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Bitcoin’s Bull Case Strengthens as Dollar Index Slides, Nvidia Hits Record High Amid Recession Cues

Bitcoin’s BTC price has rebounded nearly 10% from weekend lows, with key developments in traditional markets supporting the case for continued gains ahead.
The dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against major fiat currencies, dropped to 97.27 early Thursday, the lowest level since February 2022, according to data source TradingView. The decline follows growing calls for a July Fed rate cut and disappointing data on housing and consumer confidence.
The weakening of the dollar, a global reserve currency, tends to ease financial conditions, galvanizing increased risk-taking in financial markets.
«DXY [is] now at the lowest level since March 2022. Very bullish implications for global money supply growth and bitcoin,» Andre Dragosch, director, head of research — Europe at Bitwise, said on X.
BTC and NVDA correlation
Meanwhile, shares in Nvidia (NVDA), a bellwether for all things AI and emerging technologies, rose 4%.33% Wednesday, hitting a record high of $154.30.
Both NVDA and BTC bottomed out in late 2022 and have been in an uptrend ever since. As of the time of writing, the 90-day correlation coefficient between NVDA and BTC was 0.80, indicating a strong positive relationship between the two assets.
NVDA’s record high came a day after the Nasdaq futures formed a bullish golden cross, signaling a continued risk-on rally.
Bonds teasing recession
The yield on the U.S. two-year note, which is more sensitive to interest rate expectations, dropped to 3.76% early today, the lowest since May 2. The yield has declined by 24 basis points this month. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield has declined by 16 basis points to 4.27%.
As such, the spread between the 10- and two-year yields has widened in a move known as the steepening of the yield curve.
Historically, recessions have begun with the two-year yield falling alongside a steepening of the yield curve, as noted by wealth advisor Kurt S. Altrichter on X.
«We’re not there yet, but we’re dancing on the edge. The 10Y-2Y spread is bull-steepening. If the 2Y breaks lower, it signals the Fed has lost control. That’s your cue. Watch it closely,» Altrichter said.
Consumer expectations signal an impending recession
Consumer confidence dropped last month to a reading of 93, registering a 5.4-point decline from May, with Republican party respondents leading the decline, according to data released by the Conference Board on Tuesday.
More importantly, the expectations index, which represents the short-term outlook, slipped to 69, well below the 80 threshold that typically signals an impending recession.
Traders price in Fed rate cuts
These developments, coupled with the oil price slide and the talk of a July rate cut by some Fed officials, have likely prompted traders to price in an early rate cut by the Fed. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool.
According to Bloomberg, interest rate swaps are now pricing around four basis points of easing into the July Fed meeting, up from near zero a week ago. Furthermore, traders anticipate a combined 60 basis points of easing over the remaining four meetings this year, up from 45 basis points a week ago.
Read more: Bitcoin Could Spike to $120K, Here Are 4 Factors Boosting the Case for a BTC Bull Run
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Coinbase Outpaces S&P 500 With 43% June Rise as Stablecoin Narrative Grows: CNBC

Shares of Nasdaq-listed cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) rose 43% this month, making the firm the top performer in the S&P 500 since it joined the index at the end of last month.
June’s run is already the stock’s best since November and caps three straight monthly gains. Coinbase’s shares reached their highest level since their public debut.
COIN hit a $382 high this week before enduring a slight correction, ending the week at $353 and seeing a slight 0.7% drop in after-hours trading to $351.
The wider S&P 500 index rose roughly 5% in June as geopolitical tensions eased.
Washington’s progress on the GENIUS Act, Congress’s first rulebook for dollar-pegged stablecoins, helped shift investor focus from trading fees to stablecoin revenue.
The bill brightened the outlook for Circle, whose shares hit a record high and saw its market cap near that of Coinbase this week.
Coinbase keeps all yield on USDC balances held on its platform and nearly half of other USDC income, equal to about 99 percent of Circle’s revenue, giving shareholders indirect exposure at no added cost, CNBC reported Friday, citing analysts including Citizens’ head of financial technology research Devin Ryan.
Trading, however, remains subdued. Average daily volume on Coinbase has drifted lower since April.
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Robinhood Launches Micro Bitcoin, Solana and XRP Futures Contracts

Robinhood (HOOD) has introduced micro futures on bitcoin (BTC), solana (SOL) and XRP in the United States., expanding its existing crypto futures offering for its nearly 26 million funded accounts.
Micro contracts need far less collateral than full-size futures, letting traders take directional positions while committing a smaller slice of capital.
The contracts offer traders more flexibility to bet on a cryptocurrency’s future price direction or hedge current positions given their smaller size.
The launch rounds out a futures suite that began with BTC and ETH in January. It also comes weeks after the firm closed its $200 million purchase of Bitstamp and finalized a $179 million deal for Canada’s WonderFi.
Robinhood’s data shows that crypto notional volumes have exploded upward over time, reaching $11.7 billion in May. The figure marks a 36% rise month-over-month, and a 65% growth year-over-year.
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Why is XRP Up Today? Trio of Catalysts Sees Token Outperform Wider Crypto Market

XRP climbed 5.5% to $2.19 in the last 24 hours after a trio of catalysts converged to help the cryptocurrency outperform the wider cryptocurrency market.
One of the catalysts was launch of XRP micro futures on Robinhood. The contracts offer traders more flexibility to bet on the cryptocurrency’s future price direction or hedge current positions given their smaller size.
Regulatory fog also thinned. On Friday, Ripple withdrew its cross-appeal in its long-running U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit. The SEC sued Ripple back in 2020 over its XRP sales, alleging these violated securities laws. The SEC is expected to drop its own appeal, leaving last year’s ruling, ordering Ripple to pay a $125 million civil penalty to the SEC, intact. The move could lift a lid that had kept some investors on the sidelines.
On-chain data rounded out the bullish setup. The XRP Ledger logged over a 1.1 million active addresses over the past week according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, who cited Glassnode data.
XRP’s rise saw it outperform the wider crypto market, with the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index rising 1.7% in the last 24 hours.
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