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Short COIN/Long BTC Trade Will Be a Winner as Soaring Coinbase Nears Overvaluation: 10x Research

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Shares in Nasdaq-listed cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) are fast approaching an overvaluation threshold, 10x Research, headed by Markus Thielen, said Friday. Thielen is recommending a pair trade that comprises a short position in COIN and a simultaneous long position in bitcoin BTC.

In a note sent to clients, Thielen explained that Coinbase’s fundamentals, mainly trading volumes, haven’t kept pace with the rally in share prices, which are fast nearing the overvaluation threshold, a classic setup for a «tactical reversal.»

«While Coinbase hasn’t quite breached the +30% overvaluation threshold, it’s approaching fast, and despite being one of the few high-quality, listed crypto plays, its current premium suggests the risk of underperformance ahead,» Thielen detailed. «Traders looking to capitalize on this dislocation might consider going long Bitcoin while shorting Coinbase, or using options by selling a COIN call and buying a BTC call to express the same view with defined risk.»

Fundamental disconnect

According to 10x’s linear regression model, 75% of Coinbase’s stock price action is explained by bitcoin’s price and trading volumes. That means just 25% of COIN’s price action is led by other factors, such as the potential impact of Circle’s IPO or U.S. crypto and macro developments.

In quantitative terms, it suggests that COIN’s price tends to rise by $20 for every $10,000 move in BTC and by $24 for every $100 billion increase in trading volume.

The recent price action suggests the rally is overextended relative to bitcoin’s price and trading volumes. Shares in Coinbase have surged 84% over the past two months, while bitcoin has risen by just 14%.

«Not only is this premium stretched relative to bitcoin’s current price, but it also appears disconnected from underlying crypto trading volumes, which are hovering around $108 billion,» said Thielen. «This rare deviation suggests Coinbase’s valuation is extended and vulnerable to mean reversion.»

The report said that other factors – Circle’s IPO on June 3, the June 17 “GENIUS” stablecoin bill and the buying frenzy from Korean investors – seem to have been priced in.

«As this momentum cools, evident in the recent reversals of Circle, KakaoPay, and Metaplanet, there is growing risk that Coinbase shares could also be nearing a local top,» Thielen said.

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Crypto Trading Firm Keyrock Buys Luxembourg’s Turing Capital in Asset Management Push

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Crypto trading firm Keyrock said it’s expanding into asset and wealth management by acquiring Turing Capital, a Luxembourg-registered alternative investment fund manager.

The deal, announced on Tuesday, marks the launch of Keyrock’s Asset and Wealth Management division, a new business unit dedicated to institutional clients and private investors.

Keyrock, founded in Brussels, Belgium and best known for its work in market making, options and OTC trading, said it will fold Turing Capital’s investment strategies and Luxembourg fund management structure into its wider platform. The division will be led by Turing Capital co-founder Jorge Schnura, who joins Keyrock’s executive committee as president of the unit.

The company said the expansion will allow it to provide services across the full lifecycle of digital assets, from liquidity provision to long-term investment strategies. «In the near future, all assets will live onchain,» Schnura said, noting that the merger positions the group to capture opportunities as traditional financial products migrate to blockchain rails.

Keyrock has also applied for regulatory approval under the EU’s crypto framework MiCA through a filing with Liechtenstein’s financial regulator. If approved, the firm plans to offer portfolio management and advisory services, aiming to compete directly with traditional asset managers as well as crypto-native players.

«Today’s launch sets the stage for our longer-term ambition: bringing asset management on-chain in a way that truly meets institutional standards,» Keyrock CSO Juan David Mendieta said in a statement.

Read more: Stablecoin Payments Projected to Top $1T Annually by 2030, Market Maker Keyrock Says

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Crypto Trading Firm Keyrock Buys Luxembourg’s Turing Capital in Asset Management Push

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on

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Crypto trading firm Keyrock said it’s expanding into asset and wealth management by acquiring Turing Capital, a Luxembourg-registered alternative investment fund manager.

The deal, announced on Tuesday, marks the launch of Keyrock’s Asset and Wealth Management division, a new business unit dedicated to institutional clients and private investors.

Keyrock, founded in Brussels, Belgium and best known for its work in market making, options and OTC trading, said it will fold Turing Capital’s investment strategies and Luxembourg fund management structure into its wider platform. The division will be led by Turing Capital co-founder Jorge Schnura, who joins Keyrock’s executive committee as president of the unit.

The company said the expansion will allow it to provide services across the full lifecycle of digital assets, from liquidity provision to long-term investment strategies. «In the near future, all assets will live onchain,» Schnura said, noting that the merger positions the group to capture opportunities as traditional financial products migrate to blockchain rails.

Keyrock has also applied for regulatory approval under the EU’s crypto framework MiCA through a filing with Liechtenstein’s financial regulator. If approved, the firm plans to offer portfolio management and advisory services, aiming to compete directly with traditional asset managers as well as crypto-native players.

«Today’s launch sets the stage for our longer-term ambition: bringing asset management on-chain in a way that truly meets institutional standards,» Keyrock CSO Juan David Mendieta said in a statement.

Read more: Stablecoin Payments Projected to Top $1T Annually by 2030, Market Maker Keyrock Says

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Gemini Shares Slide 6%, Extending Post-IPO Slump to 24%

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Gemini Space Station (GEMI), the crypto exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, has seen its shares tumble by more than 20% since listing on the Nasdaq last Friday.

The stock is down around 6% on Tuesday, trading at $30.42, and has dropped nearly 24% over the past week. The sharp decline follows an initial surge after the company raised $425 million in its IPO, pricing shares at $28 and valuing the firm at $3.3 billion before trading began.

On its first day, GEMI spiked to $45.89 before closing at $32 — a 14% premium to its offer price. But since hitting that high, shares have plunged more than 34%, erasing most of the early enthusiasm from public market investors.

The broader crypto equity market has remained more stable. Coinbase (COIN), the largest U.S. crypto exchange, is flat over the past week. Robinhood (HOOD), which derives part of its revenue from crypto, is down 3%. Token issuer Circle (CRCL), on the other hand, is up 13% over the same period.

Part of the pressure on Gemini’s stock may stem from its financials. The company posted a $283 million net loss in the first half of 2025, following a $159 million loss in all of 2024. Despite raising fresh capital, the numbers suggest the business is still far from turning a profit.

Compass Point analyst Ed Engel noted that GEMI is currently trading at 26 times its annualized first-half revenue. That multiple — often used to gauge whether a stock is expensive — means investors are paying 26 dollars for every dollar the company is expected to generate in sales this year. For a loss-making company in a volatile sector, that’s a steep price, and could be fueling investor skepticism.

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