By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Risk assets, cryptocurrencies among them, breathed a sigh of relief after President Donald Trump ruled out an immediate entry into the Israel-Iran war, saying he may wait two more weeks before deciding whether to add U.S. firepower to the conflict.

Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering around $106,000, up 0.9% in the past day, and the broader CoinDesk 20 index has gained 0.77%. In traditional markets, oil prices slipped 1.7% after a three-week rally and European stock indexes rose. U.S. equity futures are slightly higher than they were this time Thursday.

Trump’s comment reduced the odds of U.S. military action before the end of the month on prediction market Polymarket from around 70% to 40%. If the timeline is expanded to next month, the odds are now sitting at 62%, down from 90% on June 17.

“While the immediate prospect of a U.S. intervention in Iran may have diminished, the fact this is reportedly a two-week hiatus means it will remain a live issue for the markets going into next week,” AJ Bell investment analyst Dan Coatsworth told Yahoo Finance.

Despite the crypto market’s relative stability, analysts see diverging risks. Glassnode, a blockchain analytics company, said subdued on-chain activity could reflect a more mature market dominated by institutions making large, infrequent transactions.

A new report from CryptoQuant, on the other hand, warns bitcoin could drop to $92,000 or lower, if demand fails to rebound. ETF flows are down 60% since April, whale buying has slowed by half, and short-term holders have dumped 800,000 BTC since late May. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • June 20: Proof-of-stake blockchain BlackCoin (BLK) activates SegWit on mainnet, improving security and performance. Nodes must be upgraded to release v26.2.0 before this date. Wallets from 13.2 can be used in 26.2.x.
  • June 25: ZIGChain (ZIG) mainnet will go live.
  • June 30: CME Group will introduce spot-quoted futures, pending regulatory approval, allowing trading in bitcoin, ether and major U.S. equity indices with contracts holdable for up to five years.
• Macro
  • June 20, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases May producer price inflation data.
    • PPI MoM Est. 0% vs. Prev. -0.8%
    • PPI YoY Prev. 2%
  • June 23, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases April retail sales data.
    • Retail Sales MoM Prev. 0.5%
    • Retail Sales YoY Prev. 4.3%
  • June 23, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (Flash) June U.S. data on manufacturing and services activity.
    • Composite PMI Prev. 53
    • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 52
    • Services PMI Prev. 53.7
  • June 23, 3 p.m.: Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Censuses releases Q1 GDP data.
    • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prev. 1.1%
    • GDP Growth Rate YoY Prev. 2.1%
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • June 23 (TBC): HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE), post-market, $-0.12

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Compound DAO is set to vote on a proposal to create the Compound Foundation, a non-profit to drive protocol growth and strategy. It calls for an 18-month plan and requests $9 million in COMP. Voting ends June 20.
  • Arbitrum DAO is voting on a proposal to launch DRIP, an $80M incentives program targeting specific DeFi activity. Managed by a foundation-led committee, DRIP would reward users directly and allow the DAO to shut it down via vote. Voting ends June 20.
  • ApeCoin DAO is voting on whether to sunset the decentralized autonomous organization and launch ApeCo, a new entity established by Yuga Labs with a mission to “supercharge the APE ecosystem.” Voting ends June 24.
  • Polkadot Community is voting on launching a non-custodial Polkadot branded payment card to “to bridge the gap between digital assets in the Polkadot ecosystem and everyday spending.” Voting ends July 9.
• Unlocks
  • June 30: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.83% of its circulating supply worth $17.34 million.
  • July 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating supply worth $120.99 million.
  • July 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.67% of its circulating supply worth $11.23 million.
• Token Launches
  • June 26: Coinbase to delist Helium Mobile (MOBILE), Render (RNDR), Ribbon Finance (RBN) and Synapse (SYN).

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight.

• Day 2 of 3: BTC Prague 2025
• June 24-26: Blockworks’ Permissionless IV (New York)
• June 25-26: Bitcoin Policy Institute’s Bitcoin Policy Summit 2025 (Washington)
• June 26: The Injective Summit (New York)
• June 26-27: Istanbul Blockchain Week
• June 30 to July 3: Ethereum Community Conference (Cannes, France)

Token Talk

by Shaurya Malwa and Oliver Knight

• Jupiter DEX is pausing all DAO votes until end-2025, citing governance issues and a need to reset its structure during a «critical period» for DeFi.
• Exec Kash Dhanda said the current DAO setup breeds mistrust and FUD, preventing the team, holders and platform from working cohesively.
• A new governance model will be introduced next year, aiming to «unify rather than divide» the Jupiter community.
• Staking rewards (ASR) will continue at 50M JUP per quarter, but no new DAO-funded workgroups or emissions will be created in the meantime.
• The JUP token has dropped nearly 22% in the past month, and Friday’s governance news had minimal impact, with the price hovering near $0.40.

Derivatives Positioning

• Open interest (OI) across top derivatives venues remains stable, but subdued relative to earlier highs.
• According to Velo data, respective OI sits at $56.73 billion, still well below the $65.95 billion peak seen on June 11.
• Binance has regained ground with $24.5 billion in OI, though this remains short of its previous $27.9 billion high. BCH stands out as a notable mover, recording the third-largest notional OI gain over the last 24 hours with an $83.4 million increase, following BTC and ETH according to Laevitas.
• BTC and ETH options positioning remains concentrated around out-of-the-money strikes, despite a minor expiry today.
• On Deribit, ETH options contract OI reached a yearly high of 2.58 million, with most exposure set to expire on June 27.
• ETH skew remains heavily call-dominated at the $3,200 strike, while BTC interest is clustered between $100,000 and $110,000.
• ETH’s put/call ratio stands at 0.43, and BTC’s at 0.63. Notional flows are similarly aligned, with top-traded contracts including 27JUN25 $2,600C and $100,000P, reflecting both directional interest and tail-risk hedging.
• Funding rate APRs across perpetual swaps remain broadly positive according to Velo data, with BTC and ETH both printing 10.95% on Bybit and Hyperliquid. Binance funding is also elevated at 8.98% for BTC and 10.05% for ETH, while Deribit remains flat.
• In contrast, BNB shows sharp negative prints (–22.73% on Bybit and –13.04% on Hyperliquid), hinting at short pressure amid falling dominance. Altcoin funding is similarly mixed, with names like AAVE and DOGE staying positive while SOL and AVAX are little changed.
• Coinglass data shows $131.89 million in 24-hour liquidations, skewed 56% toward shorts. ETH led notional liquidations at $32.2 million, followed by BTC at $28.7 million.
• Binance heatmaps reveal dense liquidation clusters between $106,000 and $108,000, indicating that recent price action cleared layered short positioning.
• BTC dominance continues to hover around 65%, and while short liquidations hint at squeezed leverage, directional conviction appears measured heading into the next major expiry window.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 1.63% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $106,015.34 (24hrs: +0.98%)
• ETH is up 1.85% at $2,554.74 (24hrs: +0.46%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 1.3% at 3,034.29 (24hrs: +0.76%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 7 bps at 3.05%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0071% (7.7451% annualized) on OKX

• DXY is down 0.30% at 98.61
• Gold futures are down 0.99% at $3,374.40
• Silver futures are down 2.20% at $36.10
• Nikkei 225 closed down 0.22% at 38,403.23
• Hang Seng closed up 1.26% at 23,530.48
• FTSE is up 0.44% at 8,830.90
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.80% at 5,238.57
• DJIA closed on Wednesday down 0.10% at 42,171.66
• S&P 500 closed down 0.03% at 5,980.87
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.13% at 19,546.27
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.20% at 26,506.00
• S&P 40 Latin America closed on Thursday down 0.15% at 2,614.38
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 2 bps at 4.42%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.24% at 5,967.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.25% at 21,666.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.21% at 42,098.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 65% (0.25%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02407 (-0.08%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 864 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $53.25
• Total Fees: 5.07 BTC / $537,039.75
• CME Futures Open Interest: 154,500 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 31.3 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 8.87%

Technical Analysis

• Bitcoin reclaimed its monthly open following a successful retest of the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), signaling a potential shift in short-term momentum. The asset is now trading above Monday’s low and appears to be making a move to recapture the full Monday range.
• If successful, this would open the path toward the Monday high near $109,000. However, the price is currently capped by the 20-day EMA.
• For bulls to maintain control, it will be crucial for BTC to continue closing above the monthly open.
• A decisive close above the January highs would further invalidate the prevailing weekly swing failure pattern, reinforcing the bullish case and potentially paving the way for a broader continuation to the upside.

Crypto Equities

U.S. markets were closed on Thursday due to Juneteenth federal holiday

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed on Thursday at C$26.65 (+2.03%)

Strategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $369.03 (-1.64%), +1.1% at $373.10 in pre-market

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $295.29 (+16.32%), +1.03% at $298.34

Circle (CRCL): closed at $199.59 (+33.82%), +10.53% at $220.60

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $14.49 (-1.23%), +1.73% at $14.74

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $9.94 (+2.9%), +1.51% at $10.09

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $11.9 (+0.08%), +0.42% at $11.95

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.18 (+3.15%), +1.42% at $9.31

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $18.7 (+0.11%)

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $31.94 (+11.95%), +8.39% at $34.62

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $30.14 (+0.43%), +3.65% at $31.24

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: $0
• Cumulative net flows: $46.63 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.22 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $0
• Cumulative net flows: $3.92 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~3.98 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• Bitcoin dominance has reached 65%, currently trading near the upper boundary of a well-defined parallel channel that has guided the trend since mid-May.

While You Were Sleeping

• Europe Set for Iran Talks as Trump Signals 2-Week Window to Decide on Attack (Financial Times): Britain, France and Germany will meet Iranian officials in Geneva on Friday to restart high-level nuclear talks and push for renewed inspections with full access to Iran’s atomic facilities.
• Bitcoin Steady Above $104K as Traders Eye Historically Bullish Second Half (CoinDesk): Bitcoin may stay stuck between $102K and $108K as traders hedge downside in options markets while month-end flows, rebalancing and weak catalysts weigh on near-term momentum.
• Arizona Moves Closer to Creating Bitcoin Reserve as Bill Passes Final Senate Vote (CoinDesk): The legislation, which still needs House approval, would update Arizona’s laws on forfeiture, allowing the state to hold abandoned digital assets as unclaimed property.
• North Korean Hackers Are Targeting Top Crypto Firms With Malware Hidden in Job Applications (CoinDesk): Hackers are using fake career sites impersonating top crypto firms to trick jobseekers into installing a Python-based remote access trojan that steals credentials and wallet data from 80+ browser extensions.
• Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Poised for More Power (The Wall Street Journal): Israeli strikes have raised the risk of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s fall, giving the Revolutionary Guard an opportunity to install his successor and usher in an even more radical regime.
• U.K. Retail Sales Drop 2.7% in Worrying Sign for Economy (Bloomberg): May’s contraction was far deeper than the 0.5% decline economists forecast, adding pressure to the Labour party’s fiscal plans and raising the risk of tax hikes in Rachel Reeves’ autumn budget.

In the Ether