Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

As bitcoin (BTC) trades near $119,500, having just recently broken through another all-time high of $120,000, digital asset investment products are also breaking records for inflows – but there’s a regional disparity.

According to CoinShares, U.S.-listed funds dominated with $3.74 billion in inflows, while Germany saw $85.7 million in outflows, underscoring a growing divergence in global institutional sentiment.

This robust institutional appetite in the U.S. is exemplified by Vanguard’s evolving stance on crypto investments. Despite once branding bitcoin as an «immature asset class,» the $10 trillion asset manager is now Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy (MSTR)’s largest shareholder, indirectly becoming the most significant Bitcoin holder in traditional finance, as Presto Research recently noted in a daily markets update.

Meanwhile, QCP Capital highlights in a recent note that institutional enthusiasm remains notably robust, exemplified by over $2 billion net inflows into spot BTC ETFs last week.

Yet, derivatives markets suggest a more nuanced approach. Leveraged long positions are expanding aggressively, with perpetual funding rates approaching an elevated 30% and open interest surpassing $43 billion, levels unseen since BTC reclaimed $100k in January. Such aggressive positioning raises caution flags, recalling February’s abrupt $2 billion liquidation event.

“Froth is building,” QCP warns.

BTC Continues to Outpace Luxury Watches

Bitcoin (BTC) is up 27.87% year-to-date and 13.22% in the past month, easily outperforming the luxury watch market’s modest +4.5% rebound in Q2, according to a recent report co-authored by Morgan Stanley and WatchCharts.

Gains were concentrated in flagship models, Daytona, Nautilus, Royal Oak, while brands like Panerai, Breitling, and IWC underperformed. Inventory for watches under $5,000 remains historically elevated, and dealer turnover in that range continues to lag.

“Price recovery remains narrow and concentrated,” the report notes, driven by “renewed interest from high-end collectors and improved global risk appetite.”

Both BTC and watches, it adds, tend to benefit from “expansionary monetary environments and periods of wealth creation.”

But the speculative capital isn’t flowing evenly. Bitcoin has attracted more of the macro-driven bid, with institutional inflows and 24/7 liquidity making it the preferred high-beta asset.

The pandemic-era correlation between BTC and watches, both beneficiaries of easy money and speculative excess, broke down in late 2023 with the approval of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs.

BTC has since matured into a macro-sensitive, institutionally backed asset, while watches have returned to their roots: fashion.

Market Movements:

BTC: Bitcoin briefly approached $123,000 before cooling off, while crypto-related stocks held modest gains and analysts said the market remains far from euphoric, with one projecting BTC’s $2.5 trillion market cap could eventually converge with gold’s $22 trillion.

ETH: ETH surged past $3,079 in early trading on strong volume before retreating in the afternoon to settle near $3,011, forming a textbook breakout-pullback pattern with support holding above the key $3,000 level.

Gold: Gold slipped 0.1% after hitting a three-week high amid renewed tariff threats from President Trump and focus on trade talks and U.S. data, while silver surged to its highest level since September 2011.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets opened mixed Tuesday, with investors brushing off President Trump’s tariff shifts and turning attention to upcoming Chinese economic data, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 remained flat.

S&P 500:RBC Capital Markets raised its 2025 S&P 500 target to 6,250 from 5,730, but unlike Goldman and BofA, it expects little upside from current levels, with the index already above 6,280 as of July 11.

Elsewhere in Crypto

• U.S. Banking Regulators Issue Crypto ‘Safekeeping’ Statement, Not Pushing New Policy (CoinDesk)
• China’s Stablecoin Studies Hint at ‘Tiered’ But Fractured Approach (Decrypt)
• Grayscale Files Confidential Submission for IPO With SEC (CoinDesk)

Bitcoin BTC cooled off during U.S. trading hours Monday after nearly topping $123,000 earlier in the session, but market top calls are premature, analysts said.

BTC slipped below $120,000 late in the U.S. day, shedding most of its overnight advance, but holding on to a modest 0.6% gain over the past 24 hours. Ethereum’s ether ETH slid back below $3,000, while dogecoin DOGE, Cardano’s ADA ADA and Stellar’s XLM XLM declined around 2%-3% on the day.

Among majors, XRP XRP, SUI SUI and Uniswap’s UNI UNI outperformed with 2.5%, 10% and 6% gains, respectively.

Crypto-linked stocks also retraced some of their morning gains, with Strategy (MSTR) and Galaxy (GLXY) still higher 3%-4%, while Coinbase (COIN) gained 1.5%

After BTC surged over 10% in less than a week and some altcoins advancing much more, prices may consolidate as some traders digest the move and realize profits.

Still, this leg of the crypto rally is more likely in the early phases than towards the end, said Jeff Dorman, CIO of digital asset investment firm Arca.

In a Monday investor note, he cited crypto analyst Will Clemente’s observation about previous major tops like March 2024’s spot bitcoin ETF-related peak and the Dec 2024/Jan 2025 frenzy surrounding the Trump election/inauguration, when open interest in altcoin derivatives flipped that of BTC

«The current rally is nowhere near that,» Dorman said.

Volumes on both centralized and decentralized exchanges rose 23% week-over-week, but still aren’t near to the levels during other broad-market rallies in the past, Dorman added.

Looking at the big picture, bitcoin is being propelled higher by excessive sovereign debt and investors seeking refuge from monetary inflation, said Eric Demuth, CEO of Europe-based crypto exchange Bitpanda.

He said BTC rising to €200,000 ($233,000), is «certainly a possibility,» but the underlying adoption of the asset carries more importance than price targets.

«What happens when Bitcoin becomes permanently embedded in the portfolios of major investors, in the reserves of sovereign states, and in the infrastructure of global banks?,» he said. «Because that’s exactly what’s happening right now.»

In the next years, Dermuth expect bitcoin’s market capitalization to gradually converge to gold’s, currently sitting at over $22 trillion, nine times larger than BTC.

When Congress established the Securities and Exchange Commission in 1934, it was responding to myriad failures of an antiquated financial system. The regulatory architecture that emerged provided the foundation for nearly a century of American financial dominance. Today, Congress faces a comparable moment: the opportunity to modernize America’s financial infrastructure for the digital age.

Two pieces of legislation now before lawmakers, the GENIUS Act on stablecoins and comprehensive market structure reform, represent more than incremental policy adjustments. Together, they constitute America’s response to a fundamental shift in how money moves around the world.

The stakes are considerable. The $240 billion stablecoin market, projected to reach $3.7 trillion by 2030, has emerged as critical financial infrastructure largely outside formal regulatory frameworks. Nearly all major stablecoins peg voluntarily to the dollar, creating a curious phenomenon: private companies building elaborate technology to make American currency work better globally than existing payment systems.

This development comes as America’s monetary hegemony faces its most serious challenge in generations. China’s digital yuan initiatives, BRICS alternative payment systems, and growing reluctance among trading partners to transact in dollars signal a coordinated effort to circumvent American financial influence.

Stablecoins offer America’s most effective response. They expand dollar accessibility globally while preserving the transparency and rule-of-law advantages that make the American financial system attractive. The GENIUS Act would formalize this system, establishing reserve requirements, audit standards and consumer protections that make dollar-backed digital assets both safer and more attractive than alternatives.

Yet currency infrastructure alone cannot suffice. The current approach of applying 20th-century regulations to 21st-century technology has produced predictable results: innovation migrating to jurisdictions with clearer and more welcoming rules.

The November federal court ruling that vacated the SEC’s expanded dealer definition illustrates the problem. Regulators had stretched statutory language so far beyond original intent that judicial intervention became inevitable.

Digital asset platforms integrate functions that traditional finance deliberately separates, creating new efficiencies alongside new risks. Forcing these platforms into regulatory categories designed for different business models produces neither clarity nor protection. Comprehensive market structure legislation would establish bespoke registration frameworks that actually correspond to how these businesses operate, something the crypto ecosystem has been advocating for years.

The integration imperative here is crucial. U.S. financial supremacy in the 20th century derived not from any single innovation but from systematic coordination across monetary policy, market regulation and institutional oversight. Today’s challenge demands similar coherence. Digital dollar infrastructure without a proper market structure leaves innovation vulnerable to regulatory uncertainty. Market structure reform without stablecoin clarity limits the global reach of American monetary policy.

International competition intensifies this urgency. The European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, the U.K.’s stablecoin framework, and similar initiatives across Asia represent direct challenges to American leadership in financial technology. These frameworks may not be superior to what America could construct, but they exist, which is often a decisive advantage in attracting global investment and innovation.

Indeed, there is another step that American elected officials can take to ensure that the promise of crypto isn’t undermined: pass Rep. Tom Emmer’s legislation prohibiting the development in the United States of a central bank digital currency (CBDC). While several other countries have discussed such a rollout, American lawmakers should embrace our domestic privacy ideals and broad anti-surveillance sentiment by supporting this important legislation.

The Senate’s 68-30 passage of the GENIUS Act suggests growing political recognition of crypto’s policy potency and the realities of international competition. Even skeptical Democrats acknowledge the state-of-play, with Senator Mark Warner (D.-VA) recently observing, that if American lawmakers fail to shape cryptocurrency regulation, «others will—and not in ways that serve our interests or democratic values.»

President Trump’s commitment to sign legislation before the August recess creates both opportunity and deadline. The political foundation appears solid: bipartisan support, industry consensus on key principles, and competitive pressure that occasionally motivates effective governance.

Yet significant obstacles remain. Congressional capacity for technical legislation is limited in a heated partisan political climate, and the temptation to pursue symbolic rather than systematic reform runs strong. The complexity of integrating stablecoin regulation with broader market structure reform demands precisely the kind of patient, coordinated policymaking that American politics sometimes struggles to produce.

The choice facing Congress is ultimately straightforward: lead the development of global digital finance infrastructure or cede that role to competitors. For the first time in years, the economic logic, political momentum, and strategic necessity align. Whether American lawmakers can capitalize on this convergence will determine not merely the fate of cryptocurrency regulation, but America’s role in the next generation of global finance.

The 1930s regulatory framework served America well for nearly a century. Its digital successor, if properly constructed, could serve even longer.