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Bitcoin Bulls Increase Exposure as Trump’s Pressure on Fed Pushes $15B Into BTC ETFs, Analyst Says

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The U.S.-listed spot bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have attracted billions in investor capital in three months, amid increasing political pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut rates.

The relentless flows are now forcing «under-positioned» traders to chase upside through derivatives, reviving the bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency, according to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research.

«The sharp surge in bitcoin ETF inflows since late April 2025 has been primarily driven by political pressure on the Federal Reserve, with Donald Trump openly demanding that Chair Jerome Powell cut rates to 1% and resign. What began as a partisan push has since broadened, with Federal Housing Finance Agency director Bill Pulte and Senator Cynthia Lummis also calling for Powell to step down, criticizing his perceived hawkish stance,» Thielen said in a note to clients Thursday.

Trump’s repeated attacks on the Federal Reserve have revived memories of Turkish President Erdogan’s similar actions between 2019 and 2021, which led to a broad-based shift away from Turkish assets and a crash in the Lira. Back then, Erdogan issued multiple decrees dismissing central bank officials for not cutting rates.

Meanwhile, Trump has repeatedly called for Powell’s resignation, saying his reluctance to cut rates is costing America billions of dollars. The minutes of the Fed meeting held on July 17-18 showed a growing divide over how policy should proceed from here. According to CNBC, Opinions ranged from a «couple» of officials who said the next cut could come as soon as this month to «some» who thought no reductions this year would be appropriate.

Under-positioned bulls re-enter

The relentless ETF flows, combined with growing pressure on the Fed to cut rates, are finally forcing traders, who have been hesitant to commit to bullish trades, to re-enter the market fully.

«Since mid-April, Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated $15 billion worth of Bitcoin, and notably, this buying has continued uninterrupted, even as Bitcoin has consolidated since mid-May. This steady demand now appears to be forcing underpositioned traders back into the market, as suggested by positioning data from the derivatives space,» Thielen said.

Traders have been chasing call options at strikes $130,000, as CoinDesk noted early this week. A call option represents a bullish bet on the market, with the demand for the $ 130,000 call reflecting expectations for a price surge above that level.

These bullish flows are consistent with the positive seasonality typically observed in July. Data tracked by Coinglass shows BTC has put in a positive performance in July in eight out of the past 12 years, with an average gain of over 7%.

«Combined with historically strong seasonality in July and potential bullish catalysts from upcoming macro data and policy developments, the backdrop remains supportive for further upside,» Thielen noted.

Bitcoin hit a record high of nearly $112,000 on some exchanges late Wednesday, according to data source CoinDesk.

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Deutsche Börse’s Crypto Finance Unveils Connected Custody Settlement for Digital Assets

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Crypto Finance, a subsidiary of Deutsche Börse Group, unveiled AnchorNote, a system designed for institutional clients who want to trade digital assets without moving them out of regulated custody.

The system integrates BridgePort, a network of crypto exchanges and custodians, enabling off-exchange settlement and connectivity to multiple trading venues. By keeping assets in custody while allowing real-time collateral movement, AnchorNote aims to improve capital efficiency and reduce counterparty risk, according to a press release.

The service allows clients to set up dedicated trading lines, with BridgePort handling messaging between venues and Crypto Finance acting as collateral custodian, the press release said. Institutions can manage collateral through a dashboard or integrate the service directly into their existing infrastructure using APIs, it said. APIs, or application programming interfaces, allow software programs to communicate directly with one another.

“Institutional clients face a constant tradeoff between security and capital efficiency,” said Philipp E. Dettwiler, head of custody and settlement at Crypto Finance. “AnchorNote is designed to bridge that gap.”

For traders, the setup eliminates the need for pre-funding exchanges while providing immediate access to liquidity across platforms. In practice, a Swiss bank could pledge bitcoin held in custody and deploy it instantly across multiple trading venues without moving the coins on-chain.

The rollout begins in Switzerland, with Crypto Finance planning to expand across Europe.

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Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, and Dogecoin Lag Stocks as VIX Stirs Up Some Nerves

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It’s a risk-on environment, with stocks leading major cryptocurrencies higher, but Wall Street’s fear gauge, the VIX, is stirring up some nerves.

On Monday, Wall Street’s benchmark index, the S&P 500, set a record high for the fourth consecutive trading day, reaching 6,519 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index also hit lifetime highs, and the Dow Jones traded near the peak recorded on Thursday.

Equities rose, disregarding the bearish September manufacturing survey, as bond yields fell in anticipation of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut on Wednesday. According to the Fed funds futures, traders expect rates to drop to 3% from the present 4.25% within the next 12 months.

BTC vs SPX price performance. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

Still, bitcoin (BTC) lacked clear direction, as it traded back and forth between $114,000 and $117,000, forming an indecisive Doji candle. As of writing, it changed hands at $115,860, continuing a lacklustre trading pattern below record highs of above $124,000 hit in August.

The dour price action is likely due to long-term holders continuing to take profits and countering the bullish pressure from spot ETF inflows.

Other major tokens such as ether (ETH), XRP (XRP) and dogecoin (DOGE) have lost upward momentum too.

Ethereum’s ether token has pulled back from nearly $4,800 to $4,500 in three days, having put in lifetime highs above $5,000 last month. The weakness is perplexing, as ether, popularly known as the internet bond due to its staking yield mechanism, stands to become an attractive investment with the impending Fed rate cuts.

The payments-focused XRP has pulled back to $3.00, marking a weak follow-through to the bullish breakout from the descending triangle confirmed last week. Meanwhile, dogecoin, the leading meme token by market value, has dropped sharply to 26.7 cents from 30.7 cents amid reports of whale selling.

Analysts said that a 25-basis-point rate cut could resume the slow grind higher in BTC. Meanwhile, a surprise 50 bps move could see stocks, crypto and gold go berserk.

Keep an eye on VIX and BTC vol indices

Monday’s rise in U.S. stocks was characterized by an uptick in the VIX index, which represents the options-based implied or expected volatility in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days.

The VIX rose over 6% to 15.68 points. While it still largely hovers at multi-month lows, the Tuesday spike warrants attention for two reasons: First, historically, the two have moved in opposite directions, as evident from the correlation of nearly -90 over a 90-day period.

Secondly, a breakdown in the negative correlation often precedes corrections, as noted by the quant-driven market intelligence platform Menthor Q on X.

«SPX rose with the VIX today. This often signals stretched upside positioning, traders grabbing calls or hedging downside [with puts], leaving markets vulnerable,» Menthor Q said.

The VIX is influenced by demand for options, and Tuesday’s rise in the index could have been led by traders seeking S&P 500 puts or downside protection.

Perhaps, market participants anticipate a correction following the expected 25-basis-point Fed rate cut on Wednesday.

BTC implied volatility rises

Volmex’s bitcoin implied volatility index, which represents the expected price turbulence over 30 days, also rose by 3% Monday, maintaining its positive correlation with VIX.

Note that BTC’s historic positive correlation with implied volatility indices has flipped negative since the spot ETFs went live in January last year and more so since President Trump’s electoral win in November last year.

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Asia Morning Briefing: Fragility or Back on Track? BTC Holds the Line at $115K

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Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded just above $115k in Asia Tuesday morning, slipping slightly after a strong start to the week.

The modest pullback followed a run of inflows into U.S. spot ETFs and lingering optimism that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next week. The moves left traders divided: is this recovery built on fragile foundations, or is crypto firmly back on track after last week’s CPI-driven jitters?

That debate is playing out across research desks. Glassnode’s weekly pulse emphasizes fragility. While ETF inflows surged nearly 200% last week and futures open interest jumped, the underlying spot market looks weak.

Buying conviction remains shallow, Glassnode writes, funding rates have softened, and profit-taking is on the rise with more than 92% of supply in profit.

Options traders have also scaled back downside hedges, pushing volatility spreads lower, which Glassnode warns leaves the market exposed if risk returns. The core message: ETFs and futures are supporting the rally, but without stronger spot flows, BTC remains vulnerable.

QCP takes the other side.

The Singapore-based desk says crypto is “back on track” after CPI confirmed tariff-led inflation without major surprises. They highlight five consecutive days of sizeable BTC ETF inflows, ETH’s biggest inflow in two weeks, and strength in XRP and SOL even after ETF delays.

Traders, they argue, are interpreting regulatory postponements as inevitability rather than rejection. With the Altcoin Season Index at a 90-day high, QCP sees BTC consolidation above $115k as the launchpad for rotation into higher-beta assets.

The divide underscores how Bitcoin’s current range near $115k–$116k is a battleground. Glassnode calls it fragile optimism; QCP calls it momentum. Which side is right may depend on whether ETF inflows keep offsetting profit-taking in the weeks ahead.

(CoinDesk)

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin is consolidating near the $115,000 level as traders square positions ahead of expected U.S. Fed policy moves; institutional demand via spot Bitcoin ETFs is supporting upside

ETH: ETH is trading near $4500 in a key resistance band; gains are being helped by renewed institutional demand, tightening supply (exchange outflows), and positive technical setups.

Gold: Gold continues to hold near record highs, underpinned by expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, inflation risk, and investor demand for safe havens; gains tempered somewhat by profit‑taking and a firmer U.S. dollar

Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 topped 45,000 for the first time Monday, leading Asia-Pacific gains as upbeat U.S.-China trade talks and a TikTok divestment framework lifted sentiment.

S&P 500: The S&P 500 rose 0.5% to close above 6,600 for the first time on Monday as upbeat U.S.-China trade talks and anticipation of a Fed meeting lifted stocks.

Elsewhere in Crypto

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  • Robinhood Expands Private Equity Token Push With New Venture Capital Fund (CoinDesk)
  • Strategy Adds $60 Million to Bitcoin Treasury in Smallest Buy in a Month (Decrypt)
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