators.

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