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Short COIN/Long BTC Trade Will Be a Winner as Soaring Coinbase Nears Overvaluation: 10x Research

Shares in Nasdaq-listed cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) are fast approaching an overvaluation threshold, 10x Research, headed by Markus Thielen, said Friday. Thielen is recommending a pair trade that comprises a short position in COIN and a simultaneous long position in bitcoin BTC.
In a note sent to clients, Thielen explained that Coinbase’s fundamentals, mainly trading volumes, haven’t kept pace with the rally in share prices, which are fast nearing the overvaluation threshold, a classic setup for a «tactical reversal.»
«While Coinbase hasn’t quite breached the +30% overvaluation threshold, it’s approaching fast, and despite being one of the few high-quality, listed crypto plays, its current premium suggests the risk of underperformance ahead,» Thielen detailed. «Traders looking to capitalize on this dislocation might consider going long Bitcoin while shorting Coinbase, or using options by selling a COIN call and buying a BTC call to express the same view with defined risk.»
Fundamental disconnect
According to 10x’s linear regression model, 75% of Coinbase’s stock price action is explained by bitcoin’s price and trading volumes. That means just 25% of COIN’s price action is led by other factors, such as the potential impact of Circle’s IPO or U.S. crypto and macro developments.
In quantitative terms, it suggests that COIN’s price tends to rise by $20 for every $10,000 move in BTC and by $24 for every $100 billion increase in trading volume.
The recent price action suggests the rally is overextended relative to bitcoin’s price and trading volumes. Shares in Coinbase have surged 84% over the past two months, while bitcoin has risen by just 14%.
«Not only is this premium stretched relative to bitcoin’s current price, but it also appears disconnected from underlying crypto trading volumes, which are hovering around $108 billion,» said Thielen. «This rare deviation suggests Coinbase’s valuation is extended and vulnerable to mean reversion.»
The report said that other factors – Circle’s IPO on June 3, the June 17 “GENIUS” stablecoin bill and the buying frenzy from Korean investors – seem to have been priced in.
«As this momentum cools, evident in the recent reversals of Circle, KakaoPay, and Metaplanet, there is growing risk that Coinbase shares could also be nearing a local top,» Thielen said.
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Coinbase Outpaces S&P 500 With 43% June Rise as Stablecoin Narrative Grows: CNBC

Shares of Nasdaq-listed cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) rose 43% this month, making the firm the top performer in the S&P 500 since it joined the index at the end of last month.
June’s run is already the stock’s best since November and caps three straight monthly gains. Coinbase’s shares reached their highest level since their public debut.
COIN hit a $382 high this week before enduring a slight correction, ending the week at $353 and seeing a slight 0.7% drop in after-hours trading to $351.
The wider S&P 500 index rose roughly 5% in June as geopolitical tensions eased.
Washington’s progress on the GENIUS Act, Congress’s first rulebook for dollar-pegged stablecoins, helped shift investor focus from trading fees to stablecoin revenue.
The bill brightened the outlook for Circle, whose shares hit a record high and saw its market cap near that of Coinbase this week.
Coinbase keeps all yield on USDC balances held on its platform and nearly half of other USDC income, equal to about 99 percent of Circle’s revenue, giving shareholders indirect exposure at no added cost, CNBC reported Friday, citing analysts including Citizens’ head of financial technology research Devin Ryan.
Trading, however, remains subdued. Average daily volume on Coinbase has drifted lower since April.
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Robinhood Launches Micro Bitcoin, Solana and XRP Futures Contracts

Robinhood (HOOD) has introduced micro futures on bitcoin (BTC), solana (SOL) and XRP in the United States., expanding its existing crypto futures offering for its nearly 26 million funded accounts.
Micro contracts need far less collateral than full-size futures, letting traders take directional positions while committing a smaller slice of capital.
The contracts offer traders more flexibility to bet on a cryptocurrency’s future price direction or hedge current positions given their smaller size.
The launch rounds out a futures suite that began with BTC and ETH in January. It also comes weeks after the firm closed its $200 million purchase of Bitstamp and finalized a $179 million deal for Canada’s WonderFi.
Robinhood’s data shows that crypto notional volumes have exploded upward over time, reaching $11.7 billion in May. The figure marks a 36% rise month-over-month, and a 65% growth year-over-year.
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Why is XRP Up Today? Trio of Catalysts Sees Token Outperform Wider Crypto Market

XRP climbed 5.5% to $2.19 in the last 24 hours after a trio of catalysts converged to help the cryptocurrency outperform the wider cryptocurrency market.
One of the catalysts was launch of XRP micro futures on Robinhood. The contracts offer traders more flexibility to bet on the cryptocurrency’s future price direction or hedge current positions given their smaller size.
Regulatory fog also thinned. On Friday, Ripple withdrew its cross-appeal in its long-running U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit. The SEC sued Ripple back in 2020 over its XRP sales, alleging these violated securities laws. The SEC is expected to drop its own appeal, leaving last year’s ruling, ordering Ripple to pay a $125 million civil penalty to the SEC, intact. The move could lift a lid that had kept some investors on the sidelines.
On-chain data rounded out the bullish setup. The XRP Ledger logged over a 1.1 million active addresses over the past week according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, who cited Glassnode data.
XRP’s rise saw it outperform the wider crypto market, with the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index rising 1.7% in the last 24 hours.
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