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Asia Morning Briefing: Polymarket Bettors Foresee $5K ETH by End of August

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
As Asia begins its trading day, ETH is trading above $4600, up 10% in the last 24 hours, as the possibility of a rate cut in September works its way through the market. Some traders see it likely that ETH could quickly challenge its all-time high of $4876 set in 2021.
Polymarket bettors are going a step further; they believe that $5000 is possible before the end of August, and they are also giving a 28% chance of the asset’s price crossing $5800 before the month ends.
The surge has helped pull bitcoin dominance down from 65% to 59% as traders rotate into altcoins.
In a recent report, analysts at Glassnode wrote that ETH is now nearing the +1 standard deviation “Active Realized Price” band around $4.7K, a level that has triggered heavy selling in past cycles.
But behind the scenes, there’s a growing liquidity sink that might weigh heavily on ETH’s next phase of growth.
A new CryptoQuant report shows that Ethereum is increasingly serving as a liquidity source for TRON’s USDT ecosystem.
On Aug. 9, CryptoQuant data shows that a record $7.7 million worth of ETH was bridged to TRON and converted into USDT, while June 25 saw $19 million worth of ERC20 tokens, mostly USDC, make the same move.
Inflows from TRON back to Ethereum remain minimal, highlighting a one-way flow of value that supports TRON’s stablecoin economy but siphons liquidity from Ethereum’s native DeFi activity.
Over time, persistent outflows can weigh on spot demand and reduce Ethereum’s ongoing fee revenue and staking rewards as more of the stablecoin economy clears elsewhere.
If this trend persists, Ethereum’s role could increasingly resemble that of a wholesale funding layer, powering liquidity for rival networks rather than capturing the transactional activity itself.
That dynamic may not derail the current rally in the short term, but it could limit the sustainability of higher valuations if capital flight toward faster, cheaper settlement layers like TRON continues unchecked.
But for now, the market has its eyes on $5K ETH.
Market Movers
BTC: Bitcoin holds $119,943 (+0.4%) with bullish momentum intact, though resistance looms at $123K amid ETF outflows and ETH’s rally, according to CoinDesk’s market insights bot.
ETH: ETH is trading above $4600 as the possibility of a 50 bps rate cut looms large.
Gold: Gold edged up to around $3,350 as U.S. inflation data reinforced Fed rate cut bets, while easing U.S.-China trade tensions limited gains.
S&P 500: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs as July CPI data met expectations, boosting bets on a September Fed rate cut and lifting tech stocks.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets opened higher Wednesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 1% after a record close Tuesday.
Elsewhere in Crypto
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London Stock Exchange Unveils Blockchain-Based Platform for Private Funds

The London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) said it facilitated the first transaction on a new blockchain-based platform for private funds.
LSEG’s Digital Markets Infrastructure (DMI), built using Microsoft Azure, is designed to use blockchain technology across the full lifecycle of an asset, from issuance to settlement, with greater scale and efficiencies than existing systems, according to a Monday announcement.
Investment manager MembersCap and digital asset exchange Archax were onboarded as DMI’s first clients and conducted the first transaction, which raised money for MembersCap’s MCM Fund 1.
LSEG said it will ensure DMI works with current market services in blockchain technology as well as traditional finance (TradFi).
DMI and its first transaction are «significant milestones demonstrating the appetite for end-to-end, interoperable, regulated financial markets» blockchain technology, Dark Hajdukovic, LSEG’s head of digital markets infrastructure, said in the statement.
TradFi exchanges in numerous markets have been embedding blockchain technology into their platforms as a means of increasing efficiency and reducing costs. Last week, the Nasdaq filed a proposal with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to tokenize stocks on its exchange for trading on the blockchain with trades assigned the same priority as the legacy method.
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Bitcoin Cohorts Return to Net Selling as Market Continues to Consolidate

Glassnode data shows that all wallet cohorts have returned to distribution mode, with a net selling of bitcoin, according to the Accumulation Trend Score breakdown by wallet cohort.
This metric disaggregates the Accumulation Trend Score to show the relative behavior of different groups of wallet. It measures the strength of accumulation for each balance size based on both the entities’ size and the volume of coins acquired over the past 15 days. (For more details on the methodology, see this Academy entry.)
- A value closer to 1 signals accumulation by that cohort.
- A value closer to 0 signals distribution.
Exchanges, miners and other similar entities are excluded from the calculation.
Currently, all cohorts, from wallets holding less than one bitcoin to those holding more than 10,000, are net sellers. This follows last week’s rally, when some whales — most notably the 10-100 BTC and 1,000-10,000 BTC cohorts were buying. They have since flipped back to selling.
Bitcoin was recently hovering near $117,000 after Asia’s trading session pushed it up from $115,000 dollars over the weekend. Over the past three months, Asia has consistently driven bitcoin roughly 10 percent higher, according to Velo data. In contrast, the European trading session has been marked by pullbacks, which has been seen on Monday so far. In addition, bitcoin is down more than 10% in the EU market over the past three months.
Overall, the market remains in consolidation, a trend likely to persist through September. On current data, the $107,000 marked at the start of September still appears to be the most probable bottom.
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Memecoins Under Pressure as SHIB, Dogecoin Slide After Shibarium Loses $2.4M in Hack

Top meme tokens traded under pressure as a multimillion dollar hack of Shiba Inu’s layer-2 network, Shibarium, dented investor confidence in joke cryptocurrencies.
On Sunday, Shibarium fell victim to a flash loan attack on its validator system, which drained about $2.4 million in ether (ETH) and SHIB. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index has dropped 6.6% in the past 24 hours. The broader market CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) is down just 2.3%.
The attacker borrowed 4.6 million BONE, the governance token for the Shiba Inu ecosystem, often linked to the decentralized exchange (DEX) ShibaSwap, through a flash loan to gain control of the majority of validator keys. The keys act as gatekeepers of the network, confirming transactions and ensuring security.
With that control, the attacker was able to game the system into approving unauthorized transactions and walk away with a large amount of crypto assets from the bridge that connects Shibarium with the Ethereum blockchain. The process is akin to someone temporarily taking over a bank’s security system to approve unauthorized withdrawals. A flash loan is a loan raised with no upfront collateral and returns the borrowed assets within the same blockchain transaction.
The Shiba inu team was able to prevent a bigger, more serious breach because the BONE tokens used to gain control were reportedly tied to validator 1 and remained locked by the staking rules.
Nevertheless, markets reacted negatively breach, which again underscores the perennial security issues with blockchain technology.
Memecoins drop, broader market bid
SHIB fell by the most in three weeks on Sunday (UTC), losing 4% $0.00001369, and has continued to weaken to trade recently at $0.00001359. The cryptocurrency experienced considerable volatility throughout the 23-hour trading window ended Sept. 15 at 02:00 UTC, with the aggregate range encompassing $0.000006191, a 4% oscillation from peak to trough.
The session commenced with pre-dawn fragility as SHIB retreated from $0.000014156 to establish a pivotal trough of $0.000013547 at 14:00 UTC. Volume of 1.064 trillion tokens surpassed the 24-hour mean, signaling robust distribution pressure and prospective capitulation, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model.
The BONE token, which initially doubled to over 36 cents, is now down over 2% on a 24-hour basis, trading at around 20 cents.
According to the technical analysis model:
- SHIB established a critical underpinning at $0.000013547 during elevated volume selling pressure exceeding 1.064 trillion tokens.
- The token constructed successive higher lows and consolidation parameters between $0.000013600-$0.000013780.
- Recovery momentum is demonstrated by ascending channel formations with sustained higher lows, indicating potential continuation towards the $0.000014000 resistance.
- Volume patterns exceeded 24-hour averages during the decline phase, confirming potential capitulation levels.
- Terminal hour trading exhibited decisive upward momentum with 1% appreciation, confirming a breach above the resistance threshold.
Large DOGE transfers add to bearish sentiment
Meanwhile, SHIB’s peer dogecoin (DOGE) fell 4% to 27.80 cents on Sunday and has since lost further 5% to 27.36 cents, according CoinDesk data.
A massive transfer of DOGE to a centralized exchange likely added to the bearish mood in the market. According to Whale Alert, crypto exchange OKX received 119,306,143 DOGE, worth over $34 million, from an unknown wallet. Such large transfers are typically associated with an intention to liquidate holdings.
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