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Bitcoin’s Bull Case Strengthens as Dollar Index Slides, Nvidia Hits Record High Amid Recession Cues

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3 месяца ago

26 июня, 2025

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Bitcoin’s BTC price has rebounded nearly 10% from weekend lows, with key developments in traditional markets supporting the case for continued gains ahead.

The dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against major fiat currencies, dropped to 97.27 early Thursday, the lowest level since February 2022, according to data source TradingView. The decline follows growing calls for a July Fed rate cut and disappointing data on housing and consumer confidence.

The weakening of the dollar, a global reserve currency, tends to ease financial conditions, galvanizing increased risk-taking in financial markets.

«DXY [is] now at the lowest level since March 2022. Very bullish implications for global money supply growth and bitcoin,» Andre Dragosch, director, head of research — Europe at Bitwise, said on X.

BTC and NVDA correlation

Meanwhile, shares in Nvidia (NVDA), a bellwether for all things AI and emerging technologies, rose 4%.33% Wednesday, hitting a record high of $154.30.

Both NVDA and BTC bottomed out in late 2022 and have been in an uptrend ever since. As of the time of writing, the 90-day correlation coefficient between NVDA and BTC was 0.80, indicating a strong positive relationship between the two assets.

NVDA’s record high came a day after the Nasdaq futures formed a bullish golden cross, signaling a continued risk-on rally.

Bonds teasing recession

The yield on the U.S. two-year note, which is more sensitive to interest rate expectations, dropped to 3.76% early today, the lowest since May 2. The yield has declined by 24 basis points this month. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield has declined by 16 basis points to 4.27%.

As such, the spread between the 10- and two-year yields has widened in a move known as the steepening of the yield curve.

Historically, recessions have begun with the two-year yield falling alongside a steepening of the yield curve, as noted by wealth advisor Kurt S. Altrichter on X.

«We’re not there yet, but we’re dancing on the edge. The 10Y-2Y spread is bull-steepening. If the 2Y breaks lower, it signals the Fed has lost control. That’s your cue. Watch it closely,» Altrichter said.

Consumer expectations signal an impending recession

Consumer confidence dropped last month to a reading of 93, registering a 5.4-point decline from May, with Republican party respondents leading the decline, according to data released by the Conference Board on Tuesday.

More importantly, the expectations index, which represents the short-term outlook, slipped to 69, well below the 80 threshold that typically signals an impending recession.

Traders price in Fed rate cuts

These developments, coupled with the oil price slide and the talk of a July rate cut by some Fed officials, have likely prompted traders to price in an early rate cut by the Fed. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool.

According to Bloomberg, interest rate swaps are now pricing around four basis points of easing into the July Fed meeting, up from near zero a week ago. Furthermore, traders anticipate a combined 60 basis points of easing over the remaining four meetings this year, up from 45 basis points a week ago.

Business

Crypto Trading Firm Keyrock Buys Luxembourg’s Turing Capital in Asset Management Push

Published

9 часов ago

16 сентября, 2025

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Crypto trading firm Keyrock said it’s expanding into asset and wealth management by acquiring Turing Capital, a Luxembourg-registered alternative investment fund manager.

The deal, announced on Tuesday, marks the launch of Keyrock’s Asset and Wealth Management division, a new business unit dedicated to institutional clients and private investors.

Keyrock, founded in Brussels, Belgium and best known for its work in market making, options and OTC trading, said it will fold Turing Capital’s investment strategies and Luxembourg fund management structure into its wider platform. The division will be led by Turing Capital co-founder Jorge Schnura, who joins Keyrock’s executive committee as president of the unit.

The company said the expansion will allow it to provide services across the full lifecycle of digital assets, from liquidity provision to long-term investment strategies. «In the near future, all assets will live onchain,» Schnura said, noting that the merger positions the group to capture opportunities as traditional financial products migrate to blockchain rails.

Keyrock has also applied for regulatory approval under the EU’s crypto framework MiCA through a filing with Liechtenstein’s financial regulator. If approved, the firm plans to offer portfolio management and advisory services, aiming to compete directly with traditional asset managers as well as crypto-native players.

«Today’s launch sets the stage for our longer-term ambition: bringing asset management on-chain in a way that truly meets institutional standards,» Keyrock CSO Juan David Mendieta said in a statement.

Business

Crypto Trading Firm Keyrock Buys Luxembourg’s Turing Capital in Asset Management Push

Published

9 часов ago

16 сентября, 2025

admin

Crypto trading firm Keyrock said it’s expanding into asset and wealth management by acquiring Turing Capital, a Luxembourg-registered alternative investment fund manager.

The deal, announced on Tuesday, marks the launch of Keyrock’s Asset and Wealth Management division, a new business unit dedicated to institutional clients and private investors.

Business

Gemini Shares Slide 6%, Extending Post-IPO Slump to 24%

Published

9 часов ago

16 сентября, 2025

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Gemini Space Station (GEMI), the crypto exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, has seen its shares tumble by more than 20% since listing on the Nasdaq last Friday.

The stock is down around 6% on Tuesday, trading at $30.42, and has dropped nearly 24% over the past week. The sharp decline follows an initial surge after the company raised $425 million in its IPO, pricing shares at $28 and valuing the firm at $3.3 billion before trading began.

On its first day, GEMI spiked to $45.89 before closing at $32 — a 14% premium to its offer price. But since hitting that high, shares have plunged more than 34%, erasing most of the early enthusiasm from public market investors.

The broader crypto equity market has remained more stable. Coinbase (COIN), the largest U.S. crypto exchange, is flat over the past week. Robinhood (HOOD), which derives part of its revenue from crypto, is down 3%. Token issuer Circle (CRCL), on the other hand, is up 13% over the same period.

Part of the pressure on Gemini’s stock may stem from its financials. The company posted a $283 million net loss in the first half of 2025, following a $159 million loss in all of 2024. Despite raising fresh capital, the numbers suggest the business is still far from turning a profit.

Compass Point analyst Ed Engel noted that GEMI is currently trading at 26 times its annualized first-half revenue. That multiple — often used to gauge whether a stock is expensive — means investors are paying 26 dollars for every dollar the company is expected to generate in sales this year. For a loss-making company in a volatile sector, that’s a steep price, and could be fueling investor skepticism.