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Altcoin Rally Fizzles as Ether Turns 10: Crypto Daybook Americas

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2 месяца ago

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By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin (BTC) is holding its own as the broader crypto market declines in the run-up to today’s Federal Reserve monetary policy decision and a slew of data later this week.

The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) has fallen 1.6% in the past 24 hours, while bitcoin is unchanged around $118,300. Ether, which celebrates its 10th anniversary today, has lost about 0.8%, a sign of growing disillusion with altcoins (See Token Talk).

While the Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady — the CME’s FedWatch tool points to a 98% chance rates remain unchanged and Polymarket shows 97% odds of no change — there’s plenty of macroeconomic uncertainty in the pipeline, not least July unemployment data due Friday, which is also the deadline for President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, expected to affect at least two dozen countries.

Still, the Fed’s decision carries added weight amid political pressure from Trump to cut the rate and signs of dissent within the Fed’s board.

On a positive note for exchange-traded funds, the SEC approved in-kind redemptions for spot bitcoin and ether ETFs. That means authorized participants can swap ETF shares directly for crypto rather than needing to transact via cash, a decision that will ease volatility and smooth the transaction.

The shift comes as spot ETFs are booming. This month, total net inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs has exceeded $6 billion and into ether ETFs $5.4 billion, according to SoSoValue data. Spot ether ETFs are now in an 18-day inflow streak.

The Ethereum blockchain anniversary sees the network enjoying significant adoption as it adapts to innovations in the industry.

“With regulatory clarity, stablecoin rails, DeFi dominance, RWA applications and ETF flows converging, Ethereum isn’t chasing the next narrative — it’s aiming to become the institutional foundation that underwrites it,” Bitwise wrote in a report shared with CoinDesk.

The SEC’s move is the first major crypto-facing decision under its new chair, Paul Atkins, signaling a more open stance toward digital assets. Still, the market is caught between growing structural adoption and short-term macroeconomic jitters. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto
    • July 31, 12 p.m.: A live webinar featuring Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Bitzenship founder Aleesandro Palombo discussing bitcoin’s potential to become a global reserve currency amid dedollarization trends. Registration link.
    • Aug. 1: The Helium Network (HNT), now running on Solana, undergoes its halving event, cutting annual new token issuance to 7.5 million HNT.
    • Aug. 1: Hong Kong’s Stablecoins Ordinance takes effect, introducing a licensing regime to regulate stablecoin activities in the city.
    • Aug. 1: New Bretton Woods Labs will launch BTCD, which it says is the first fully bitcoin-backed stablecoin, on the Elastos (ELA) mainnet, a decentralized blockchain secured by merged mining with bitcoin and overseen by the Elastos Foundation.
    • Aug. 15: Record date for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Customer Entitlement, Class 6 General Unsecured and Convenience Claims who meet pre-distribution requirements.
    • Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives will launch nano SOL and nano XRP U.S. perpetual-style futures.
  • Macro
    • July 30, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases (preliminary) Q2 GDP growth data.
      • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 0.4% vs. Prev. 0.2%
      • GDP Growth Rate YoY Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.8%
    • July 30, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases (Advance Estimate) Q2 GDP data.
      • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 2.4% vs. Prev. -0.5%
      • GDP Price Index QoQ Est. 2.2% vs. Prev. 3.8%
      • GDP Sales QoQ Prev. -3.1%
      • PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 3.7%
      • Real Consumer Spending QoQ Prev. 0.5%
    • July 30, 9:45 a.m.: The Bank of Canada (BoC) announces its monetary policy decision and publishes the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. The press conference follows at 10:30 a.m. Livestream link.
      • Policy Interest Rate Est. 2.75% Prev. 2.75%
    • July 30, 1:30 p.m.: Uruguay’s National Statistics Institute releases June unemployment rate data.
      • Unemployment Rate Prev. 7.8%
    • July 30, 2 p.m.: The Federal Reserve announces its monetary policy decision. Federal funds rates are expected to remain unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%. Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference follows at 2:30 p.m.
    • July 30, 5:30 p.m.: Brazil’s central bank, Banco Central do Brasil, announces its monetary policy decision.
      • Selic Rate Est. 15% vs. Prev. 15%
    • July 31, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases June unemployment rate data.
      • Unemployment Rate Est. 6% vs. Prev. 6.2%
    • July 31, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases June consumer income and expenditure data.
      • Core PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%
      • Core PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.7% vs. Prev. 2.7%
      • PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.1%
      • PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.3%
      • Personal Income MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. -0.4%
      • Personal Spending MoM Est. 0.4% vs. Prev.-0.1%
    • July 31, 11 a.m.: Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) releases June unemployment rate data.
      • Unemployment Rate Est. 9.1% vs. Prev. 9%
    • July 31, 2 p.m.: Colombia’s central bank, Banco de la República (BanRep), releases its monetary policy decision..
      • Policy Rate Est. 9% vs. Prev. 9.25%
    • Aug. 1, 12:01 a.m.: New U.S. tariffs take effect on imports from trade partners that failed to reach agreements by this date. For most countries, the baseline tariff will be in the 15-20% range.
    • Aug. 1, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases July employment data.
      • Non Farm Payrolls Est. 110K vs. Prev. 147K
      • Unemployment Rate Est. 4.2% vs. Prev. 4.1%
      • Government Payrolls Prev. 73K
      • Manufacturing Payrolls Est. 0K vs. Prev. -7K
    • Aug. 1, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases July manufacturing and services data for Brazil.
      • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 48.3
    • Aug. 1, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases July manufacturing and services data for Canada.
      • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 45.6
    • Aug. 1, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (final) July manufacturing and services data for U.S.
      • Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.5 vs. Prev. 52.9
    • Aug. 1, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases July U.S. services sector data.
      • Manufacturing PMI Est. Est. 49.5 vs. Prev. 49
    • Aug. 1, 10 a.m.: The University of Michigan releases (final) July U.S. consumer sentiment data.
      • Michigan Consumer Sentiment Est. 61.8 vs. Prev. 60.7
    • Aug. 1, 11 a.m.: S&P Global releases July manufacturing and services data for Mexico.
      • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 46.3
    • Aug. 1 p.m.: Peru’s National Institute of Statistics and Informatics releases July consumer price inflation data.
      • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.13%
      • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 1.69%
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • July 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market, $0.31
    • July 31: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, $1.39
    • July 31: Reddit (RDDT), post-market, $0.19
    • July 31: Strategy (MSTR), post-market, -$0.10
    • July 31: Sequans Communications (SQNS), pre-market
    • Aug. 5: Galaxy Digital (GLXY), pre-market, $0.19
    • Aug. 4: Semler Scientific (SMLR), post-market, -$0.22
    • Aug. 7: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.67
    • Aug. 7: Coincheck (CNCK), post-market
    • Aug. 7: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, -$0.08
    • Aug. 8: TeraWulf (WULF), pre-market, -$0.06
    • Aug. 27: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $1.00

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
  • Unlocks
    • July 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply worth $22.1 million.
    • Aug. 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 1.27% of its circulating supply worth $166.3 million.
    • Aug. 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.64% of its circulating supply worth $23.35 million.
    • Aug. 9: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating supply worth $13.51 million.
    • Aug. 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.73% of its circulating supply worth $51.12 million.
  • Token Launches
    • July 31: PlaysOut (PLAY) to be listed on Binance Alpha, MEXC, and others.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through Aug. 31.

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

  • The crypto market went through the long-awaited «altcoin season» last week, with bitcoin’s consolidation leading to capital rotation into the more speculative altcoin market.
  • In previous cycles these periods of dramatic upside for altcoins lasted weeks, even months. This time, though, it seems to have lasted just a few days before the market shed its newfound gains.
  • In the past seven days the likes of FLOKI, FAR and WIF have all lost more than 20% and double digit declines are present across the board.
  • CoinMarketCap’s altcoin season indicator has returned back to levels seen during the first half of the year, indicating that the outlook for altcoins is bleak because much of the institutional attention is on bitcoin.
  • However, if BTC can break out of its current range and form a new record high above, say, $130,000, before entering a period of consolidation, that changes the narrative. Such a movement lays the groundworks for a repeat of last week’s short, but exciting, altcoin season.

Derivatives Positioning

  • BTC, SOl, ETH and XRP futures open interest has dropped in the past 24 hours with the crypto market witnessing some $300 million of liquidations.
  • Annualized funding rates in BTC and DOGE remain elevated relative to other major coins near 10%, pointing to pronounced bullish sentiment in these markets.
  • The top 25 tokens by market value have seen net selling pressure, as evidenced by the negative open interest-adjusted cumulative volume deltas.
  • On Deribit, BTC short-term puts traded at a slight premium while ETH options showed call bias across all tenors.
  • Block flows over Paradigm featured butterfly strategies and risk reversals in BTC.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 0.23% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $117,740.73 (24hrs: +0.00%)
  • ETH is up 0.28% at $3,774.875 (24hrs: -0.89%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 0.28% at 3,961.08 (24hrs: -1.38%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 3 bps at 2.93%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.002% (2.19% annualized) on KuCoin

CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

  • DXY is unchanged at 98.82
  • Gold futures are up 0.12% at $3,385.20
  • Silver futures are down 0.26% at $38.19
  • Nikkei 225 closed unchanged at 40,654.70
  • Hang Seng closed down 1.36% at 25,176.93
  • FTSE is down 0.21% at 9,117.40
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.22% at 5,391.08
  • DJIA closed on Tuesday down 0.46% at 44,632.99
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.30% at 6,370.86
  • Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.38% at 21,098.29
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.49% at 27,539.88
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.02$ at 2,599.74
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is unchanged at 4.332%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,409.25
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.12% at 23,481.00
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 44,808.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 61.65% (0.28%)
  • Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03214 (-0.12%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 896 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $58.88
  • Total Fees: 5.07 BTC / $599,372
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 140,340 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 35.5 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 10.04%

Technical Analysis

Gold. (TradingView)

  • Gold has put in fourth straight monthly candle with a long upper shadow (wick), marking bull failure above $3,400.
  • The repeated rejection above $3,400 calls for reassessment of the bullish view and signals potential for a price pullback.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $394.66 (-2.26%), +3.03% at $406.60 in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $371.44 (-2.12%), +3.19% at $383.30
  • Circle (CRCL): closed at $181.64 (-2.01%), +3.15% at $187.36
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $26.76 (-9.59%), +9.39% at $29.27
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.61 (-3.21%), +3.25% at $17.15
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.6 (-6.27%), +6.4% at $14.47
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $13.19 (-4.04%), +4.32% at $13.76
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.73 (-2.49%), +2.64% at $12.04
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $24.91 (-4.67%), +4.05% at $25.92
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $36.6 (-6.75%), +7.92% at $39.50
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $31.63 (-4.76%), +8.13% at $34.20
  • SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $19.08 (-8.82%), -0.1% at $19.06

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $80 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $55.03 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.3 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $218.6 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $9.64 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~5.67 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Top 20 digital assets’ prices and volumes

Chart of the Day

Bitcoin: daily active addresses vs price on monthly basis. (Artemis)

  • While BTC’s price hit record highs in July, active addresses held well below the peak in September.
  • The discrepancy shows that the price rally is mainly driven by corporate treasury adoption and not on-chain activity.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

Scammer's playbookStrategy has acquired 21,021 BTC for ~$2.46 billion at ~$117,256 per bitcoinLooks like SEC just approved in-kind creation / redemption for all spot bitcoin and ether ETFs.The share of Bitcoin-dollar trades, the dominant global trading pair, taking place during US hours has jumped to 57.3% from 41.4% in 2021Investors have now plowed $139 Billion into Leveraged ETFs

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Wall Street Bank Citigroup Sees Ether Falling to $4,300 by Year-End

Published

40 минут ago

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15 сентября, 2025

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Wall Street giant Citigroup (C) has launched new ether (ETH) forecasts, calling for $4,300 by year-end, which would be a decline from the current $4,515.

That’s the base case though. The bank’s full assessment is wide enough to drive an army regiment through, with the bull case being $6,400 and the bear case $2,200.

The bank analysts said network activity remains the key driver of ether’s value, but much of the recent growth has been on layer-2s, where value “pass-through” to Ethereum’s base layer is unclear.

Citi assumes just 30% of layer-2 activity contributes to ether’s valuation, putting current prices above its activity-based model, likely due to strong inflows and excitement around tokenization and stablecoins.

A layer 1 network is the base layer, or the underlying infrastructure of a blockchain. Layer 2 refers to a set of off-chain systems or separate blockchains built on top of layer 1s.

Exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, though smaller than bitcoin’s (BTC), have a bigger price impact per dollar, but Citi expects them to remain limited given ether’s smaller market cap and lower visibility with new investors.

Macro factors are seen adding only modest support. With equities already near the bank’s S&P 500 6,600 target, the analysts do not expect major upside from risk assets.

Read more: Ether Bigger Beneficiary of Digital Asset Treasuries Than Bitcoin or Solana: StanChart

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XLM Sees Heavy Volatility as Institutional Selling Weighs on Price

Published

5 часов ago

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15 сентября, 2025

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Stellar’s XLM token endured sharp swings over the past 24 hours, tumbling 3% as institutional selling pressure dominated order books. The asset declined from $0.39 to $0.38 between September 14 at 15:00 and September 15 at 14:00, with trading volumes peaking at 101.32 million—nearly triple its 24-hour average. The heaviest liquidation struck during the morning hours of September 15, when XLM collapsed from $0.395 to $0.376 within two hours, establishing $0.395 as firm resistance while tentative support formed near $0.375.

Despite the broader downtrend, intraday action highlighted moments of resilience. From 13:15 to 14:14 on September 15, XLM staged a brief recovery, jumping from $0.378 to a session high of $0.383 before closing the hour at $0.380. Trading volume surged above 10 million units during this window, with 3.45 million changing hands in a single minute as bulls attempted to push past resistance. While sellers capped momentum, the consolidation zone around $0.380–$0.381 now represents a potential support base.

Market dynamics suggest distribution patterns consistent with institutional profit-taking. The persistent supply overhead has reinforced resistance at $0.395, where repeated rally attempts have failed, while the emergence of support near $0.375 reflects opportunistic buying during liquidation waves. For traders, the $0.375–$0.395 band has become the key battleground that will define near-term direction.

XLM/USD (TradingView)

Technical Indicators
  • XLM retreated 3% from $0.39 to $0.38 during the previous 24-hours from 14 September 15:00 to 15 September 14:00.
  • Trading volume peaked at 101.32 million during the 08:00 hour, nearly triple the 24-hour average of 24.47 million.
  • Strong resistance established around $0.395 level during morning selloff.
  • Key support emerged near $0.375 where buying interest materialized.
  • Price range of $0.019 representing 5% volatility between peak and trough.
  • Recovery attempts reached $0.383 by 13:00 before encountering selling pressure.
  • Consolidation pattern formed around $0.380-$0.381 zone suggesting new support level.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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HBAR Tumbles 5% as Institutional Investors Trigger Mass Selloff

Published

5 часов ago

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15 сентября, 2025

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Hedera Hashgraph’s HBAR token endured steep losses over a volatile 24-hour window between September 14 and 15, falling 5% from $0.24 to $0.23. The token’s trading range expanded by $0.01 — a move often linked to outsized institutional activity — as heavy corporate selling overwhelmed support levels. The sharpest move came between 07:00 and 08:00 UTC on September 15, when concentrated liquidation drove prices lower after days of resistance around $0.24.

Institutional trading volumes surged during the session, with more than 126 million tokens changing hands on the morning of September 15 — nearly three times the norm for corporate flows. Market participants attributed the spike to portfolio rebalancing by large stakeholders, with enterprise adoption jitters and mounting regulatory scrutiny providing the backdrop for the selloff.

Recovery efforts briefly emerged during the final hour of trading, when corporate buyers tested the $0.24 level before retreating. Between 13:32 and 13:35 UTC, one accumulation push saw 2.47 million tokens deployed in an effort to establish a price floor. Still, buying momentum ultimately faltered, with HBAR settling back into support at $0.23.

The turbulence underscores the token’s vulnerability to institutional distribution events. Analysts point to the failed breakout above $0.24 as confirmation of fresh resistance, with $0.23 now serving as the critical support zone. The surge in volume suggests major corporate participants are repositioning ahead of regulatory shifts, leaving HBAR’s near-term outlook dependent on whether enterprise buyers can mount sustained defenses above key support.

HBAR/USD (TradingView)

Technical Indicators Summary
  • Corporate resistance levels crystallized at $0.24 where institutional selling pressure consistently overwhelmed enterprise buying interest across multiple trading sessions.
  • Institutional support structures emerged around $0.23 levels where corporate buying programs have systematically absorbed selling pressure from retail and smaller institutional participants.
  • The unprecedented trading volume surge to 126.38 million tokens during the 08:00 morning session reflects enterprise-scale distribution strategies that overwhelmed corporate demand across major trading platforms.
  • Subsequent institutional momentum proved unsustainable as systematic selling pressure resumed between 13:37-13:44, driving corporate participants back toward $0.23 support zones with sustained volumes exceeding 1 million tokens, indicating ongoing institutional distribution.
  • Final trading periods exhibited diminishing corporate activity with zero recorded volume between 13:13-14:14, suggesting institutional participants adopted defensive positioning strategies as HBAR consolidated at $0.23 amid enterprise uncertainty.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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