Those betting against bitcoin (BTC)-holder MicroStrategy (MSTR) seem to have run out of patience and look to be exiting bearish bets.

On Monday, a U.S.-listed exchange-traded fund (ETF) that provides a leveraged bearish exposure to shares of bitcoin holder MicroStrategy sank to lifetime lows on the back of near-record trading activity.

Prices for the Defiance daily target 2x short MSTR ETF, listed under the ticker SMST on Nasdaq, slipped 7.58% to $18.17 on Monday, hitting a record low for the fourth consecutive day, according to data source TradingView.

The decline happened as 2.88 million shares changed hands, the second-largest trading volume tally ever.

Bears capitulate as BTC surges

SMST’s high-volume collapse points to capitulation of bears – those betting against MSTR have likely given up and are exiting the market.

A high-volume record low typically indicates capitulation – market participants surrendering to the relentless bearish trend and exiting all their positions, giving up all hope of a recovery. This type of price action often marks peak bearishness in the market or bottoms.

Bitcoin’s price tapped record highs above $122,000 during Monday’s Asian trading hours, providing bullish cues to all things tied to crypto. Later in the day, shares in MSTR rose over 3% to $456, the highest since November.

Leveraged bearish bet

The 2x short ETF seeks to deliver daily investment results that are -200%, or minus 2x, the daily percentage change in the MSTR share price. In other words, it’s a leveraged bearish bet.

The ETF’s price, however, has collapsed from over $2,000 on the inception day in August last year, and has been primarily in a downtrend, barring the brief uptrend from $1,600 to $2,368 in late August last year. As of Friday, the fund had a net inflow of $8.2 million in six months, according to VettaFi.

MSTR’s share price has increased multi-fold from $100 to over $440 during the same time. MicroStrategy is the largest publicly-listed bitcoin holder in the world, boasting a coin stash of 601,550 BTC ($70.56 million) as of writing.

2x long MSTR ETF rises

The Defiance daily target 2x long MSTR ETF rose to nearly $50 on Monday, the highest since January 24, with trading volumes rising for the fourth straight day to tally 9.2 million.

As of Friday, MSTX had a net six-month outflow of over $175 million, per VettaFi.

Read more: Anti-Bitcoin Vanguard Might Be the Largest Institutional Holder of MSTR Stock

What to know:

• XRP fell 8% from $3.02 to $2.78 between July 14 06:00 and July 15 05:00, posting a 7% intraday range between $2.80 and $3.02.
• Morning volume peaked at 216.12M during a coordinated push to $3.02, before systematic profit-taking set in.
• A late-session recovery from $2.82 to $2.87 (+2%) occurred during the 04:09–05:08 window, with 112.75M in volume — indicating corporate re-entry into support.
• The drawdown aligns with institutional de-risking ahead of the July 18 ProShares XRP Futures ETF launch.

News Background
The SEC’s still-unresolved digital asset framework continues to dominate institutional risk models, forcing treasuries to balance early exposure with compliance optics.
The upcoming ProShares XRP Futures ETF — set for launch on July 18 — has introduced a new capital allocation vector, particularly for pension and endowment portfolios.
Amid that setup, corporate flows spiked in both directions: buying early at $2.95–$3.02, and selling heavily overnight as risk management protocols kicked in.

Price Action Summary

• Range: $3.02 → $2.80 | Volatility: 7%
• Peak Time: 13:00 — volume hit 216.12M as XRP touched $3.02
• Breakdown Zone: $2.95–$2.90 failed to hold during 00:00–03:00 session
• Final Hour Recovery: XRP rose from $2.82 → $2.87 (+2%) from 04:09–05:08
• Volume Support: 112.75M confirms corporate reallocation near $2.87

Technical Analysis

• Price failed at $3.02 on heavy volume; structure turned bearish on lower highs
• Overnight breakdown saw algorithmic selling from $2.95 to $2.80
• Recovery into close suggests corporate treasury accumulation at $2.82–$2.87
• $3.00 remains the psychological resistance that bulls must reclaim
• Key levels: Support = $2.80 / Resistance = $2.95–$3.02

What Traders Are Watching

• Can XRP hold above $2.87 ahead of the ProShares launch and ETF-related flows?
• Reclaiming $3.00 would validate bullish institutional theses tied to payment utility
• Ongoing regulatory noise could suppress upside until ETF flow clarity emerges
• Treasury desks remain cautious but active — favoring low-exposure accumulation around volatility bands

Takeaway
XRP’s 8% drop reflects more than volatility — it’s corporate positioning in real-time.
While whales and treasuries sold into strength above $3.00, the closing bounce and ETF timeline suggest re-entry setups are forming.

If regulatory clarity firms and the ProShares vehicle gains traction, XRP may see renewed inflows — but until then, expect tight risk-managed trading from institutions.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

What to know:

• DOGE dropped 9.52% between July 14 05:00 and July 15 04:00, falling from $0.21 to $0.19 with a $0.022 trading range (10.44% volatility).
• Major selloffs occurred during the 14:00–15:00 and 01:00–03:00 windows, with volume spikes of 735.09M and 704.60M, crushing the 24-hour average of 415.48M.
• A sharp reversal began during the final session hour as DOGE rose 0.84%, from $0.1923 to $0.1939, backed by volume bursts of 22.60M and 19.06M.
• Institutional activity was visible on both ends of the move, pointing to tactical capital flow rather than retail-driven volatility.

News Background
The selloff came amid rising anxiety over delays in potential crypto ETF approvals and a sudden resurgence in U.S. enforcement chatter around centralized exchanges.
At the same time, market participants began speculating about fast-tracked ETF paths for high-volume tokens like DOGE and XRP, prompting whale-led accumulation near local lows.
As a result, DOGE saw rapid directional whiplash — with institutional volumes confirming exits and re-entries.

Price Action Summary

• Range: $0.21 → $0.19 | $0.022 span = 10.44% volatility
• Breakdown Zones: $0.200–$0.198 during 14:00–15:00
• Volume Peaks: 735.09M (14:00), 704.60M (01:00)
• Support Zone: $0.190–$0.191 during late-session base build
• Final Hour (03:37–04:36): Price rose from $0.1923 → $0.1939 (+0.84%)
• Recovery Volume: 22.60M at 04:10, 19.06M at 04:09 during breakout push

Technical Analysis

• Breakdown confirmed by lower-high, lower-low sequence into $0.19 session low
• Selling intensified as $0.200–$0.201 failed to hold during evening session
• Final-hour breakout above $0.1930 confirms localized reversal setup
• Key resistance: $0.1960–$0.1980 for short-term continuation
• Risk remains elevated if DOGE fails to reclaim $0.200 on sustained volume

What Traders Are Watching

• Can DOGE reclaim the $0.198–$0.200 zone to restore trend structure?
• Rejection from $0.196 would likely confirm another leg down toward $0.188
• Watch for follow-through volume above 400M to confirm trend shift
• Institutional wallet activity and futures OI positioning remain critical

Takeaway

• DOGE’s 10% plunge was sudden but it wasn’t retail chaos. High-volume breakdowns and targeted re-entries show that institutions are playing both sides.
• While the bounce offers short-term relief, the macro structure remains vulnerable. Bulls must reclaim $0.200 fast — or risk deeper downside.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.