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Bitcoin, XRP Open Interest Nears Record High as Bull Market Pullback Unfolds

This is a daily analysis of top tokens with CME futures by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.
Bitcoin: Bull Market Pullback Underway
The bitcoin (BTC) market rally has stalled in the past 24 hours as expected, but instead of consolidation, prices have pulled back over 5% to $116,800 from record highs in a move typical of a bull market pullback. Reports suggest that profit-taking by long-term holders is weighing on the cryptocurrency’s price.
It’s common for markets to revisit breakout points, in this case, the May 22 high of around $111,960, and test the underlying buying interest before chalking out bigger rallies. A similar dynamic played out earlier this year as prices dropped from over $100,000 of $75,000, revisiting the breakout point from late 2024.
From a technical analysis perspective, the broader bullish bias will prevail while prices remain locked in the ascending channel on the daily chart. Over the next 24 hours, the focus will be on the hourly chart, which shows a steep corrective trend lower, with prices trading below the Ichimoku cloud to suggest bearish momentum.
However, the RSI on the hourly chart has dropped below 30, indicating an oversold condition – a stark contrast to the above-70 or overbought reading seen a day ago. So, a bounce cannot be ruled out. The probability of a pullback to $111,960 would weaken if the potential recovery ends the downward-trending channel. Such a move will likely result in fresh record highs.
Open interest nears record high
Volatility could remain high as cumulative open interest in onshore and offshore futures and offshore perpetual futures has increased to 734.82K BTC, which is just shy of the record 744K BTC in October 2022, according to data source CoinGecko.
The growth in open interest is likely being led by offshore exchanges as the number of active contracts on the CME remains below the May high, with the three-month annualized basis still below 10%. Conversely, annualized funding rates on offshore perpetuals have topped 11%, indicating a growing demand for the bullish exposure.
MOVE Index turns higher
The MOVE index, which gauges 30-day implied volatility in U.S. Treasury notes, has rebounded from a critical level that has consistently foreshadowed sharp spikes in market volatility since 2024.
That’s a cause for concern for the bulls because volatility spikes in the Treasury market tend to lead to financial tightening, a risk-off development. Moreover, since 2024, bottoms in MOVE have marked interim BTC price tops.
Watch out for the history to repeat itself, leading to a deeper BTC bull market pullback.
- AI’s take: Bitcoin’s 5% pullback is a healthy bull market feature, aiming to retest the key breakout level of $111,960 before potentially initiating a stronger rally.
- Resistance: $118,000-118,500, $120,000, $123,181
- Support: $113,688 (the 38.2% Fib retracement of the rally from June 22 lows), $111,965, $107,823 (the 61.8% Fib)
XRP: Holds 100-hour MA and cloud support
XRP (XRP) has dropped from $3 and appears to be trapped in a downward-trending channel on the hourly chart, mirroring BTC. Still, XRP appears relatively better off, holding the confluence of the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) and the Ichimoku cloud at $2.81.
A breakout from here would imply an end to the correction and resumption of the broader uptrend toward the yearly peak of $3.4. On the way higher, bulls will likely be tested again at around $3.
Watch out for the move below the Ichimoku cloud, as that would strengthen the immediate bear case, shifting focus to the 200-hour SMA at $2.6.
Again, volatility could be elevated with perpetual futures open interest hitting a record high of 2.74 billion XRP, according to Coinglass. The annualized XRP funding rates hover at 15%, indicating a growing bias for leveraged bullish plays.
- AI’s take: Despite XRP’s hourly chart showing a BTC-mirroring downtrend from $3, its strong hold above the 100-hour SMA and Ichimoku cloud at $2.81 signals underlying support. Record perpetual futures open interest and high funding rates indicate significant leveraged bullish demand, making a breakout above $3, towards $3.4, likely if current support holds.
- Resistance: $3, $3.4
- Support: $2.81, $2.6-$2.65, $2.38
ETH: Awaiting breakout
Ether (ETH) remains trapped in an expanding triangle, with the daily stochastic flashing an overbought reading, pointing to stretched upward momentum, which weakens the case for a firm breakout in the short term. A consolidation around the resistance looks likely as prices are firmly above the Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart and short-term SMAs point north, indicating a bullish bias. An eventual breakout would shift focus to $3,400, a level targeted by options traders.
- AI’s take: The daily stochastic being overbought indicates that momentum is stretched, making a convincing push above the upper trendline unlikely in the short term.
- Resistance: $3,067 (the 61.8% Fib retracement), $3,500, $3,570, $4,000.
- Support: $2,905, $2,880, $2,739, $2,600
SOL: $168 is the new resistance level
SOL’s upside remains elusive despite the dual breakout on the daily chart. Since Friday, the bulls have failed at least twice to chew through bearish pressures at around $168, as evidenced by the long upper wicks attached to the candles for Monday and Friday. So, a break above $168 is now needed to confirm bullishness.
On the downside, $157 is the level to watch as it marks the neckline support of the double top pattern on the hourly chart. A breakdown of the support line would imply potential for a deeper decline to $146, per the measured move method.
- AI’s take: Traders should watch for a definitive break above $168 to confirm bullish continuation; otherwise, a loss of the $157 neckline support could trigger a deeper decline towards $146.
- Resistance: $168, $180-$190, $200.
- Support: $157, $145, $125.
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Strategy’s Convertible Bond Prices Surge as Stock Advances Back Toward Record High

Disclaimer: The analyst who wrote this article owns shares in Strategy.
Strategy’s (MSTR) aggressive bitcoin BTC acquisition strategy has dramatically boosted the value of its convertible debt.
With bitcoin steady near its record price and the company’s shares rebounding toward $450, five of the six bonds outstanding are deep in the money, meaning the stock price exceeds their conversion prices. Only the 2029 note, with a high $672.40 conversion price, remains out of reach.
The Tysons Corner, Virginia-based company issued convertible notes totaling $8.2 billion in notional principal with ultra-low average coupons of just 0.421%. The bonds, which mature between 2028 and 2032, carry a set price based on MSTR and BTC levels at the time of issues at which the debt can turn into the common stock.
MSTR stock has rebounded from as low as $235 three months ago and is within sight of late last year’s $543 record. The rally has pushed the bonds’ market value to $13.4 billion, roughly $5.2 billion above their notional value. The premium reflects how much investors are willing to pay in secondary markets, driven by the bonds’ potential to convert into valuable equity.
Of late, however, Strategy has paused issuing new convertible notes. That may be due to more cautious sentiment as reflected in the options market.
As of July 15, MSTR’s implied volatility sits at 53.1%, well below past highs above 200%. Implied volatility is an indication of how much the options traders believes the stock will move in the future based on their market positioning.
Open interest remains healthy at over 2.4 million contracts, but both the open interest put-call ratio (0.93) and the volume put-call ratio (0.62) indicate neutral sentiment, suggesting traders are not aggressively betting on a major surge in the stock. A put is a cautious position that offers protection against price declines in the underlying asset while a call is a bullish instrument that allows traders to profit when the price rises.
Additionally, trading volume is just 20% of its 30-day average, hinting at reduced speculative interest.
This muted options activity implies that while MSTR’s price is high enough to put five of the six convertible bonds deep in the money, there may not be the same frothy market enthusiasm that allowed the company to issue convertibles at ultra-low coupons and favorable terms.
Investors might demand higher yields or lower conversion prices for any new issuance, which could dilute existing shareholders sooner.
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Crypto Exchange BigONE Confirms $27M Hack, Vows Full User Compensation

Crypto exchange BigONE has confirmed a $27 million breach stemming from a hot wallet exploit on July 16 and states that all user funds will be fully reimbursed.
In an official statement, the exchange said it detected “abnormal movements” tied to a third-party attack and has since identified and contained the vector. All private keys remain secure, and no additional losses are expected.
BigONE is working with blockchain security firm SlowMist to track the stolen assets, with fund tracing already underway across Bitcoin, ethereum, Tron, Solana, and BNB Chain, per a release.
What Was Stolen?
The stolen tokens span across major and minor assets, including:
- 120 BTC
- 350 ETH
- 9.5B SHIB
- 7.1M USDT (multi-chain)
- 538,000 DOGE
- 1,800 SOL
- 1 WBTC
- 20,730 XIN
- 15.7M CELR
- 25,487 UNI
- 16,071 LEO
BigONE said user balances are safe, and all losses will be covered in full using a combination of internal reserves (BTC, ETH, SOL, USDT, XIN) and external borrowing to restore liquidity for niche tokens.
Deposits and trading are expected to resume within hours, but withdrawals will be delayed until further security reinforcements are complete.
“We sincerely apologize for the impact this incident may have caused,” the team wrote. “All investigation progress and handling results will be communicated with full transparency.”
The incident marks yet another major exchange hack in 2025, pushing total crypto exploit losses beyond $2.1 billion for the year.
Read more: Crypto Investors Lost $2.5B to Hacks and Scams in the First Half of 2025: Certik
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Bitlayer’s BitVM Bridge Debuts Its Mainnet, Offers Trust-Minimized Bitcoin DeFi

Bitlayer’s BitVM Bridge launched its mainnet on Wednesday, enabling bitcoin (BTC) liquidity for decentralized finance through a trust-minimized framework.
The bridge keeps users’ BTC safe by locking it in the BitVM smart contract that operates under the assumption that at least one honest market participant exists, ready to expose malicious attempts to move funds.
This trust-minimized setup starkly contrasts traditional custodians that involve centralized custody or distributed custodianship.
«Over the past year, we’ve dedicated significant resources to developing the BitVM bridge, and we’re thrilled to finally deliver this milestone to the community,» Bitlayer co-founder, Kevin He said in a press release shared with CoinDesk.
«Post-mainnet deployment, our focus shifts to scaling asset compatibility and deepening integration with additional blockchain networks,» He added.
YBTC, a gateway to BTC DeFi
Central to Bitlayer is YBTC, a token that directly represents the user’s locked bitcoin. Its value is pegged 1:1 with BTC, and it opens decentralized finance to BTC holders looking to generate additional yield by allowing them to stake, lend, borrow, trade and provide liquidity across multi-chain decentralized exchanges.
The token’s security stems directly from the transparent and verifiable BitVM smart contract – unlike wrapped BTC (such as WBTC), which relies on a trusted central entity to hold the actual BTC.
Note that YBTC is distinct from Bitlayer’s native token, BTR, which is used for governance, fees and staking within the ecosystem and is slated to be listed on major centralized exchanges.
Front-and-reclaim model
Typically, eliminating centralized custodians implies longer waiting times, especially in the case of fraud-proof systems like Bitlayer. Here, while transactions are assumed to be honest, anyone watching can step in to prove if something went wrong.
To allow enough time for these crucial security checks, there’s a built-in waiting period, typically seven days, during which a fraudulent transaction could be challenged. This can lead to longer withdrawal times.
However, Bitlayer employs an innovative «front-and-reclaim» model, transferring the waiting period to specialized brokers or third-party liquidity providers. These entities provide the withdrawn BTC from their own funds to users within approximately one hour. Meanwhile, they wait for their original seven-day security period to end before getting their funds back from the smart contract.
This approach offers both trustless security and a fast, convenient user experience.
«There is a front mechanism in BitVM bridge design, the pegout user will get their BTC back at bitcoin block time,» He told CoinDesk. «The waiting time will be left to the broker(operator).»
Expansive ecosystem
Bitlayer is prioritizing integration with the Ethereum mainnet and major layer 2 solutions, as well as exploring Solana and Bitcoin-native layer 2s, such as Lightning Network applications. It has already secured integration with other leading ecosystems, including Sui, Base, Starknet, and Arbitrum, Sonic, Plume Network and Sundial.
«Our goal is to make YBTC universally accessible wherever significant DeFi liquidity exists, enabling bitcoin to flow securely and seamlessly into diverse ecosystems,» BitLayer’s team told CoinDesk.
The team added that it plans to establish a security committee, release audit reports and conduct bug bounties and open-source their code, creating a roadmap that positions BitLayer’s BitVM Bridge as a crucial piece of infrastructure for BTC’s future in DeFi.
Read more: Bitlayer Joins Forces With Antpool, F2Pool, and SpiderPool to Supercharge Bitcoin DeFi
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