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Asia Morning Briefing: Nvidia’s Rally to $4 Trillion Might Have Helped BTC, But Correlation Is Waning

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Nvidia’s ascent to a historic $4 trillion market cap, the first-ever company to achieve this milestone, might be exactly the catalyst bitcoin (BTC) needed to break out of its tightly coiled trading range and surge toward new all-time highs, addressing analysts’ concerns that the crypto market lacked a clear driver.
BTC is currently trading at $110,900, according to CoinDesk market data, after rallying during the U.S. trading hours to over $111,000 and briefly touching all-time high.
Glassnode analysts had previously described Bitcoin’s recent market activity as quiet, characterized by declining on-chain transactions, minimal miner revenues, and suppressed fees.
Rather than interpreting these factors as bearish indicators, Glassnode highlighted a mature market increasingly dominated by large-value institutional transactions and cautious long-term holders.
All this being said, the correlation between Nvidia and BTC might be short-lived as data suggests its weakening.
While the correlation between the GPU giant and BTC peaked above 0.80 during the AI-driven euphoria of early 2024, and the three-month average remains relatively strong at 0.69, the latest data shows a dip to around 0.36, indicating a possible decoupling as investor focus shifts.
Still, Nvidia’s milestone seemed to serve as a potential trigger for BTC breakout from weeks of price inertia.
However, it’s possible that Nvidia’s share prices might correct at some point, given its volatile nature. But this weakening correlation means that BTC price might remain resilient – when that day comes.
Australia Begins Real-World CBDC Tests
Australia’s central bank digital currency (CBDC) initiative, Project Acacia, has entered its next phase as the Reserve Bank of Australia names 24 industry participants selected to trial real-world applications of digital money in tokenized asset markets.
Spearheaded by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Digital Finance Cooperative Research Centre, the project brings together major banks, fintechs, and infrastructure firms to trial programmable digital money in real-world financial workflows.
The pilots will explore settlement across asset classes such as bonds, carbon credits, private markets, and trade receivables.
Nineteen projects will involve live transactions, while five will remain at the proof-of-concept stage. ASIC has granted targeted regulatory relief to allow testing with real assets, continuing its approach of enabling responsible innovation in digital finance.
While Australia is pushing ahead with further CBDC development, the Bank of Canada has shifted its focus away from developing a retail CBDC, amid mounting criticism that such a system could enable government surveillance by allowing authorities to monitor every transaction, unlike the anonymity offered by cash.
Market Movements
BTC: Bitcoin hovered near $109,000 as institutions defended key support levels amid light resistance at $110,000, showing resilience despite dormant wallet activity and regulatory uncertainty, while macro conditions such as a weakening dollar and steady rate cut odds bolstered corporate appetite for risk assets, according to the CoinDesk market insights bot.
ETH: ETH closed a volatile 23-hour session up 2.8 percent, with strong institutional volume and resilience above $2,650 signaling continued bullish positioning amid market uncertainty.
Gold: Gold prices extended losses for a second day, hovering near $3,285 as reduced July Fed rate cut bets, a strong U.S. dollar, and firm Treasury yields pressured the metal, though trade tariff concerns and upcoming FOMC minutes helped limit further downside.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets opened mixed Thursday as investors weighed the Bank of Korea’s rate hold and U.S. President Trump’s move to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, citing unfair trade and retaliation over Bolsonaro’s prosecution, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.45%.
S&P 500: Stock futures were mostly flat Wednesday evening after the S&P 500 clawed back some losses from this week’s tariff-driven decline, with Dow futures slipping just 37 points.
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Deutsche Börse’s Crypto Finance Unveils Connected Custody Settlement for Digital Assets

Crypto Finance, a subsidiary of Deutsche Börse Group, unveiled AnchorNote, a system designed for institutional clients who want to trade digital assets without moving them out of regulated custody.
The system integrates BridgePort, a network of crypto exchanges and custodians, enabling off-exchange settlement and connectivity to multiple trading venues. By keeping assets in custody while allowing real-time collateral movement, AnchorNote aims to improve capital efficiency and reduce counterparty risk, according to a press release.
The service allows clients to set up dedicated trading lines, with BridgePort handling messaging between venues and Crypto Finance acting as collateral custodian, the press release said. Institutions can manage collateral through a dashboard or integrate the service directly into their existing infrastructure using APIs, it said. APIs, or application programming interfaces, allow software programs to communicate directly with one another.
“Institutional clients face a constant tradeoff between security and capital efficiency,” said Philipp E. Dettwiler, head of custody and settlement at Crypto Finance. “AnchorNote is designed to bridge that gap.”
For traders, the setup eliminates the need for pre-funding exchanges while providing immediate access to liquidity across platforms. In practice, a Swiss bank could pledge bitcoin held in custody and deploy it instantly across multiple trading venues without moving the coins on-chain.
The rollout begins in Switzerland, with Crypto Finance planning to expand across Europe.
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Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, and Dogecoin Lag Stocks as VIX Stirs Up Some Nerves

It’s a risk-on environment, with stocks leading major cryptocurrencies higher, but Wall Street’s fear gauge, the VIX, is stirring up some nerves.
On Monday, Wall Street’s benchmark index, the S&P 500, set a record high for the fourth consecutive trading day, reaching 6,519 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index also hit lifetime highs, and the Dow Jones traded near the peak recorded on Thursday.
Equities rose, disregarding the bearish September manufacturing survey, as bond yields fell in anticipation of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut on Wednesday. According to the Fed funds futures, traders expect rates to drop to 3% from the present 4.25% within the next 12 months.
Still, bitcoin (BTC) lacked clear direction, as it traded back and forth between $114,000 and $117,000, forming an indecisive Doji candle. As of writing, it changed hands at $115,860, continuing a lacklustre trading pattern below record highs of above $124,000 hit in August.
The dour price action is likely due to long-term holders continuing to take profits and countering the bullish pressure from spot ETF inflows.
Other major tokens such as ether (ETH), XRP (XRP) and dogecoin (DOGE) have lost upward momentum too.
Ethereum’s ether token has pulled back from nearly $4,800 to $4,500 in three days, having put in lifetime highs above $5,000 last month. The weakness is perplexing, as ether, popularly known as the internet bond due to its staking yield mechanism, stands to become an attractive investment with the impending Fed rate cuts.
The payments-focused XRP has pulled back to $3.00, marking a weak follow-through to the bullish breakout from the descending triangle confirmed last week. Meanwhile, dogecoin, the leading meme token by market value, has dropped sharply to 26.7 cents from 30.7 cents amid reports of whale selling.
Analysts said that a 25-basis-point rate cut could resume the slow grind higher in BTC. Meanwhile, a surprise 50 bps move could see stocks, crypto and gold go berserk.
Keep an eye on VIX and BTC vol indices
Monday’s rise in U.S. stocks was characterized by an uptick in the VIX index, which represents the options-based implied or expected volatility in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days.
The VIX rose over 6% to 15.68 points. While it still largely hovers at multi-month lows, the Tuesday spike warrants attention for two reasons: First, historically, the two have moved in opposite directions, as evident from the correlation of nearly -90 over a 90-day period.
Secondly, a breakdown in the negative correlation often precedes corrections, as noted by the quant-driven market intelligence platform Menthor Q on X.
«SPX rose with the VIX today. This often signals stretched upside positioning, traders grabbing calls or hedging downside [with puts], leaving markets vulnerable,» Menthor Q said.
The VIX is influenced by demand for options, and Tuesday’s rise in the index could have been led by traders seeking S&P 500 puts or downside protection.
Perhaps, market participants anticipate a correction following the expected 25-basis-point Fed rate cut on Wednesday.
BTC implied volatility rises
Volmex’s bitcoin implied volatility index, which represents the expected price turbulence over 30 days, also rose by 3% Monday, maintaining its positive correlation with VIX.
Note that BTC’s historic positive correlation with implied volatility indices has flipped negative since the spot ETFs went live in January last year and more so since President Trump’s electoral win in November last year.
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Asia Morning Briefing: Fragility or Back on Track? BTC Holds the Line at $115K

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Bitcoin (BTC) traded just above $115k in Asia Tuesday morning, slipping slightly after a strong start to the week.
The modest pullback followed a run of inflows into U.S. spot ETFs and lingering optimism that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next week. The moves left traders divided: is this recovery built on fragile foundations, or is crypto firmly back on track after last week’s CPI-driven jitters?
That debate is playing out across research desks. Glassnode’s weekly pulse emphasizes fragility. While ETF inflows surged nearly 200% last week and futures open interest jumped, the underlying spot market looks weak.
Buying conviction remains shallow, Glassnode writes, funding rates have softened, and profit-taking is on the rise with more than 92% of supply in profit.
Options traders have also scaled back downside hedges, pushing volatility spreads lower, which Glassnode warns leaves the market exposed if risk returns. The core message: ETFs and futures are supporting the rally, but without stronger spot flows, BTC remains vulnerable.
QCP takes the other side.
The Singapore-based desk says crypto is “back on track” after CPI confirmed tariff-led inflation without major surprises. They highlight five consecutive days of sizeable BTC ETF inflows, ETH’s biggest inflow in two weeks, and strength in XRP and SOL even after ETF delays.
Traders, they argue, are interpreting regulatory postponements as inevitability rather than rejection. With the Altcoin Season Index at a 90-day high, QCP sees BTC consolidation above $115k as the launchpad for rotation into higher-beta assets.
The divide underscores how Bitcoin’s current range near $115k–$116k is a battleground. Glassnode calls it fragile optimism; QCP calls it momentum. Which side is right may depend on whether ETF inflows keep offsetting profit-taking in the weeks ahead.
Market Movement
BTC: Bitcoin is consolidating near the $115,000 level as traders square positions ahead of expected U.S. Fed policy moves; institutional demand via spot Bitcoin ETFs is supporting upside
ETH: ETH is trading near $4500 in a key resistance band; gains are being helped by renewed institutional demand, tightening supply (exchange outflows), and positive technical setups.
Gold: Gold continues to hold near record highs, underpinned by expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, inflation risk, and investor demand for safe havens; gains tempered somewhat by profit‑taking and a firmer U.S. dollar
Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 topped 45,000 for the first time Monday, leading Asia-Pacific gains as upbeat U.S.-China trade talks and a TikTok divestment framework lifted sentiment.
S&P 500: The S&P 500 rose 0.5% to close above 6,600 for the first time on Monday as upbeat U.S.-China trade talks and anticipation of a Fed meeting lifted stocks.
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