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Bitcoin Tests Support Before Aiming Higher: Crypto Daybook Americas

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1 месяц ago

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

In the world of rock climbing, athletes don’t simply grab a new ledge and reach out for the next one. First, they put their full weight on the new ledge to ensure it’s solid before aiming higher.

Bitcoin (BTC) has followed a similar pattern since Friday’s U.S. jobs data, which triggered concerns of a recession in the world’s largest economy. The cryptocurrency’s price came under pressure, dropping almost to $111,965, testing support at the then-record high set in May, over the weekend. It recovered to trade recently around $114,700.

The decline resulted in roughly $670 million in losses on perpetual futures positions, of which over $550 million were long positions, according to Coinglass. The crowding out of the excess leverage could mean a more sustainable upswing in prices.

John Glover, the chief investment officer at Ledn, said he now expects BTC to rally to around $140,000 by year-end. 10x Research recently identified the $111,965 level as an attractive risk-reward entry point for traders. The price rebound suggests some may have followed that advice to join the bull run.

Canary Capital CEO Stephen McClurg argued that bitcoin is rapidly positioning itself as a turbocharged risk asset, aligned with Nasdaq trends, but with greater volatility. He called stablecoins digital cousins of money market funds.

On the macro front, the nonfarm payrolls data revealed a sharp slowdown in the labor market, reviving prospects of a Fed interest-rate cut in September. Still, with the expectations being spurred by economic pain, they may not necessarily bode well for risk assets. This week’s U.S. CPI and PPI inflation readings will help solidify the outlook.

Ryan Lee, the chief analyst at crypto exchange Bitget, said BTC is likely to consolidate around $112,000-$118,000 this week, supported by strong technicals and ether to trade in the $3,300-$3,800 range driven by ETF inflows and institutional interest.

«Rising ETH adoption and on-chain activity could fuel outperformance, but bitcoin’s dominance may cap significant altcoin gains unless broader market sentiment shifts further toward risk-on behavior,» Lee told CoinDesk in an email.

Speaking of ether, a whale conducted a large buy-the-dip operation over the weekend, snapping up millions in ETH in a sign of their long-term conviction.

In other news, Base now leads Solana in daily token introductions, driven by the rise of Zora’s Creator Coins, according to Dune Analytics. Lido, the liquid staking platform, laid off 15% of its workforce.

«While it may seem counterintuitive amid a market upswing, the move reflects a deliberate commitment to sustainable growth, operational focus, and alignment with the priorities of LDO tokenholders,» Lido DAO’s Vasiliy Shapovalov said on X.

In traditional markets, futures tied to the S&P 500 rose over 0.5% while the dollar index added 0.2%. Morgan Stanley called Friday’s dip in stocks a buy-the-dip opportunity. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto
    • Aug. 4: Solana Mobile begins worldwide shipping of its Seeker Web3 mobile device.
    • Aug. 15: Record date for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Customer Entitlement, Class 6 General Unsecured and Convenience Claims who meet pre-distribution requirements.
    • Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives will launch nano SOL and nano XRP U.S. perpetual-style futures.
  • Macro
    • Aug. 5, 2 p.m.: Uruguay’s National Institute of Statistics releases July inflation data.
      • Annual Inflation Rate Prev. 4.59%
    • Aug. 6: U.S. tariff of 50% kicks in on most Brazilian imports.
    • Aug. 6, 2 p.m.: Fed Governor Lisa D. Cook will deliver a speech titled “U.S. and Global Economy”. Livestream link.
    • Aug. 7: New U.S. reciprocal tariffs outlined in President Trump’s July 31 executive order become effective for a broad range of trading partners that did not secure deals by the Aug. 1 deadline. These tariffs range from 15% to 41%, depending on the country.
    • Aug. 8: Federal Reserve Governor Adriana D. Kugler’s resignation becomes effective, creating an early vacancy on the Board of Governors that allows President Trump to nominate a successor.
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • Aug. 4: Semler Scientific (SMLR), post-market, -$0.22
    • Aug. 5: Galaxy Digital (GLXY), pre-market, $0.19
    • Aug. 7: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.67
    • Aug. 7: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market
    • Aug. 7: CleanSpark (CLSK), post-market, $0.19
    • Aug. 7: Coincheck (CNCK), post-market
    • Aug. 7: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, -$0.08
    • Aug. 8: TeraWulf (WULF), pre-market, -$0.06
    • Aug. 11: Exodus Movement (EXOD), post-market
    • Aug. 12: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market
    • Aug. 12: Fold Holdings (FLD), post-market
    • Aug. 27: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $1.00

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
    • Compound DAO is voting to select its next Security Service Provider (SSP). Delegates are choosing between ChainSecurity & Certora and Cyfrin. Voting ends Aug. 5.
    • Balancer DAO is voting on creating “Balancer Business,” a for-profit BVI subsidiary of Balancer OpCo Ltd. This new legal entity would formalize protocol fee management and on-chain operations, replacing the current DAO multisig model. Voting ends Aug. 5.
    • Arbitrum DAO is voting to renew its partnership with Entropy Advisors for two more years starting September. The proposal includes $6 million in funding and 15 million ARB in incentives for Entropy to focus on treasury management, incentive design, data infrastructure and ecosystem growth. Voting ends Aug. 7.
    • BendDAO is voting on a plan to stabilize BEND by burning 50% of treasury tokens, restarting lender rewards and launching monthly buybacks using 20% of protocol revenue. Voting ends Aug. 10
  • Unlocks
    • Aug. 9: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating supply worth $12.30 million.
    • Aug. 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.73% of its circulating supply worth $48.18 million.
    • Aug. 15: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.39% of its circulating supply worth $36.65 million.
    • Aug. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.53% of its circulating supply worth $14.84 million.
    • Aug. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 0.96% of its circulating supply worth $15.80 million.
  • Token Launches
    • Aug. 4: Cycle Network (CYC) to be listed on Binance Alpha, Bitget, MEXC, KuCoin and others.
    • Aug. 5: Keeta (KTA) to be listed on Kraken.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through Aug. 31.

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • Base has surpassed Solana in daily token introductions, launching 54,341 on July 27, more than double Solana’s 25,460, according to Dune Analytics.
  • Daily launches on Base have skyrocketed from 6,649, driven by the integration of Zora and Farcaster into the rebranded Base App.
  • Zora posts are now instantly minted into ERC-20 tokens, each with a 1 billion supply and a Uniswap pool, with creators earning 1% of all trading fees in ZORA.
  • Farcaster’s decentralized social graph amplifies token distribution and engagement by letting users share and trade tokenized Zora posts across the network.
  • As of Aug. 2, Zora-powered launches made up 64.6% of all token launches across both Base and Solana, notching up 39,778 new Base tokens that day.
  • Solana, however, still dominates trading volume, especially via launchpads like Pump.fun and LetsBonk.
  • The surge positions Base as the new frontier for social token experiments, while Solana retains its edge in memecoin liquidity and market depth.

Derivatives Positioning

  • Futures open interest (OI) in most majors cryptocurrencies, including BTC and ETH, dropped slightly in the past 24 hours, indicating a lack of participation in the price recovery. XRP and SUI saw a small increase in OI.
  • BTC’s cumulative open interest has pulled back to 690K BTC from the high of 742K BTC on July 26. The ether market also cooled, with OI declining to 13.5M ETH from the record high of 15.3M on July 29.
  • On the CME, the annualized three-month basis in BTC and ETH futures dropped to around 6%-7% from the high of 10% last week.
  • On Deribit, short-tenor BTC and ETH puts trade at a premium to the spot price, reflecting persistent downside concerns.
  • Some traders have snapped up higher strike call options in the past 24 hours, positioning for a tactical rebound to new highs above $124K.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 0.19% from 4 p.m. ET Sunday at $114,393 (24hrs: +0.57%)
  • ETH is up 1.82% at $3,556.82 (24hrs: +2.38%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 1.40% at 3,766.02 (24hrs: +2.03%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 19 bps at 2.86%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0047% (5.185% annualized) on Binance

CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

  • DXY is down 0.30% at 98.85
  • Gold futures are up 0.32% at $3,410.80
  • Silver futures are up 0.94% at $37.28
  • Nikkei 225 closed down 1.25% at 40,290.70
  • Hang Seng closed up 0.92% at 24,733.45
  • FTSE is up 0.35% at 9,100.13
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.28% at 5,231.91
  • DJIA closed on Friday down 1.23% at 43,588.58
  • S&P 500 closed down 1.60% at 6,238.01
  • Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.24% at 20,650.13
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.88% at 27,020.43
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.39% at 2,553.89
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 1.9 bps at 4.239%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.64% at 6,304.75
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.76% at 23,057.75
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.65% at 43,995.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 61.98% (-0.32%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03105 (1.4%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 906 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $56.80
  • Total fees: 2.94 BTC / $334,645
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 138,445 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 34.0 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 9.63%

Technical Analysis

IBIT. (TradingView)

  • The chart shows daily price movements in BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF (IBIT) in a candlestick format.
  • The fund fell over 3% Friday, carving out a «bearish marubozu» candle. This pattern is identified by a prominent red body and little-to-no wicks, indicating seller dominance throughout the trading session.
  • The occurrence of this candlestick pattern is taken to represent more losses ahead.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Friday at $366.63 (-8.77%), +2.32% at $375.14 in pre-market.
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $314.69 (-16.7%), +1.98% at $320.91.
  • Circle (CRCL): closed at $168.1 (-8.4%), +1.78% at $171.16.
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $26.88 (-5.4%), +3.05% at $27.7.
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.5 (-3.61%), +2.19% at $15.84.
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.03 (-17.75%), +3.26% at $11.39.
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $12.65 (-6.57%), +1.90% at $12.89
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.44 (-8.18%), +2.59% at $10.71.
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $23.42 (-7.28%)
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $34.46 (-3.88%)
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $28.38 (-7.98%), +0.88% at $28.63
  • SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $17.14 (-8.88%), +5.89% at $18.15.

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$812.3 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $54.15 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.3 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$152.3 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $9.51 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~5.74 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Top 20 digital assets’ prices and volumes

Chart of the Day

On-chain perpetuals volume. (Artemis)

  • Cumualtive volume in on-chain crypto perpetual futures protocols hit a record high of $400 billion in July, with Hyperliquid accounting for over 70% of the tally.
  • The figures are a sign of growing investor interest in trading leveraged instruments on blockchain.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

Bitcoin is dipping again but the long-term picture hasn’t changed.SharpLink Gaming has acquired around $100 million worth of ETH over the last 2 days.The Satoshi Nakamoto Bitcoin statue in Lugano, Switzerland has disappeared.First-time and momentum Bitcoin $BTC buyers appear to be slowing down their accumulation.U.S. Banks are now sitting on $413 billion in unrealized losses as of Q1 2025

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XLM Sees Heavy Volatility as Institutional Selling Weighs on Price

Published

1 час ago

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15 сентября, 2025

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Stellar’s XLM token endured sharp swings over the past 24 hours, tumbling 3% as institutional selling pressure dominated order books. The asset declined from $0.39 to $0.38 between September 14 at 15:00 and September 15 at 14:00, with trading volumes peaking at 101.32 million—nearly triple its 24-hour average. The heaviest liquidation struck during the morning hours of September 15, when XLM collapsed from $0.395 to $0.376 within two hours, establishing $0.395 as firm resistance while tentative support formed near $0.375.

Despite the broader downtrend, intraday action highlighted moments of resilience. From 13:15 to 14:14 on September 15, XLM staged a brief recovery, jumping from $0.378 to a session high of $0.383 before closing the hour at $0.380. Trading volume surged above 10 million units during this window, with 3.45 million changing hands in a single minute as bulls attempted to push past resistance. While sellers capped momentum, the consolidation zone around $0.380–$0.381 now represents a potential support base.

Market dynamics suggest distribution patterns consistent with institutional profit-taking. The persistent supply overhead has reinforced resistance at $0.395, where repeated rally attempts have failed, while the emergence of support near $0.375 reflects opportunistic buying during liquidation waves. For traders, the $0.375–$0.395 band has become the key battleground that will define near-term direction.

XLM/USD (TradingView)

Technical Indicators
  • XLM retreated 3% from $0.39 to $0.38 during the previous 24-hours from 14 September 15:00 to 15 September 14:00.
  • Trading volume peaked at 101.32 million during the 08:00 hour, nearly triple the 24-hour average of 24.47 million.
  • Strong resistance established around $0.395 level during morning selloff.
  • Key support emerged near $0.375 where buying interest materialized.
  • Price range of $0.019 representing 5% volatility between peak and trough.
  • Recovery attempts reached $0.383 by 13:00 before encountering selling pressure.
  • Consolidation pattern formed around $0.380-$0.381 zone suggesting new support level.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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HBAR Tumbles 5% as Institutional Investors Trigger Mass Selloff

Published

2 часа ago

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15 сентября, 2025

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Hedera Hashgraph’s HBAR token endured steep losses over a volatile 24-hour window between September 14 and 15, falling 5% from $0.24 to $0.23. The token’s trading range expanded by $0.01 — a move often linked to outsized institutional activity — as heavy corporate selling overwhelmed support levels. The sharpest move came between 07:00 and 08:00 UTC on September 15, when concentrated liquidation drove prices lower after days of resistance around $0.24.

Institutional trading volumes surged during the session, with more than 126 million tokens changing hands on the morning of September 15 — nearly three times the norm for corporate flows. Market participants attributed the spike to portfolio rebalancing by large stakeholders, with enterprise adoption jitters and mounting regulatory scrutiny providing the backdrop for the selloff.

Recovery efforts briefly emerged during the final hour of trading, when corporate buyers tested the $0.24 level before retreating. Between 13:32 and 13:35 UTC, one accumulation push saw 2.47 million tokens deployed in an effort to establish a price floor. Still, buying momentum ultimately faltered, with HBAR settling back into support at $0.23.

The turbulence underscores the token’s vulnerability to institutional distribution events. Analysts point to the failed breakout above $0.24 as confirmation of fresh resistance, with $0.23 now serving as the critical support zone. The surge in volume suggests major corporate participants are repositioning ahead of regulatory shifts, leaving HBAR’s near-term outlook dependent on whether enterprise buyers can mount sustained defenses above key support.

HBAR/USD (TradingView)

Technical Indicators Summary
  • Corporate resistance levels crystallized at $0.24 where institutional selling pressure consistently overwhelmed enterprise buying interest across multiple trading sessions.
  • Institutional support structures emerged around $0.23 levels where corporate buying programs have systematically absorbed selling pressure from retail and smaller institutional participants.
  • The unprecedented trading volume surge to 126.38 million tokens during the 08:00 morning session reflects enterprise-scale distribution strategies that overwhelmed corporate demand across major trading platforms.
  • Subsequent institutional momentum proved unsustainable as systematic selling pressure resumed between 13:37-13:44, driving corporate participants back toward $0.23 support zones with sustained volumes exceeding 1 million tokens, indicating ongoing institutional distribution.
  • Final trading periods exhibited diminishing corporate activity with zero recorded volume between 13:13-14:14, suggesting institutional participants adopted defensive positioning strategies as HBAR consolidated at $0.23 amid enterprise uncertainty.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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Dogecoin Inches Closer to Wall Street With First Meme Coin ETF

Published

2 часа ago

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15 сентября, 2025

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The first exchange-traded fund (ETF) built around a meme coin could hit the market this week, after multiple delays and much speculation.

The DOGE ETF — formally called the Rex Shares-Osprey Dogecoin ETF (DOJE) — was originally slated to debut last week, alongside a handful of politically themed and crypto-related ETFs. Those included funds tied to Bonk (BONK), XRP, Bitcoin (BTC) and even a Trump-themed fund. But DOJE’s debut never materialized.

Now, Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart believe Wednesday is the most likely launch date, though they caution nothing is certain.

“It’s more likely than not,” Seyffart said. “That seems like the base case.”

Ahead of the introduction of the ETF, DOGE has been among the top performers over the past month, ahead 15% even including a decline of 3.5% over the past 24 horus.

If launched, DOJE would mark a milestone as the first U.S. ETF to focus on a meme coin — cryptocurrencies that generally lack utility or a clear economic purpose. These include tokens like Dogecoin, Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Bonk, which often surge in popularity thanks to internet culture, celebrity endorsements and speculative trading.

Balchunas described DOJE’s significance in a post on X: “First-ever US ETF to hold something that has no utility on purpose.”

DOJE is not a spot ETF. That means it won’t hold DOGE directly. Instead, the fund will use a Cayman Islands-based subsidiary to gain exposure through futures and other derivatives. This approach sidesteps the need for physical custody of the coin while still offering traders a way to bet on its performance within a traditional brokerage account.

The ETF was approved earlier this month under the Investment Company Act of 1940, which is typically used for mutual funds and diversified ETFs. That sets it apart from the wave of bitcoin ETFs that received green lights under the Securities Act of 1933, a framework used for commodity-based and asset-backed products. In short, DOJE is structured more like a mutual fund than a commodity trust.

More direct exposure may be coming soon. Several firms have filed applications to launch spot DOGE ETFs, which would hold the meme coin itself rather than derivatives. These applications are still under review by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which has grown more comfortable with crypto ETFs since approving a slate of bitcoin products in early 2024.

The broader crypto market has shown that investor demand can outweigh fundamental critiques. Meme coins have long drawn skepticism for having no underlying value or use case, but that hasn’t kept them from drawing billions in speculative capital.

Seyffart said the ETF market is likely to follow the same path. “There’s going to be a bunch of products like this, whether you love it or need it, they’re going to be coming to market,” he said.

He added that many existing financial products serve no deeper purpose than providing a vehicle for short-term bets. “There’s plenty of products out there that are just being used as gambling or short-term trading,” he said. “So if there’s an audience for this in the crypto world, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this finds an audience in the ETF and TradFi world.”

Whether the DOJE ETF opens the door to more meme coin funds — or just proves the concept is viable — may depend on how the market responds this week. Either way, it signals a new phase in the merging of internet culture and traditional finance.

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