By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The crypto market consolidated on Wednesday’s tariff pause-spurred price bounce with memecoins, AI and DeFi tokens standing out as the best-performing crypto sub-sectors. Coins including HYPE, HBAR and SHIB led the recovery.

Bullish technical patterns and a sharp overnight pullback in Treasury market volatility, as represented by the MOVE index, suggested further gains are in the offing. The China-sensitive Australian dollar extended Wednesday’s gain, offering positive cues to risk assets. U.S. equity futures, however, did not reflect that optimism, trading more than 1% lower.

Another note of caution showed in derivatives data. LTC, TON, BCH, BNB and PEPE were the only coins with 24-hour growth in open interest, validating price recovery. Open interest in other majors cryptocurrencies, including BTC and ETH, fell, a sign the recovery was mainly led by the unwinding of bearish bets and not fresh bullish positioning.

President Donald Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on China to 125% and reduce others to 10% for 90 days still leaves the U.S. with an average import tax rate of 24% versus 27% before Thursday. That’s still, anti-growth, pro-inflation and anti-risk assets, according to Bloomberg.

In broader crypto market news, the SEC published the 19b-4 filing by Cboe BZX Exchange to list the Fidelity Solana Fund in the Federal Register. That’s said to bring the regulator one step closer to listing the SOL ETF in the U.S.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March meeting showed consensus among policymakers over the risk of the economy entering stagflation, characterized by higher inflation and slower growth, with some members saying «difficult tradeoffs» could lie ahead of the central bank.

The focus today will be on the U.S. consumer price index data for March, which is forecast to have increased by just 0.1% month-on-month, the slowest pace in eight months, according to FXStreet. A soft print may be dismissed as backward-looking, considering the trade war escalated more recently. On the other hand, a hotter-than-expected reading may lift Treasury yields and the dollar. Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto

April 10, 10:30 a.m.: Status conference for former Terraform Labs CEO Do Kwon at the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.

April 11, 1 p.m.: U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force Roundtable on «Tailoring Regulation for Crypto Trading» in Washington.

April 17: EigenLayer (EIGEN) activates slashing on Ethereum mainnet, enforcing penalties for operator misconduct.

Macro

April 10, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases March consumer price inflation data.

Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%

Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3% vs. Prev. 3.1%

Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.2%

Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.8%

April 10, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended April 5.

Initial Jobless Claims Est. 223K vs. Prev. 219K

April 10, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Senate Banking Committee hearing on the nomination of Michelle Bowman as Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision. Livestream link.

April 11, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases March producer price inflation data.

Core PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. -0.1%

Core PPI YoY Est. 3.6% vs. Prev. 3.4%

PPI MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0%

PPI YoY Est. 3.3% vs. Prev. 3.2%

April 14: Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele will join U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House for an official working visit.

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

April 22: Tesla (TSLA), post-market

April 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market

Token Events

Governance votes & calls

Spartan Council is voting on raising the liquidation ratio for SNX solo stakers, with an initial increase to 250% on April 11, then to 500% on April 18 and “high enough to deprecate solo SNX staking” on April 21. Voting ends April 19.

Lido DAO is discussing onboarding credit delegation protocol Twyne into the Lido Alliance. Twyne aims to expand stETH’s use cases and is requesting strategic endorsement, promotional support and technical guidance from Lido.

April 10, 10 a.m.: Hedera to host a community call discussing the HBR Foundation joining ERC3643, the non-profit’s standards, and the Header Asset Tokenization Studio.

April 11, 3 p.m.: Zcash to host a town hall on lockbox distribution & governance.

April 14, 10 a.m.: Stacks to host a livestream with recent announcements from the project.

Unlocks

April 10: Internet Computer (ICP) to unlock 0.57% of its circulating supply worth $13.54 million.

April 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.87% of its circulating supply worth $51.69 million.

April 12: Axie Infinity (AXS) to unlock 5.68% of its circulating supply worth $21.73 million.

April 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 4.37% of its circulating supply worth $16.71 million.

April 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.01% of its circulating supply worth $26.27 million.

April 18: Official Trump (TRUMP) to unlock 20.25% of its circulating supply worth $324.35 million.

Token Launches

April 10: Stacks (STX) to be listed on Bitfinex.

April 10: Streamr (DATA) to be listed on Binance.US.

April 10: Babylon (BABY) to be listed on Binance, Bitget, Bybit, Bitrue, KuCoin, OKX, and others.

April 10: Ren (REN), KonPay (KON) and Symbol (XYM) to be delisted from Bybit.

April 22: Hyperlane to airdrop its HYPER tokens.

Conferences:

Day 3 of 3: Paris Blockchain Week

Day 2 of 2: FIBE Fintech Festival Berlin 2025

Day 2 of 2: Mexico Finance & Fintech Summit 2025 (Mexico City)

Day 2 of 2: Middle East Resilient Banking and Payments Symposium 2025 (Abu Dhabi)

April 10: Bitcoin Educators Unconference (Nashville)

April 10: FinXtex Malaysia 2025 (Kuala Lumpur)

April 10: Institutional Crypto Conference (New York)

April 10: SheFi Sumit 2025 (Seoul)

Day 1 of 2: BITE-CON 2025 Conference (Miami)

Day 1 of 2: 2025 Fintech and Financial Institutions Research Conference (Philadelphia)

April 11-12: Strategy’s OPNEXT Conference (Tysons, Va.)

April 12: Ethereum Argentina (Córdoba)

April 12-13: DeSci London 2025

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

DeFi-focused upstart Berachain has recorded net outflows of $320 million in the past week, the most among all networks, followed by Arbitrum with just $30 million in exits.

Berachain’s daily active users dropped from a high of 630,000 on March 3, according to TokenTerminal, to just over 300,000 as of April 8.

The network’s BERA token is down 40% in a week, shrinking its market cap to $465 million and fully diluted value to $2.1 billion. It got a 12% lift on Thursday after Trump’s 90-day tariff pause, but it’s still a far cry from good news.

Total value locked is down 23% to $2.7 billion from a peak of $3.5 billion on March 26, DefiLlama data shows. Still, the blockchain enjoys a cult following and is hyped among retail traders making it one to watch when market conditions improve.

Meanwhile, Ethereum layer-2 Base, backed by Coinbase, has emerged as the top network with over $186 million in net inflows in the past 10 days.

Derivatives Positioning

BTC, ETH annualized futures basis held steady above 5% during the recent rout, signaling resilient market sentiment.

Put skews for the two largest cryptocurrencies on Deribit have weakened, but continue to show downside fears out to the June end expiry.

Flows featured purchases of $100K BTC calls expiring in December, reflecting a bullish long-term outlook.

Market Movements:

BTC is down 1.74% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $81,748.51 (24hrs: +6.2%)

ETH is down 4.65%% at $1,595.49 (24hrs: +7.78%)

CoinDesk 20 is down 1.72% at 2,372.30 (24hrs: +7.55%)

Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged at 3.69%

BTC funding rate is at 0.0043% (4.7085% annualized) on Binance

DXY is down 0.85% at 102.03

Gold is up 2.23% at $3,124.6/oz

Silver is up 1.68% at $30.83/oz

Nikkei 225 closed +9.13% at 34,609.00

Hang Seng closed +2.06% at 20,681.78

FTSE is up 3.97% at 7,984.64

Euro Stoxx 50 is up 5.33% at 4,868.37

DJIA closed on Wednesday +7.87% at 40,608.45

S&P 500 closed +9.52% at 5,456.90

Nasdaq closed +12.16% at 17,124.97

S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +5.42% at 23,727.00

S&P 40 Latin America closed +7.02% at 2,330.16

U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 7 bps at 4.29%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 2.13% at 5,374.00

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 2.44% at 18,818.50

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 1.58% at 40,189.00

Bitcoin Stats:

BTC Dominance: 63.47 (0.34%)

Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.01953 (-3.36%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 899 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $41.08

Total Fees: 5.6 BTC / $438,630

CME Futures Open Interest: 134,545

BTC priced in gold: 26.2 oz

BTC vs gold market cap: 7.47%

Technical Analysis

The per barrel prices for West Texas Intermediate crude oil have dropped below the long-held support at $67, suggesting more losses ahead.

Sliding crude could help compensate for the inflationary impact of Trump’s tariffs, helping central banks, including the Fed, to cut interest rates and support risk assets in case of a major market instability.

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $2296.86 (+24.76%), down 3.64% at $286.06 in pre-market

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $177.09 (+16.91%), down 2.31% at $173

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$15.19 (+14.9%)

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.31 (+17.02%), down 2.44% at $12.01

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.38(+12.84%), down 1.56% at $7.26

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $7.51 (+15.36%), down 3.6% at $7.24

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.63 (+13.2%), down 2.75% at $7.42

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $13.06 (+13.66%)

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $35.16 (+9.98%)

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $43.14 (+7.47%), up 8.92% at $46.99

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily net flow: -$127.2 million

Cumulative net flows: $35.61 billion

Total BTC holdings ~ 1.11 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flow: -$11.2 million

Cumulative net flows: $2.36 billion

Total ETH holdings ~ 3.37 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

The chart shows the breakdown of BTC options block trades on Deribit. Block trades are large trades executed on over-the-counter tech platforms and then listed on Deribit.

Selling call options has been the most popular play, a sign market participants are betting on a drop in volatility and slow price ascent.

While You Were Sleeping

China State Media Hints at Rate Cuts to Counter Trump’s Tariffs (Bloomberg): Front-page commentary in the state-run Securities Daily urged rate cuts and lower bank reserve requirements to fight deflation and offset Trump’s tariffs.

Russia, United States to Hold Talks on Diplomatic Missions (Reuters): Talks in Istanbul aim to resolve embassy issues, including restrictions on diplomat movements and frozen assets such as consulates, trade missions, and historic estates.

Crypto Investors Flee Spot Bitcoin, Ether ETFs on Tariff-Driven Uncertainty (CoinDesk): U.S.-listed spot BTC and ETH ETFs saw outflows Wednesday even as cryptocurrency prices surged.

Bitcoin Eyes $87K After Double Bottom Breakout; Dogecoin, XRP Bulls Look to Establish Control (CoinDesk): Bitcoin rebounded from two recent lows near $74,600 and broke above $80,800, a move analysts say could push it toward $87,000.

Binance Gains Market Share as Bitcoin Volume Declined 77% From Yearly Peak: CryptoQuant (CoinDesk): A volume drop of such magnitude suggests traders and investors are losing interest or confidence.

NFT Marketplace Magic Eden Buys Trading App Slingshot (CoinDesk): Slingshot allows trading tokens from a single USDC balance, removing the need for wallet setup, gas fees or moving assets across blockchains, expanding Magic Eden beyond Solana to all chains.

In the Ether

Ether (ETH) fell to a two-year low of $1,412 this week and the volatility appears to have been too much for one long-time holder, who sold of the majority of their stash acquired at around $8 in 2016.

On-chain data shows that the wallet in question swapped 14,015 ETH for $22 million USDC over a 15-hour period on decentralized exchange Uniswap.

The investor also sold 6,630 ETH in May 2022 and 4,035 ETH in June 2023 — each time during a major market dip.

This time was no different with ETH having just tumbled from a cycle high of $4,000 in December. They still hold 521 ETH valued at $830,000.

ETH has rebounded in line with the wider market on Thursday, currently trading at $1,598 having risen by 8.2% in the past 24 hours. Trading volume has also increased by 25% to $33 billion as optimism creeps into the market following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to pause tariffs for 90 days.

The Nasdaq closed 12% higher on Wednesday, marking its second-largest gain in history, following President Trump’s decision to pause the implementation of tariffs for 90 days. Strategy (MSTR), one of the fastest-recovering stocks and a component of the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) ETF, surged 25%.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 climbed nearly 10%, recording its third-largest single-day gain—surpassed only by two days in 2008.

While this may seem bullish on the surface, it’s worth noting that the Nasdaq’s three biggest rallies occurred in 2001 and 2008—both during recessions and followed by new lows. Similarly, the S&P 500’s two larger green days were also during the 2008 financial crisis. Investors should be aware of bear market rallies.

There’s growing speculation about why Trump backed off on tariffs. Globally, rising bond yields were rattling markets. According to FOX Business Senior Correspondent Charles Gasparino, the pressure in the bond market may have stemmed from Japan selling bonds—not China, as many had assumed.

As the market rallied, the VIX (Volatility Index) closed at 34, registering the largest one-day percentage drop in its history, surpassing the 2010 record.

Bitcoin (BTC) also saw a spike, briefly rallying above $82,000. However, it remains within the downward channel it has followed since January.