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Bitcoin Starts Surging Toward $110K After Trump Says ‘Fed Rate’ Is 300 Basis Points Too High

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Bitcoin surged to $109,343 on July 9, up 0.8% over the prior 24 hours, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model.

In a Truth Social post at 10:00 a.m. ET, Trump declared that the U.S. federal funds rate is “at least 3 points too high,” referring to a 300 basis point (3%) cut. He argued that delaying such a move imposes an annual burden of $360 billion on refinancing costs. Within 30 minutes, BTC began rising steadily as traders appeared to price in the short-term implications of such a dramatic policy shift, including the potential for renewed liquidity and risk-on sentiment.

In a comprehensive thread on X, macro analysts at The Kobeissi Letter provided a detailed breakdown of Trump’s claim. According to their analysis, total U.S. interest payments have already reached $1.2 trillion over the past 12 months—equivalent to $3.3 billion per day.

They noted that while Trump’s math assumes $360 billion in savings per percentage point across $36 trillion in national debt, only about $29 trillion is held publicly and would be affected by rate changes. Under more realistic assumptions, they estimate that a full 300 bps cut applied gradually could reduce interest expense by roughly $174 billion in the first year, potentially totaling $2.5 trillion over five years if 20% of the debt is refinanced annually.

Despite these potential savings, the report warned that the broader economic consequences of a 3% cut would be historic. No single Fed rate cut in modern history has exceeded 100 basis points — even during the 2008 crisis or the March 2020 emergency move. Implementing a 300 bps reduction outside of a recession, in an economy growing at 3.8% annually, would be unprecedented.

The Kobeissi Letter cautioned that such a move would likely reignite inflation above 5%, trigger a steep drop in the U.S. dollar — potentially exceeding 10% — and cause housing prices to surge due to a sharp decline in mortgage rates. Asset markets would likely rally in the short term, with gold forecasted to hit $5,000, oil above $80 per barrel, and the S&P 500 breaching 7,000. However, they emphasized that the long-term consequences would be destabilizing without major reductions in U.S. government spending.

For Bitcoin, the implications are clear: a sudden drop in interest rates would be viewed as monetary stimulus, likely accelerating capital inflows into hard assets and alternative stores of value like BTC. While analysts continue to debate the likelihood of such cuts, the market’s immediate reaction suggests investors are positioning for upside risk.

Technical Analysis Highlights

  • The BTC price moved sharply within 30 minutes of Trump’s Truth Social post at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • Consolidation persisted earlier in the day, but buying volume increased significantly after Trump’s rate comments.
  • Price tested resistance near $109,761, with higher lows forming above $108,500, indicating bullish structure.
  • Bollinger Bands compressed to their tightest levels in this cycle, historically a signal of pending breakout.
  • Institutional accumulation remains visible via volume clusters near support zones around $108,500–$108,600.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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Indian Crypto Exchange CoinDCX Denies Moving User Funds After WazirX Allegations

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«Please don’t fall for misinformation,» Indian crypto exchange CoinDCX’s Co-founder and CEO, Sumit Gupta, said Saturday amid allegations that the exchange moved user funds to non-compliant entities in Lithuania.

The allegation was reportedly made by another Indian exchange, WazirX, which has been under scrutiny since last year’s $230 million hack.

In an affidavit filed as part of the Singapore High Court proceedings (scheduled for a hearing on July 15, 2025), WazirX reportedly claimed that CoinDCX held user funds in a Lithuania-based entity that was not registered with India’s Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) until February 2025.

Gupta denied these allegations in a message to CoinDesk, stressing that his India-based users’ INR and crypto funds have always been held by Neblio Technologies, our FIU-IND registered entity, which is fully compliant with all Indian laws.

«For the record: CoinDCX did not have any entity in Lithuania until Feb 2025. We only engaged with third-party entities to explore potential global expansion. No business was ever conducted by CoinDCX (Neblio Technologies) in Lithuania, and no user funds were ever moved to or held by any Lithuania-based entity,» Gupta said.

He added that the exchange updated its Terms of Use to make Neblio Technologies the formal contracting party on Feb. 7 this year, and the change was made to strengthen transparency and user trust.

«We did this proactively so that CoinDCX users never face challenges like those seen during the WazirX episode. This approach safeguards users’ interests, and we hope other Indian exchanges adopt the same standard,» Gupta said, adding that the exchange «remains committed, as always, to user safety, transparency, and regulatory compliance.

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Stellar Performance From XLM as It Posts Top 24H Percentage Gain Among Top 20 Cryptos

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On June 11, PayPal announced plans to launch its U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin, PayPal USD (PYUSD), on the Stellar blockchain network, pending regulatory approval from the New York State Department of Financial Services. If approved, the move would mark the expansion of PYUSD beyond its current availability on Ethereum and Solana.

PayPal described Stellar as a blockchain tailored for low-cost, high-speed payments with strong real-world utility. By adding support for Stellar, the company aims to improve the accessibility and usability of PYUSD for payments, cross-border transfers, and financial services. The integration is expected to enhance daily payment options and provide users with expanded access to financing tools such as working capital and small business loans—areas where Stellar is already active.

The press release emphasized Stellar’s existing global infrastructure, including a broad network of on- and off-ramps, local payment systems, and digital wallets, which could help bring PYUSD to users in over 170 countries. PayPal also highlighted potential benefits for liquidity and settlement through PayFi, an emerging digital financing mechanism that would allow businesses to access real-time capital disbursed in PYUSD on Stellar.

May Zabaneh, PayPal’s vice president for digital currencies, said the partnership would help advance the use of blockchain in cross-border payments. Denelle Dixon, CEO of the Stellar Development Foundation, said the collaboration could help bring practical stablecoin use to emerging markets and small businesses globally.

PYUSD is issued by Paxos Trust Company and is fully backed by cash and cash-equivalent reserves, with a fixed redemption value of $1.00 per token.

Earlier this in a short video released by Stellar Foundation, Ian Burrill, a Senior Director at PayPal who manages the crypto engineering team, explained why his firm was excited about the launch of PYUSD on Stellar. Burrill said that Stellar is a fast, low-cost network and it extends PYUSD’s reach to 180 plus countries. He went on to say that enabling merchants to use PYUSD on Stellar lets them send money in real-time, which makes for more efficient capital management.

Technical Analysis

  • Stellar’s XLM token recorded significant price appreciation during a 24-hour trading period from July 11 at 17:00 UTC to July 12 at 16:00 UTC, with shares moving within a $0.071 range representing approximately 20.59% volatility between a session low of $0.345 and high of $0.416, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model.
  • The most notable trading activity occurred during early morning hours on July 12 at 01:00, UTC when XLM shares advanced from $0.354 to $0.393 on substantial volume of 551.38 million units, significantly exceeding the 24-hour average of 234.19 million and establishing technical support near the $0.354 price level.
  • The upward momentum persisted through July 12 at 11:00 UTC, reaching a session high of $0.416, before encountering resistance in the $0.400-$0.403 range where institutional profit-taking appeared to limit further advances.
  • In the final hour of trading from July 12 at 15:47 UTC to 16:46 UTC, XLM demonstrated renewed strength with a 3.89% advance from $0.37 to $0.39, extending the session’s positive momentum.
  • The most significant price movement occurred between 16:03-16:08 UTC when shares climbed from $0.374 to $0.385 on elevated volume of 13.16 million and 17.14 million respectively, well above the hourly average of 3.2 million units.
  • This activity established technical support around $0.385-$0.387 where shares consolidated through the session’s final 30 minutes, with market participants eyeing potential continuation toward the $0.39-$0.40 resistance levels identified in broader technical analysis.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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Another BTC Mining Firm Moves Into Ethereum Reserve, Hailing ETH as ‘Digital Gold’

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Bitcoin mining firm, BTC Digital (BTCT), has moved $1 million of company cash into ether (ETH), which it called its new “digital gold.”

BTCT Moved $1M Into Ethereum Reserve, chief executive officer Siguang Peng said in a press release, adding that Ethereum has “emerged as the foundation of on-chain USD settlement and value transfer.”

«By securing an initial $1 million ETH reserve today—and with plans to scale that position—we are proactively positioning ourselves for decentralized finance, stablecoin issuance, and asset tokenization,” Peng said.

BTCT plans to grow the reserve as upgrades lift capacity and U.S. rules solidify. BTC Digital was previously a bitcoin mining company. The firm recently said that «its 20 MW large–scale cryptocurrency mining project in Georgia has reached a significant milestone.»

The company doesn’t state if it still plans to mine bitcoin, but said it is «building on its origins in large–scale crypto mining, BTCT is undergoing a strategic evolution from «hash–rate provider» to «on–chain financial infrastructure participant,» in the press release.

BTC Digital is the second publicly traded bitcoin miner turning to an ether treasury. Earlier this month Bit Digital (BTBT) shifted its entire treasury from BTC to ETH as it moved to a staking strategy. The move saw its stock jump up to 30%. It has since corrected in a nearly 20% drop.

Meanwhile, BTCT’s stock closed Friday’s trading session 13% higher.

Publicly-known ether treasuries, which include the treasuries of decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), Layer-2 networks, and publicly-traded firms, currently hold more than 1.34 million ETH, according to a public tracker.

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