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XRP’s Implied Volatility Explodes, Suggests 13% Price Swing as Congress’ Crypto Week Kicks Off

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The price of XRP (XRP) is likely to swing wildly over the next week, rising or falling more than 10% during Crypto Week on Capitol Hill, the token’s implied volatility indicates.

Volmex Finance’s seven-day XRP implied volatility (IV) index jumped to an annualized 96% from last week’s 73%, a significant premium to the seven-day historical volatility of 42%. The elevated value translates to an expected 13% price swing for XRP over the coming seven days.

The market is pricing much lower volatility in bitcoin (BTC). The seven-day implied volatility for the largest cryptocurrency has increased only slightly to an annualized 46%, equivalent to an expected weekly price swing of about 6%.

XRP's annualized 7-day implied volatility. (Volmex)

The sharp rise in XRP’s implied volatility comes as the U.S. House of Representatives is set to review three major bills this week that could shape the digital assets industry.

The first is the GENUIS Act, which, if passed, would require stablecoin issuers to hold liquid reserves, accept annual independent audits and publish monthly transparency reports.

Also on the table is the CLARITY Act, which will clarify whether cryptocurrencies fall under the SEC or the CFTC’s purview. Lastly, there is the Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act, which will prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing a retail central bank digital currency. XRP, declared as a strategic U.S. asset by the SEC, stands to benefit from regulatory clarity.

«The GENIUS Act and CLARITY Act are especially important for setting institutional ground rules — clarifying how stablecoins should be issued and overseen, and formally defining the roles of the SEC and CFTC in overseeing crypto markets. Together, these steps address one of the core barriers to institutional participation: legal uncertainty,» Javier Rodriguez-Alarcón, the chief investment officer at crypto liquidity provider XBTO, said in an email.

He added that the rulebook clarity will make long-term capital deployment viable, aligning the world’s largest economy with processes underway in regions like the UAE, where «defined frameworks are already unlocking tokenized markets.»

«If passed, these bills could open the door to wider stablecoin adoption, regulated tokenization, and on-chain financial products with full legal backing,» he noted.

Volatility is direction-agnostic

Note that the implied volatility is direction-agnostic, meaning the expected 13% swing may not necessarily be bullish and can unfold in either direction.

That said, XRP is currently exhibiting strong bullish momentum, trading over 5% higher on the day at $3, the level not seen since early February, according to CoinDesk data.

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Bitcoin Market Top Is ‘Nowhere Near,’ Say Analysts as Price Pauses at $120K

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Bitcoin BTC cooled off during U.S. trading hours Monday after nearly topping $123,000 earlier in the session, but market top calls are premature, analysts said.

BTC slipped below $120,000 late in the U.S. day, shedding most of its overnight advance, but holding on to a modest 0.6% gain over the past 24 hours. Ethereum’s ether ETH slid back below $3,000, while dogecoin DOGE, Cardano’s ADA ADA and Stellar’s XLM XLM declined around 2%-3% on the day.

Among majors, XRP XRP, SUI SUI and Uniswap’s UNI UNI outperformed with 2.5%, 10% and 6% gains, respectively.

Crypto-linked stocks also retraced some of their morning gains, with Strategy (MSTR) and Galaxy (GLXY) still higher 3%-4%, while Coinbase (COIN) gained 1.5%

After BTC surged over 10% in less than a week and some altcoins advancing much more, prices may consolidate as some traders digest the move and realize profits.

Still, this leg of the crypto rally is more likely in the early phases than towards the end, said Jeff Dorman, CIO of digital asset investment firm Arca.

In a Monday investor note, he cited crypto analyst Will Clemente’s observation about previous major tops like March 2024’s spot bitcoin ETF-related peak and the Dec 2024/Jan 2025 frenzy surrounding the Trump election/inauguration, when open interest in altcoin derivatives flipped that of BTC

«The current rally is nowhere near that,» Dorman said.

Open interest share of bitcoin vs. other tokens (Coinalyze/Will Clemente)

Volumes on both centralized and decentralized exchanges rose 23% week-over-week, but still aren’t near to the levels during other broad-market rallies in the past, Dorman added.

Looking at the big picture, bitcoin is being propelled higher by excessive sovereign debt and investors seeking refuge from monetary inflation, said Eric Demuth, CEO of Europe-based crypto exchange Bitpanda.

He said BTC rising to €200,000 ($233,000), is «certainly a possibility,» but the underlying adoption of the asset carries more importance than price targets.

«What happens when Bitcoin becomes permanently embedded in the portfolios of major investors, in the reserves of sovereign states, and in the infrastructure of global banks?,» he said. «Because that’s exactly what’s happening right now.»

In the next years, Dermuth expect bitcoin’s market capitalization to gradually converge to gold’s, currently sitting at over $22 trillion, nine times larger than BTC.

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It’s Crypto Week. Congress Can Future-Proof the U.S. Financial System: Summer Mersinger

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When Congress established the Securities and Exchange Commission in 1934, it was responding to myriad failures of an antiquated financial system. The regulatory architecture that emerged provided the foundation for nearly a century of American financial dominance. Today, Congress faces a comparable moment: the opportunity to modernize America’s financial infrastructure for the digital age.

Two pieces of legislation now before lawmakers, the GENIUS Act on stablecoins and comprehensive market structure reform, represent more than incremental policy adjustments. Together, they constitute America’s response to a fundamental shift in how money moves around the world.

The stakes are considerable. The $240 billion stablecoin market, projected to reach $3.7 trillion by 2030, has emerged as critical financial infrastructure largely outside formal regulatory frameworks. Nearly all major stablecoins peg voluntarily to the dollar, creating a curious phenomenon: private companies building elaborate technology to make American currency work better globally than existing payment systems.

This development comes as America’s monetary hegemony faces its most serious challenge in generations. China’s digital yuan initiatives, BRICS alternative payment systems, and growing reluctance among trading partners to transact in dollars signal a coordinated effort to circumvent American financial influence.

Stablecoins offer America’s most effective response. They expand dollar accessibility globally while preserving the transparency and rule-of-law advantages that make the American financial system attractive. The GENIUS Act would formalize this system, establishing reserve requirements, audit standards and consumer protections that make dollar-backed digital assets both safer and more attractive than alternatives.

Yet currency infrastructure alone cannot suffice. The current approach of applying 20th-century regulations to 21st-century technology has produced predictable results: innovation migrating to jurisdictions with clearer and more welcoming rules.

The November federal court ruling that vacated the SEC’s expanded dealer definition illustrates the problem. Regulators had stretched statutory language so far beyond original intent that judicial intervention became inevitable.

Digital asset platforms integrate functions that traditional finance deliberately separates, creating new efficiencies alongside new risks. Forcing these platforms into regulatory categories designed for different business models produces neither clarity nor protection. Comprehensive market structure legislation would establish bespoke registration frameworks that actually correspond to how these businesses operate, something the crypto ecosystem has been advocating for years.

The integration imperative here is crucial. U.S. financial supremacy in the 20th century derived not from any single innovation but from systematic coordination across monetary policy, market regulation and institutional oversight. Today’s challenge demands similar coherence. Digital dollar infrastructure without a proper market structure leaves innovation vulnerable to regulatory uncertainty. Market structure reform without stablecoin clarity limits the global reach of American monetary policy.

International competition intensifies this urgency. The European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, the U.K.’s stablecoin framework, and similar initiatives across Asia represent direct challenges to American leadership in financial technology. These frameworks may not be superior to what America could construct, but they exist, which is often a decisive advantage in attracting global investment and innovation.

Indeed, there is another step that American elected officials can take to ensure that the promise of crypto isn’t undermined: pass Rep. Tom Emmer’s legislation prohibiting the development in the United States of a central bank digital currency (CBDC). While several other countries have discussed such a rollout, American lawmakers should embrace our domestic privacy ideals and broad anti-surveillance sentiment by supporting this important legislation.

The Senate’s 68-30 passage of the GENIUS Act suggests growing political recognition of crypto’s policy potency and the realities of international competition. Even skeptical Democrats acknowledge the state-of-play, with Senator Mark Warner (D.-VA) recently observing, that if American lawmakers fail to shape cryptocurrency regulation, «others will—and not in ways that serve our interests or democratic values.»

President Trump’s commitment to sign legislation before the August recess creates both opportunity and deadline. The political foundation appears solid: bipartisan support, industry consensus on key principles, and competitive pressure that occasionally motivates effective governance.

Yet significant obstacles remain. Congressional capacity for technical legislation is limited in a heated partisan political climate, and the temptation to pursue symbolic rather than systematic reform runs strong. The complexity of integrating stablecoin regulation with broader market structure reform demands precisely the kind of patient, coordinated policymaking that American politics sometimes struggles to produce.

The choice facing Congress is ultimately straightforward: lead the development of global digital finance infrastructure or cede that role to competitors. For the first time in years, the economic logic, political momentum, and strategic necessity align. Whether American lawmakers can capitalize on this convergence will determine not merely the fate of cryptocurrency regulation, but America’s role in the next generation of global finance.

The 1930s regulatory framework served America well for nearly a century. Its digital successor, if properly constructed, could serve even longer.

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U.S. Banking Regulators Issue Crypto ‘Safekeeping’ Statement, Not Pushing New Policy

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The Federal Reserve and other U.S. banking agencies issued another statement on the proper handling of crypto assets on Monday, outlining the appropriate policies that need to be followed for banks engaging in the «safekeeping» of customers’ digital assets.

The statement sent out from the Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency made clear that these latest considerations do not represent a new policy push.

The trio of agencies set out to clarify that properly keeping such assets involves «controlling the cryptographic keys associated with the crypto-asset in a manner that complies with applicable laws and regulations.»

Apart from cryptographic key management, the seven-page memo outlined some of the demands of money-laundering controls, risk-management oversight, software knowledge and audits.

«This statement discusses how existing laws, regulations and risk-management principles apply to this activity, and does not create any new supervisory expectations,» the agencies said.

The U.S. banking regulators have had a tumultuous relationship with the digital assets space, having issued guidance during the previous administration of President Joe Biden that constrained bankers from easily doing business with crypto firms. But the regulators under President Donald Trump have rolled back that guidance.

The latest sentiments from the agencies come at the start of the U.S. House of Representatives’ self-described Crypto Week in which the lawmakers are expected to approve multiple crypto bills in an effort toward establishing formal U.S. digital assets regulations.

Read More: Former Bitfury Exec Gould Confirmed to Take Over U.S. Banking Agency OCC

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