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Bitcoin Steady Above $104K as Traders Eye Historically Bullish Second Half

Crypto markets drifted lower on Thursday, caught between hawkish macro guidance, looming global trade deadlines, and fading volatility. Bitcoin BTC hovered near $104,700 during Asia hours, slipping 1.2% over 24 hours, while ether ETH traded just below $2,860, down 1.8% on the day.
The soft price action tracks with broader macro unease following Wednesday’s FOMC hold, where the Fed kept rates unchanged but reiterated a cautious, inflation-sensitive stance.
Seasonality is starting to show
Historically subdued during the June-July stretch, crypto markets have entered a lull with BTC front-end implied volumes slipping under 40%, erasing the risk premium from recent geopolitical tension, Singapore-based QCP Capital noted in a Thursday market broadcast.
Open interest across BTC and ETH perps remains flat, and option markets skew negative, with puts trading at a premium to calls – a sign of traders hedging against short-term pullbacks.
“There’s been no change to the technical picture, which remains supportive of another push to the topside,” said Joel Kruger, strategist at LMAX Group, in an email to CoinDesk. “BTC continues to consolidate bullishly, and a move through recent highs could set up a run toward $145,000.”
Ether still lags its 2021 highs but is gaining momentum, he added. “Clearing $2,900 could bring $3,400 into play,” Kruger said.
One bright spot for crypto is the U.S. Senate’s passage of a stablecoin framework, which adds another building block to what is becoming a more regulatory-friendly global environment. That’s reinforced a broader institutional conviction.
“Globally, we’re seeing continued progress that promises greater clarity and a more welcoming environment for institutional crypto adoption,” Kruger added.
Still, the near-term setup remains cautious. Month-end OPEX flows, systematic rebalancing, and a lack of fresh catalysts could keep BTC stuck in its $ 102,000–$ 108,000 band for now.
But with H2 historically strong for crypto, some desks are already looking ahead. “The worst may be behind us,” Kruger said. “And the next leg up could catch many off guard.”
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Coinbase Outpaces S&P 500 With 43% June Rise as Stablecoin Narrative Grows: CNBC

Shares of Nasdaq-listed cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) rose 43% this month, making the firm the top performer in the S&P 500 since it joined the index at the end of last month.
June’s run is already the stock’s best since November and caps three straight monthly gains. Coinbase’s shares reached their highest level since their public debut.
COIN hit a $382 high this week before enduring a slight correction, ending the week at $353 and seeing a slight 0.7% drop in after-hours trading to $351.
The wider S&P 500 index rose roughly 5% in June as geopolitical tensions eased.
Washington’s progress on the GENIUS Act, Congress’s first rulebook for dollar-pegged stablecoins, helped shift investor focus from trading fees to stablecoin revenue.
The bill brightened the outlook for Circle, whose shares hit a record high and saw its market cap near that of Coinbase this week.
Coinbase keeps all yield on USDC balances held on its platform and nearly half of other USDC income, equal to about 99 percent of Circle’s revenue, giving shareholders indirect exposure at no added cost, CNBC reported Friday, citing analysts including Citizens’ head of financial technology research Devin Ryan.
Trading, however, remains subdued. Average daily volume on Coinbase has drifted lower since April.
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Robinhood Launches Micro Bitcoin, Solana and XRP Futures Contracts

Robinhood (HOOD) has introduced micro futures on bitcoin (BTC), solana (SOL) and XRP in the United States., expanding its existing crypto futures offering for its nearly 26 million funded accounts.
Micro contracts need far less collateral than full-size futures, letting traders take directional positions while committing a smaller slice of capital.
The contracts offer traders more flexibility to bet on a cryptocurrency’s future price direction or hedge current positions given their smaller size.
The launch rounds out a futures suite that began with BTC and ETH in January. It also comes weeks after the firm closed its $200 million purchase of Bitstamp and finalized a $179 million deal for Canada’s WonderFi.
Robinhood’s data shows that crypto notional volumes have exploded upward over time, reaching $11.7 billion in May. The figure marks a 36% rise month-over-month, and a 65% growth year-over-year.
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Why is XRP Up Today? Trio of Catalysts Sees Token Outperform Wider Crypto Market

XRP climbed 5.5% to $2.19 in the last 24 hours after a trio of catalysts converged to help the cryptocurrency outperform the wider cryptocurrency market.
One of the catalysts was launch of XRP micro futures on Robinhood. The contracts offer traders more flexibility to bet on the cryptocurrency’s future price direction or hedge current positions given their smaller size.
Regulatory fog also thinned. On Friday, Ripple withdrew its cross-appeal in its long-running U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit. The SEC sued Ripple back in 2020 over its XRP sales, alleging these violated securities laws. The SEC is expected to drop its own appeal, leaving last year’s ruling, ordering Ripple to pay a $125 million civil penalty to the SEC, intact. The move could lift a lid that had kept some investors on the sidelines.
On-chain data rounded out the bullish setup. The XRP Ledger logged over a 1.1 million active addresses over the past week according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, who cited Glassnode data.
XRP’s rise saw it outperform the wider crypto market, with the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index rising 1.7% in the last 24 hours.
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