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Bitcoin Slides as Rate-Cut Hopes Fade: Crypto Daybook Americas

Published

2 месяца ago

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By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The wind seems to be coming out of the crypto market’s sails. Bitcoin (BTC) fell 3% in the past 24 hours, dropping below $115,000, and it’s actually one of the better performing of the largest cryptocurrencies.

The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, a measure of the broader market, fell 6% with ether (ETH) down 5.7% after posting its strongest monthly gain in three years and XRP (XRP) losing more than 7%.

The drop comes as some of President Donald Trump’s tariffs started taking effect with more due to kick in on Aug. 7. The levies range from 10% to 41% on imports from key trading partners including Canada, the European Union and Japan.

That sent Asian equity markets to their worst week since April and fueled a rally in the U.S. dollar, sending the dollar index above 100 for the first time since May.

The tariffs also pushed up the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the core PCE, to 2.8% year-over-year in June. That increase has dampened hopes for a reduction in interest rates in September. Polymarket traders moved from a perceived 56% chance of a rate cut to now 38%. The CME’s FedWatch tool shows a 39% chance.

«For crypto, looser financial conditions would be a major tailwind,” said 21Shares strategist Matt Mena in an emailed statement.

Today’s nonfarm payrolls data could be decisive. The report is expected to the U.S. economy created 110,000 jobs last month.

Options traders are already seeking protection from further declines.

“We’re seeing increased short-term bearish positioning on BTC with capped upside strategies,” said Jake Ostrovskis, an OTC trader at Wintermute. “ETH options into late August are notably different, with positioning balanced to even outright bullish.”

If economic data points to higher rates for longer, traders may pivot toward assets that benefit from tighter conditions. A stronger dollar and higher interest rates could nudge investors toward yield-bearing stablecoins or transparent ETH-based vaults, given the GENIUS Act’s passage into law. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto
    • Aug. 1: The Helium Network (HNT), now running on Solana, undergoes its halving event, cutting annual new token issuance to 7.5 million HNT.
    • Aug. 1: Hong Kong’s Stablecoins Ordinance takes effect, introducing a licensing regime to regulate stablecoin activities in the city.
    • Aug. 1: New Bretton Woods Labs will launch BTCD, which it says is the first fully bitcoin-backed stablecoin, on the Elastos (ELA) mainnet, a decentralized blockchain secured by merged mining with bitcoin and overseen by the Elastos Foundation.
    • Aug. 4: Solana Mobile begins worldwide shipping of its Seeker Web3 mobile device.
    • Aug. 15: Record date for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Customer Entitlement, Class 6 General Unsecured and Convenience Claims who meet pre-distribution requirements.
    • Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives will launch nano SOL and nano XRP U.S. perpetual-style futures.
  • Macro
    • Aug. 1, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases July employment data.
      • Non Farm Payrolls Est. 110K vs. Prev. 147K
      • Unemployment Rate Est. 4.2% vs. Prev. 4.1%
      • Government Payrolls Prev. 73K
      • Manufacturing Payrolls Est. -3K vs. Prev. -7K
    • Aug. 1, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases July manufacturing and services data for Brazil.
      • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 48.3
    • Aug. 1, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases July manufacturing and services data for Canada.
      • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 45.6
    • Aug. 1, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (final) July manufacturing and services data for the U.S.
      • Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.5 vs. Prev. 52.9
    • Aug. 1, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases July U.S. services sector data.
      • Manufacturing PMI Est. Est. 49.5 vs. Prev. 49
    • Aug. 1, 10 a.m.: The University of Michigan releases (final) July U.S. consumer sentiment data.
      • Michigan Consumer Sentiment Est. 62 vs. Prev. 60.7
    • Aug. 1, 11 a.m.: S&P Global releases July manufacturing and services data for Mexico.
      • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 46.3
    • Aug. 1 p.m.: Peru’s National Institute of Statistics and Informatics releases July consumer price inflation data.
      • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.13%
      • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 1.69%
    • Aug. 6, 12:01 a.m.: A 50% U.S. tariff on most Brazilian imports, announced in President Trump’s July 30 executive order, goes into effect.
    • Aug. 7, 12:01 a.m.: U.S. reciprocal tariffs outlined in President Trump’s July 31 executive order become effective for a broad range of trading partners that did not secure deals by the Aug. 1 deadline. These tariffs range from 15% to 41%, depending on the country.
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • Aug. 4: Semler Scientific (SMLR), post-market, -$0.22
    • Aug. 5: Galaxy Digital (GLXY), pre-market, $0.19
    • Aug. 7: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.67
    • Aug. 7: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market
    • Aug. 7: CleanSpark (CLSK), post-market, $0.19
    • Aug. 7: Coincheck (CNCK), post-market
    • Aug. 7: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, -$0.08
    • Aug. 8: TeraWulf (WULF), pre-market, -$0.06
    • Aug. 11: Exodus Movement (EXOD), post-market
    • Aug. 12: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market
    • Aug. 12: Fold Holdings (FLD), post-market
    • Aug. 27: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $1.00

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
    • NEAR Protocol is voting on potentially reducing NEAR’s inflation from 5% to 2.5%. Two-thirds of validators must approve the proposal for it to pass and, if if it does, it could be implemented by late Q3. Voting ends Aug. 1.
    • Venus DAO is voting on a 12-month renewal with Chaos Labs for the BNB Chain deployment at a cost of $400,000, focused on expanding the Risk Oracle system for real-time, automated risk parameter updates. Voting ends Aug. 1.
    • Compound DAO is voting to select its next Security Service Provider (SSP). Delegates are choosing between ChainSecurity & Certora, and Cyfrin. Voting ends Aug. 5.
  • Unlocks
    • Aug. 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.64% of its circulating supply worth $23.36 million.
    • Aug. 9: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating supply worth $12.26 million.
    • Aug. 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.73% of its circulating supply worth $47.95 million.
    • Aug. 15: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.39% of its circulating supply worth $36.52 million.
    • Aug. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.53% of its circulating supply worth $14.42 million.
    • Aug. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 0.96% of its circulating supply worth $15.78 million.
  • Token Launches
    • Aug. 5: Keeta (KTA) to be listed on Kraken.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through Aug. 31.

Token Talk

By Francisco Rodrigues

  • The non-fungible token (NFT) market recovery is well underway with CryptoPunks, the dominant collection, seeing its floor price in dollar terms hit a three-year high, according to NFTPriceFloor.
  • The total market capitalization of NFTs has almost doubled to $6.4 billion in just a month, according to CoinGecko data.
  • The rally was led by the CryptoPunks, which rose 33.3% over the period. Other collections, such as the Pudgy Penguins, also helped.
  • CryptoPunks’ increase took it near 30% of the total market capitalization of the NFT sector. In ETH terms, the 52 ETH price is the highest in over a year.

Derivatives Positioning

  • The number of open contracts in CME bitcoin standard futures has dropped to 27,699, representing 138,495 BTC, the lowest since April.
  • The capital flight could be institutions preferring spot ETFs over futures or traders scaling back exposure as the dollar’s rally gathers speed.
  • Open interest in ether futures has fallen to 32,903 contracts from the recent high of 41,636. The ether contract is sized at 50 ETH.
  • BTC and ETH OI remains elevated near record highs in offshore perpetual futures, with funding rates receding to under 5%, a sign of weakening of bullish sentiment.
  • On Deribit, the market sentiment has shifted against ether, with downside insurance premiums costlier than for bitcoin.

Market Movements

  • BTC is down 1.32% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $114,962.47 (24hrs: -2.92%)
  • ETH is down 3.09% at $3,619.49 (24hrs: -5.94%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is down 3.26% at 3,764.26 (24hrs: -6.05%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged at 2.94%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0026% (2.8448% annualized) on Binance

CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

  • DXY is up 0.25% at 100.22
  • Gold futures are unchanged at $3,345.70
  • Silver futures are down 0.67% at $36.47
  • Nikkei 225 closed down 0.66% at 40,799.60
  • Hang Seng closed down 1.07% at 24,507.81
  • FTSE is down 0.40% at 9,096.56
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.36% at 5,319.92
  • DJIA closed on Thursday down 0.74% at 44,130.98
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.37% at 6,339.39
  • Nasdaq Composite closed unchanged at 21,122.45
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.40% at 27,259.78
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.71% at 2,563.84
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 3.6 bps at 4.396%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.94% at 6,314.25
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 1.03% at 23,125.00
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.91% at 43,900.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 61.98% (0.41%)
  • Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03150 (-1.38%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 904 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $57.21
  • Total Fees: 3.96 BTC / $468,378
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 138,495 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 34.8 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 9.85%

Technical Analysis

ETH/BTC. (TradingView)

  • The ether-bitcoin ratio’s daily chart shows a bearish divergence of the RSI. The pattern is marked by the indicator printing a lower high, decoupling from the rising price, and suggests a weakening of the bullish momentum.
  • In other words, ether could underperform bitcoin in the coming days.
  • The MACD histogram, a trend-following indicator, has also turned negative

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $401.86 (+1.73%), -4.2% at $385 at pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $377.76 (+0.07%), -11.15% at $335.65
  • Circle (CRCL): closed at $183.52 (-3.66%), -5.19% at $174
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $28.41 (-1.68%), -7.97% at $26.15
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.08 (-2.84%), -3.61% at $15.5
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.41 (-0.81%), -8.05% at $12.33
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $13.54 (+3.72%), -4.21% at $12.97
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.37 (-0.44%), -3.25% at $11
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $25.26 (+2.23%)
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $35.85 (-0.17%), -0.7% at $35.60
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $30.84 (+6.05%), -1.85% at $30.27
  • SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $18.81 (-3.83%), -6.11% at $17.66

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$114.8 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $54.97 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.3 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $17 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $9.66 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~5.73 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Top 20 digital assets’ prices and volumes

Chart of the Day

USDT: total on-chain transfer volume. (Glassnode)

  • The total amount of USDT transferred on-chain has risen to $52.9 billion, the highest since early 2022.
  • It shows that a slow but consistent recovery in stablecoin velocity and market activity, according to Glassnode.
  • The 2021 crypto bull market peak was marked by sharp spikes in USDT velocity.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

Global Banking institutions finally waking up to crypto!Look at that record monthly flow for iShares Ethereum ETF...The Rise of Digital Asset Treasury CompaniesPost on XU.S. Dollar will form a Death Cross

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XLM Sees Heavy Volatility as Institutional Selling Weighs on Price

Published

3 часа ago

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15 сентября, 2025

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Stellar’s XLM token endured sharp swings over the past 24 hours, tumbling 3% as institutional selling pressure dominated order books. The asset declined from $0.39 to $0.38 between September 14 at 15:00 and September 15 at 14:00, with trading volumes peaking at 101.32 million—nearly triple its 24-hour average. The heaviest liquidation struck during the morning hours of September 15, when XLM collapsed from $0.395 to $0.376 within two hours, establishing $0.395 as firm resistance while tentative support formed near $0.375.

Despite the broader downtrend, intraday action highlighted moments of resilience. From 13:15 to 14:14 on September 15, XLM staged a brief recovery, jumping from $0.378 to a session high of $0.383 before closing the hour at $0.380. Trading volume surged above 10 million units during this window, with 3.45 million changing hands in a single minute as bulls attempted to push past resistance. While sellers capped momentum, the consolidation zone around $0.380–$0.381 now represents a potential support base.

Market dynamics suggest distribution patterns consistent with institutional profit-taking. The persistent supply overhead has reinforced resistance at $0.395, where repeated rally attempts have failed, while the emergence of support near $0.375 reflects opportunistic buying during liquidation waves. For traders, the $0.375–$0.395 band has become the key battleground that will define near-term direction.

XLM/USD (TradingView)

Technical Indicators
  • XLM retreated 3% from $0.39 to $0.38 during the previous 24-hours from 14 September 15:00 to 15 September 14:00.
  • Trading volume peaked at 101.32 million during the 08:00 hour, nearly triple the 24-hour average of 24.47 million.
  • Strong resistance established around $0.395 level during morning selloff.
  • Key support emerged near $0.375 where buying interest materialized.
  • Price range of $0.019 representing 5% volatility between peak and trough.
  • Recovery attempts reached $0.383 by 13:00 before encountering selling pressure.
  • Consolidation pattern formed around $0.380-$0.381 zone suggesting new support level.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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HBAR Tumbles 5% as Institutional Investors Trigger Mass Selloff

Published

3 часа ago

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15 сентября, 2025

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Hedera Hashgraph’s HBAR token endured steep losses over a volatile 24-hour window between September 14 and 15, falling 5% from $0.24 to $0.23. The token’s trading range expanded by $0.01 — a move often linked to outsized institutional activity — as heavy corporate selling overwhelmed support levels. The sharpest move came between 07:00 and 08:00 UTC on September 15, when concentrated liquidation drove prices lower after days of resistance around $0.24.

Institutional trading volumes surged during the session, with more than 126 million tokens changing hands on the morning of September 15 — nearly three times the norm for corporate flows. Market participants attributed the spike to portfolio rebalancing by large stakeholders, with enterprise adoption jitters and mounting regulatory scrutiny providing the backdrop for the selloff.

Recovery efforts briefly emerged during the final hour of trading, when corporate buyers tested the $0.24 level before retreating. Between 13:32 and 13:35 UTC, one accumulation push saw 2.47 million tokens deployed in an effort to establish a price floor. Still, buying momentum ultimately faltered, with HBAR settling back into support at $0.23.

The turbulence underscores the token’s vulnerability to institutional distribution events. Analysts point to the failed breakout above $0.24 as confirmation of fresh resistance, with $0.23 now serving as the critical support zone. The surge in volume suggests major corporate participants are repositioning ahead of regulatory shifts, leaving HBAR’s near-term outlook dependent on whether enterprise buyers can mount sustained defenses above key support.

HBAR/USD (TradingView)

Technical Indicators Summary
  • Corporate resistance levels crystallized at $0.24 where institutional selling pressure consistently overwhelmed enterprise buying interest across multiple trading sessions.
  • Institutional support structures emerged around $0.23 levels where corporate buying programs have systematically absorbed selling pressure from retail and smaller institutional participants.
  • The unprecedented trading volume surge to 126.38 million tokens during the 08:00 morning session reflects enterprise-scale distribution strategies that overwhelmed corporate demand across major trading platforms.
  • Subsequent institutional momentum proved unsustainable as systematic selling pressure resumed between 13:37-13:44, driving corporate participants back toward $0.23 support zones with sustained volumes exceeding 1 million tokens, indicating ongoing institutional distribution.
  • Final trading periods exhibited diminishing corporate activity with zero recorded volume between 13:13-14:14, suggesting institutional participants adopted defensive positioning strategies as HBAR consolidated at $0.23 amid enterprise uncertainty.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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Dogecoin Inches Closer to Wall Street With First Meme Coin ETF

Published

4 часа ago

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15 сентября, 2025

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The first exchange-traded fund (ETF) built around a meme coin could hit the market this week, after multiple delays and much speculation.

The DOGE ETF — formally called the Rex Shares-Osprey Dogecoin ETF (DOJE) — was originally slated to debut last week, alongside a handful of politically themed and crypto-related ETFs. Those included funds tied to Bonk (BONK), XRP, Bitcoin (BTC) and even a Trump-themed fund. But DOJE’s debut never materialized.

Now, Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart believe Wednesday is the most likely launch date, though they caution nothing is certain.

“It’s more likely than not,” Seyffart said. “That seems like the base case.”

Ahead of the introduction of the ETF, DOGE has been among the top performers over the past month, ahead 15% even including a decline of 3.5% over the past 24 horus.

If launched, DOJE would mark a milestone as the first U.S. ETF to focus on a meme coin — cryptocurrencies that generally lack utility or a clear economic purpose. These include tokens like Dogecoin, Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Bonk, which often surge in popularity thanks to internet culture, celebrity endorsements and speculative trading.

Balchunas described DOJE’s significance in a post on X: “First-ever US ETF to hold something that has no utility on purpose.”

DOJE is not a spot ETF. That means it won’t hold DOGE directly. Instead, the fund will use a Cayman Islands-based subsidiary to gain exposure through futures and other derivatives. This approach sidesteps the need for physical custody of the coin while still offering traders a way to bet on its performance within a traditional brokerage account.

The ETF was approved earlier this month under the Investment Company Act of 1940, which is typically used for mutual funds and diversified ETFs. That sets it apart from the wave of bitcoin ETFs that received green lights under the Securities Act of 1933, a framework used for commodity-based and asset-backed products. In short, DOJE is structured more like a mutual fund than a commodity trust.

More direct exposure may be coming soon. Several firms have filed applications to launch spot DOGE ETFs, which would hold the meme coin itself rather than derivatives. These applications are still under review by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which has grown more comfortable with crypto ETFs since approving a slate of bitcoin products in early 2024.

The broader crypto market has shown that investor demand can outweigh fundamental critiques. Meme coins have long drawn skepticism for having no underlying value or use case, but that hasn’t kept them from drawing billions in speculative capital.

Seyffart said the ETF market is likely to follow the same path. “There’s going to be a bunch of products like this, whether you love it or need it, they’re going to be coming to market,” he said.

He added that many existing financial products serve no deeper purpose than providing a vehicle for short-term bets. “There’s plenty of products out there that are just being used as gambling or short-term trading,” he said. “So if there’s an audience for this in the crypto world, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this finds an audience in the ETF and TradFi world.”

Whether the DOJE ETF opens the door to more meme coin funds — or just proves the concept is viable — may depend on how the market responds this week. Either way, it signals a new phase in the merging of internet culture and traditional finance.

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