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Bitcoin’s Long-Term Bullishness Evaporates From Options Market as Inflation Concern Rises

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The bitcoin (BTC) bull, once confidently gazing into the future, is reconsidering its long-term bullish conviction.

That’s evident from the 180-day skew, measuring the difference in implied volatility (pricing) between Deribit-listed out-of-the-money call and put options. The metric has recently retreated to zero, according to data source Amberdata, indicating that long-term market sentiment has shifted from bullish to neutral. The shift comes as some analysts warn of a bear market in 2026.

A similar reset occurred at the onset of the previous bitcoin bear market, according to Griffin Ardern, head of options trading and research at crypto financial platform BloFin.

«I’ve noticed a rather worrying sign with the recent market pullback. Bitcoin’s bullish sentiment for the far-month options has vanished, and it is now firmly neutral,» Ardern told CoinDesk. «This means the options market believes it’s difficult for BTC to establish a long-term uptrend, and the likelihood of new highs in the coming months is decreasing.»

«A similar situation last occurred in Jan and Feb 2022,» he added.

A put option offers insurance against price drops in the underlying asset, while a call provides an asymmetric bullish exposure. A positive skew implies a bias towards calls, indicating bullishness in the market, whereas a negative skew suggests the opposite.

BTC 180-day options skew. (Amberdata/Deribit)

The neutral shift in the 180-day skew could be partly driven by structured products selling higher strike call options to generate additional yield on top of the spot market holdings.

The popularity of the so-called covered call strategy could be driving the call implied volatility lower relative to puts.

Macro jitters

BTC fell over 4% last week, nearly testing its former record high of $11,965, as the core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rose in June, while nonfarm payrolls disappointed, stoking concerns about the economy.

The price drop has pushed short-term skews below zero, a sign of traders seeking downside protection through puts.

According to Ardern, the inflationary effects of «supply chain impulses» are already showing up in economic data.

«Although falling auto prices in the last CPI report offset rising prices for other goods, one thing is undeniable: the impulse from the West Coast of the Pacific has reached the East Coast, and retailers are already trying to pass on tariffs and a host of associated costs to consumers. While wholesalers and commodity trading firms are working to smooth supply chains, price increases will still occur, albeit more moderately or «delayed by several months,» Ardern noted, explaining the renewed neutrality of the long-term BTC options.

According to JPMorgan, President Donald Trump’s tariffs are likely to elevate inflation in the second half of the year.

«Global core inflation is projected to increase to 3.4% (annualized rate) in the second half of 2025, largely due to a tariff-related U.S. spike,» analysts at the investment bank noted, adding that cost pressures will likely be concentrated in the U.S.

An uptick in inflation could make it harder for the Fed to cut rates. Trump has repeatedly criticized the central bank for keeping rates elevated at 4.25%.

Traders will receive the ISM non-manufacturing PMI later Tuesday, providing insights into inflation in the service sector, which accounts for a significant portion of the U.S. economy. It will be followed by July CPI and PPI releases later this week.

Read more: Bitcoin Still on Track for $140K This Year, But 2026 Will Be Painful: Elliott Wave Expert

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PEPE Price Sinks 6% Amid Market Sell-Off as Whales Accumulate

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Meme-inspired cryptocurrency PEPE has lost nearly 6% of its value in the last 24-hour period, sliding to a $0.0000107 low even as large investors accumulate.

Trading volumes for the cryptocurrency surged into the trillions of tokens amid the drop, as the token kept failing to find support amid the intense selling pressure. The drop came amid a wider crypto market drawdown, where the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index lost 1.8% of its value.

Memecoins were especially hard hit in the sell-off. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) dropped nearly 5% over the last 24 hours, while bitcoin saw a drop of 0.8%.

The drop comes just days after altcoin season speculation grew among cryptocurrency circles over the Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate cut later this week, which is expected to be a boon for risk assets.

Data from Nansen shows that over the past week, the top 100 non-exchange addresses holding PEPE on the Ethereum network have seen their holdings grow by 1.38% to 307.33 trillion tokens, while exchange wallets had a 1.45% drop in holdings to 254.4 trillion tokens.

Technical Analysis Overview

PEPE’s price action pointed to a market in retreat, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis data model. The token dropped from $0.000011484 to $0.000010782, with sellers dominating the chart.

Price peaked at $0.000011732 during a resistance test, but volume swelled to 5.5 trillion tokens at that level, before the market ultimately turned lower.

Support showed signs of buckling during the next phase, with the token brushing against $0.000010746. Trading activity intensified again, hitting 7.7 trillion tokens and reinforcing bearish sentiment.

The cryptocurrency’s price whipsawed within a 9% intraday range, a sign that traders remain unsure whether support levels are going to hold.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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Ether Bigger Beneficiary of Digital Asset Treasuries Than Bitcoin or Solana: StanChart

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Digital asset treasuries (DATs), publicly traded firms that hold crypto on their balance sheets, have been hit hard in recent weeks as their market NAVs (mNAVs) slid below 1, Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick said in a new report.

Looking ahead, ether (ETH) DATs appear to have the most staying power thanks to staking yield, regulatory clarity, and room to grow, argued Kendrick.

The mNAV ratio is crucial. When it falls, these firms lose the incentive (and sometimes the ability) to keep buying crypto, threatening a key source of demand for bitcoin (BTC), ether and solana (solana).

Kendrick said that the next phase for DATs will be one of differentiation. The winners will be those that can raise funds at the lowest cost, achieve scale that draws liquidity and investor attention, and, crucially, earn staking yield. That last point tilts the playing field toward ether and solana treasuries over bitcoin, which lacks yield.

Market saturation is also at play. Strategy’s success as the flagship BTC treasury has inspired a flood of copycats, nearly 90 at last count, who together now hold more than 150,000 BTC, up sixfold this year, the analyst noted.

But if mNAVs stay below 1, Standard Chartered expects consolidation. For BTC treasuries, that could mean firms like Saylor’s Strategy buying out rivals rather than buying new bitcoin on the open market, a coin rotation, not fresh demand.

Ether treasuries look better positioned. They have been aggressively accumulating, with 3.1% of ETH’s circulating supply purchased since June. The largest player, Bitmine (BMNR) is well-placed to keep adding to its 2 million ETH stack, the report said.

For crypto markets, this matters. DAT buying has been a key driver of bitcoin and ether prices in 2025. But with BTC treasuries facing consolidation pressure and solana treasuries still relatively small, Standard Chartered sees ETH as the likely beneficiary going forward.

Read more: Strategy’s S&P 500 Snub Is a Cautionary Signal for Corporate Bitcoin Treasuries: JPMorgan

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Ethereum Foundation Starts New AI Team to Support Agentic Payments

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The Ethereum Foundation (EF) is creating a dedicated artificial intelligence (AI) group to make Ethereum the settlement and coordination layer for what it calls the “machine economy,” according to research scientist Davide Crapis.

Crapis, who announced the initiative Monday on X, said the new dAI Team will pursue two priorities: enabling AI agents to pay and coordinate without intermediaries, and building a decentralized AI stack that avoids reliance on a small number of large companies. He said Ethereum’s neutrality, verifiability and censorship resistance make it a natural base layer for intelligent systems.

Ethereum Foundation background

The EF is a non-profit organization based in Zug, Switzerland, that funds and coordinates the development of the Ethereum blockchain. It does not control the network but plays a catalytic role by supporting researchers, developers and ecosystem projects.

Its remit includes funding upgrades such as Ethereum 2.0, zero-knowledge proofs and layer-2 scaling, alongside community programs like the Ecosystem Support Program. The foundation also organizes events such as Devcon to foster collaboration and acts as a policy advocate for blockchain adoption.

In 2025, EF restructured to handle Ethereum’s growth, emphasizing ecosystem acceleration, founder support and enterprise outreach. The new dAI Team represents a continuation of this shift toward specialized units addressing emerging technologies.

Crapis’s role

Crapis is a research scientist at the EF and will lead the new dAI Team. He said the group will connect its work with both the EF’s protocol group and its ecosystem support arm.

“Ethereum makes AI more trustworthy, and AI makes Ethereum more useful,” he wrote, adding that the team intends to fund public goods and projects at the intersection of AI and blockchains.

ERC-8004 and Trust Standards

The group will build on recent work around ERC-8004, a proposed Ethereum standard that Crapis described as a way to prove who an AI agent is and whether it can be trusted. By offering identity and reputation systems for autonomous agents, the standard is intended to allow coordination without centralized gatekeepers.

Crapis said the team will support new standards and upgrades as they emerge, guided by Ethereum’s values and the “d/acc” philosophy of decentralized acceleration. The goal, he explained, is to ensure AI development remains open and verifiable while giving humans greater agency over how intelligent systems interact with the economy.

Why it matters

For Ethereum, the move signals a growing ambition to anchor emerging technologies beyond finance.

If AI agents begin transacting at scale, demand could grow for settlement rails, reputation systems and standards that run natively on Ethereum. For the AI community, the initiative offers an alternative to centralized platforms that currently dominate AI infrastructure.

“The more intelligent agents transact, the more they need a neutral base layer for value and reputation,” Crapis said. “Ethereum benefits by becoming that layer and AI benefits by escaping lock-in to a few centralized platforms.”

The team has begun hiring and publishing resources, according to Crapis. He said EF intends to work “with purpose and urgency” to connect AI developers with the Ethereum ecosystem and to accelerate research at the boundary of the two fields.

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