It’s been an exceptionally volatile week, but one measure may be signaling longer-term bullish sentiment for bitcoin.

The sell-off in equities began on April 3, spurred by President Donald Trump’s tariff-led uncertainties. Each day since then has been marked by sharp moves in both directions. The panic has hit both the equities and bond markets, while gold has surged to new all-time highs, and the DXY Index has broken below 100 for the first time since July 2023.

In response, the S&P Volatility Index (VIX)—often called Wall Street’s «fear gauge» —has surged to its highest level since last August and this is where things get interesting for bitcoin.

The ratio of bitcoin to VIX has hit 1,903 currently, touching a long-term trendline that last time coincided with market volatility around the unwinding of the yen carry trade. At the time, bitcoin had reached a bottom of around $49,000.

In fact, this is the fourth time this ratio has hit the trendline and then found the bottom. Previously, it touched the line in March 2020 during the peak COVID-19 crisis and initially in August 2015, both times followed by a rally in prices.

If this trendline continues to serve as reliable support, it could suggest that bitcoin might have once again found a long-term bottom.

Read more: Bitcoin’s Recent Drawdown Proves Its More Than Just a Leveraged Tech Play

April—a month marked by extreme market volatility—saw intensifying U.S.-China tensions and a broad selloff in global markets that led to panic selling of almost all asset classes.

Amid the chaos, one of the most improbable winners emerged from the strange depth of the crypto market: Fartcoin (FART).

The Solana-based memecoin, has rallied nearly 90% in the past week and roughly 300% over the past month, leaving traditional assets — and much of the crypto market— far behind.

By comparison, bitcoin (BTC)—the largest and most established cryptocurrency—has been roughly flat over the past week and month, while riskier altcoins like ether (ETH), Solana (SOL) and XRP are in the red. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index has slid around 2% over the past week and is down nearly 5% over the month as rising bond yields and geopolitical tensions weigh on risk assets.

It has even outperformed gold, which recently hit an all-time high driven by safe-haven demand, gaining 6.5% in a week and up 12% in a month.

“Fartcoin’s absurd outperformance is the perfect metaphor for this market,» said Kirill Kretov, trading automation expert at CoinPanel, in a message on Telegram. «A joke wrapped in volatility, where escalating U.S.-China tariffs make ‘rational’ trading a fantasy.»

What FARTCOIN’s rise mean for cryptos

By design, memcoins are cryptocurrencies that occupy an extreme corner of the crypto market. Unlike more established digital currencies, they have no utility or scarcity. These tokens, like Fartcoin, are unapologetically speculative, driven largely by social media hype, online communities and the momentum of short-term traders.

Read more: Crypto for Advisors: Memecoins

Launched in October, Fartcoin quickly gained prominence as one of the tokens propagated by Truth Terminal, an autonomous artificial intelligence (AI) agent created by Andy Ayrey, and became a viral hit amid the crypto-AI speculative wave driven by launchpad Pump.fun. Popularized with joke community slogans like «hot air rises» and «billions must fart,» the token’s market cap swelled from zero to just shy of $2.5 billion by mid-January.

Then, it all came crashing down with the crypto market as Donald Trump’s inauguration, and the TRUMP token launch marked the peak of speculative froth. FART, similarly to other small and risky cryptocurrencies, tumbled over 90% to a $200 million market value by March. But, since then, it bottomed out and has staged a staggering comeback, becoming one of the best tokens in the digital assets sector.

What makes fartcoin’s rally dumbfounding is that it completely decouples from other speculative memecoins. Since Fartcoin has already quadrupled in price, other prominent meme tokens like dogecoin (DOGE), pepecoin (PEPE), dogwifhat (WIF) and TRUMP languished near their lows.

«I have never seen such relative strength during macro uncertainty and no signs of animal spirits for altcoins,» said pseudonymous crypto trader Smiley Capital, who has gained a substantial following for his blunt commentary. «It takes a special kind of retardation paired with conviction to simply size up into an asset named Fartcoin whilst the global economy is imploding.»

The token’s outperformance could also be an early signal of risk-on sentiment returning to markets—at least amid crypto traders—after past week’s extreme fear, Smiley Capital speculated.

«It’s also a barometer and frontrunner for broader risk assets,» he pointed out. «That’s a statement most of you are not ready to hear yet, or even grasp.»

Whether the unpredictable and absurd nature of the new financial order is highlighted by Fartcoin’s rise or simply another chapter in the memecoin market remains to be seen.

But Fartcoin’s stunning rally, outperforming most of the asset classes, serves as a reminder that virality often trumps fundamentals in the current market, regardless of how absurd it may sound.

Read more: TRUMP Token Pops 12% After U.S. President Calls It ‘The Greatest of Them All’

Bitcoin (BTC) rose over 1.5% to $84,900 Saturday, looking to break a three-month downtrend after the Trump administration issued new guidance on reciprocal tariffs, listing several exemptions like smartphones, computers, chips and other electronics.

These exclusions, published by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, list products from President Donald Trump’s 125% China tariff and his baseline 10% global levy.

«The US imports over $60 BILLION of smartphones per year. These exemptions cover some of the most crucial imports in another sign of the U.S. conceding in the trade war. After all, the bond market is forcing Trump to concede,» The Kobeissi Letter said on X.

The U.S. and China ratcheted up trade tensions this week, imposing import tariffs in excess of 100% over each other. Still, some sections of the financial market have priced in disinflation in the U.S., going against popular inflation fears and suggesting that the Fed might soon have a leeway to cut interest rates.

The chart shows that BTC is looking to establish a foothold above the descending trendline, characterizing the steep sell-off from record highs above $109K. The so-called trendline breakout could entice more chart-driven buyers to the market.

Meanwhile, major alternative cryptocurrencies like ETH, XRP, and ADA surged by 6% on the day, indicating a trend of increased risk-taking in the broader crypto market. The cumulative market cap of the top two stablecoins, USDT and USDC, held steady above $200 billion, just shy of record highs.

This positive momentum in the crypto market, which opened for trading over the weekend, suggests the potential for price gains on Wall Street come Monday.